I tend to agree with most of those, but I don’t think that Carson’s voters (voter?) go to Cruz – he alienated the die-hard Carson supporters with his dirty tricks in Iowa. I reckon they’d go to Rubio/Kaisich and I imagine that most of them are #nevertrump folks. But of course they are effectively a rounding-error in number and not concentrated in any one state.
I always enjoy Yglesias’ articles even if I think some of his conclusions are “iffy”. But this graphic from that article was very telling about the whole David Duke/KKK thing:
This is a good example of why I’m not as worried as some in this thread about a Trump nomination: the values of American citizens overall are not the values of Trump supporters. Trump’s rise has highlighted to me that racism in the US is more entrenched and embraced by a wider base than I had thought/hoped… but it is NOT a majority opinion.
Timex
6104
The problem may be that the Republican primary turnouts this year are huge. That may translate into the general.
MikeJ
6106
I figured high turnout was just a sign that people care who the nominee is, rather than that they are very excited about supporting the Trump. At least that’s what I hope…
Jesus fucking Christ, America. Get your shit together.
On the plus side, historically primary turnout it not predictive of general election results. On the downside, Trump doesn’t fit well with history - maybe McGovern or Goldwater. The other thing to consider is that Trump’s turnout is going to be all white people - and where they turn out will be important. The midwest states - PA, MI, WI and IL will be very important states to hold. Trump should also have the effect of driving up minority voter turnout even if Clinton fails to generate any enthusiasm. There will probably be no more important GOTV drive than November.
And this brings us to the wildcard - will Republicans coalesce behind Trump? Most (but not all) of what I’m hearing and reading from the establishment Republicans isn’t so much Trump’s racism and demagoguery they see as problem, or even that he is ill suited to becoming commander and chief; rather, it’s his liberal positions on trade and health care - his economic populism (which his tax plan completely invalidates) that they view as being un-Republican. If Republicans come out actively against Trump - there are some Republicans who think it would be worse for the party for Trump to win the election - he will not have the necessary party support in the general election, which will have some impact on Republican voter turnout.
And because it bears relinking (Rightbug posted it originally), this article on authoritarianism perfectly explains the rise of Trump. And make no mistake, even should Trump lose, they’ll be another to replace him in future elections:
Yeah, don’t get me wrong - larger turnouts are always better for the party involved, but this primary is a different beast than 2008 in so many ways. I wouldn’t panic if I was a Democrat strategist, but it is still noteworthy.
Oghier
6110
I understand why people believe this, and there’s more than a nugget of truth in it. But I disagree that this is the main driver. Lord help me, I’m going to defend Trump for a moment. Here is why I believe he has so much support:
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His primary message is [I]jobs.[/I] He’s a nationalist protectionist who wants to completely revamp US trade policy. He tells the same stories about Carrier, Nabisco and other plants closing and moving to Mexico over and over. If you’ve ever been to Monterey or the huge industrial regions in China (I have), the scale of this job drain is shocking. It must be all the more so to the blue-collar workers here who lost their jobs. Trump says he can bring those jobs back by cutting better deals. This is probably untrue, but it sounds plausible to his audience, and it’s the only real hope any candidate has offered them
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You can also say Immigration is his primary message, though I think it’s just his most incendiary. Those same workers who have lost manufacturing jobs blame immigrants for taking them. Not just illegal immigrants, all low-wage brown people. They believe that these immigrants have cost them jobs or, at minimum, driven down wages. They also believe the establishment serves primarily corporate interests, and therefore remains unwilling to do more than talk about reducing immigration. In this, they are probably right.
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You could distill much of Trumpism to, “WTF has the establishment ever done for you?” For his voters, the answer is truthfully “nothing.” GOP economic policies are about transferring wealth to the top 1%, preserving inherited wealth and serving corporate interests. Trump claims his tax plan is different. It does not appear this is true, but his voters believe it. Moreoever, they definitely believe that the typical establishment sorts (e.g., Rubio) will continue to do nothing to help them
There’s a strongman aspect, too, of course. These voters want someone powerful enough to shake things up in DC. But once you cut through all the bragging and insult-schtick, Trump’s core appeal is, “I’ll get your jobs back.” He’s the one guy in that party who figured out that, now more than ever, “It’s [still] the economy, stupid.”
CAVEAT: I’m not supporting any of the above as good or honest policies. This is an attempt at empathy, not advocacy.
Trump’s real appeal is that he’s whatever you want him to be. Is he an anti-war candidate? Sure, look at what he said about Iraq. Is he in favor of blowing the crap out of anyone anywhere because America? Sure, he’s said that too. Is he in favor of soaking the rich? Yes. Is he in favor of massive tax cuts for the rich? Yes. Does he hate the gays? Yes. Does he love the gays? Yes. Etc. etc. etc.
vyshka
6112
Did you read the vox article?
Good post, Oghier, and a corrective to the overblown “rise of fascism” interpretation of Trump.
Part of the problem today is “growth based” economics. Even the most socially liberal technocrat believes in the absolute value of growth, and when you look at the numbers, immigration is an easy and foolproof way to encourage economic growth overall. That growth uber alles is essential and absolute has all sorts of sociological and ecological implications that technocrats really don’t want to face up to, honestly.
So the Republican establishment is hoping for a brokered convention at this point, but how would that affect Trump supporters if he wins most of the primaries but doesn’t get the nomination? That seems like a disaster for the party too.
If the GOP goes for a brokered convention, I guarantee Trump will dramatically tear up the pledge he signed to not run as an independent since they wouldn’t be “living up to their end of the bargain.” He’s all about his ego.
The problem is that it will be mechanically nearly impossible for him to run as an independent by the time of the Convention in the third week of July. He’ll have to get his petitions out to get on ballots, and some of those will be already closed anyway. And then he’s also got states where he’ll be ineligible to run because of sore loser laws. (Most sore loser laws exempt Presidential candidates, but Michigan and Ohio are two important states that do not.)
The petition signatures thing is another biggie. Texas requires a candidate wanting to appear on the Presidential ballot to submit 80,000 signatures on a deadline in May. North Carolina requires them in early June.
He could challenge those laws in court, but good luck getting everything lined up in 50 states to get on a ballot and go forward with a candidacy in that time frame.
Well put, Enidigm. No mainstream politicians or economists seriously pursue sustainability; they just think they can keep things growing forever.
Whatever happens with Trump and the GOP, this is going to turn into a serious reckoning for the party. A brokered convention and Trump rebellion would just be the most dramatic version to watch play out.
Bad Lip Reading is the best, but it’s super-extra-the-best when it’s lampooning Cruz.
Oh, it’s absolutely not practical. I think a Trump run would be doomed at that point, but I think he’d do some serious damage to what little party credibility the GOP has left.
The question is whether or not the GOP thinks the fallout from a brokered convention would be worth the sacrifice.
I want to post articles on Trump’s appeal to authoritarians every day until November.
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