You can do this when someone fires a few shells at you. Maybe. You can’t do this when they fire thousands. What works for Israel trying to keep rockets from falling on Ashdod doesn’t mean squat for protecting Seoul. At least not right now. Maybe in a decade, but even then, it will always be much easier to field far more simple artillery units than anti-artillery units, as the tech is so much simpler for the former, not to mention the cost.
A new poll shows Trump trailing both Cruz and Rubio (!) in 2-person matchups within the GOP. Which suggests that a bit of the Trumpmentum has been successfully leeched away; he doesn’t look quite so inevitable to GOP voters as he did a month ago.
Whether that matters is a different question. He’s not actually facing a two-way race and there’s no sign of anyone dropping out.
Another piece of info from that poll: Trump faces a 20 point gender gap with GOP women. Surprised it isn’t higher.
CraigM
6524
Who would those theoretical women be for? Rubio maybe? I’d have to figure Trump and Cruz are the bottom of that particular list.
Yeah, the fact that none of the non-Trump candidates are willing to take one for the team is very telling.
And that’s a shame for Rubio. I still maintain that he never had any real intention to run for the Big Chair… he just wanted to get his name into the conversation and maybe be a VP pick. If the alternative to Trump had been anyone other than Cruz, Rubio probably would have bowed out after Super Tuesday, graciously endorsing whomever. But with Cruz so roundly despised and Kasich nowhere nearby, what choice did he have but to plod on?
With Trump’s numbers falling, it looks like a floor fight in the convention. That’s honestly really exciting.
Not at all. It’s a lot worse to lose because you’re unattractive than to lose because someone else was playing dirty tricks and lying to the people.
I don’t buy that Rubio line of thought. I think he knew (thought? ) that Bush had some serious flaws as a candidate that he could take advantage of, he just misjudged the gop electorate.
The narrative on my news feed seems to be that Rubio has big ideas and promise, but he’s short on execution.
The robot comparisons are funny because he seems like the type of centrist candidate you’d design on paper to drag the GOP back to relevancy, but there’s just not a lot of vitality there. I can’t completely blame the voters for this one.
Trump is a vulgar middle finger to the status quo, and hell Kasich has the sensible Midwesterner thing, but Rubio? What was his thing?
He had a resume. He was young, good looking, and better yet a minority.
But what was his message? What was the emotional hook?
I don’t think they ever got that far, and it’s why he eventually collapsed.
I think was the sum total. He was a GOP Obama… just without the talent or smarts.
Considering that he opted not to run again for the Senate, it seems like he was fairly all-in. I imagine Rubio figured at the minimum he’d be a prime candidate for a VP slot (Hispanic + Florida). Perhaps not for Bush, since they wouldn’t want to double up on Florida.
So, he’s looking for work following his upcoming flameout, though I’m sure he’ll land on his feet (unless he breaks a heel on his fashionable boots).
Well, it was immigration reform. But he had to walk that back, because the GOP base didn’t want to hear it.
And he (or Cruz) would be the first major party Hispanic candidate for President. But of course he can’t play that up in the primaries, because it’s actually a negative to the base. (Cruz makes up for it to the base by being extra crazy.)
In other words, the things that made him different and theoretically interesting in the general also made him a flop in the primaries.
The NY Times had an article about his failed initiative to overhaul Florida’s tax system: big idea and big promise, but he didn’t want to do the arm twisting and heavy lifting to convince the State Senate. It’s the same here: there’s no groundwork for immigration reform within the GOP.
Unworkable ideas are still gold when it comes to politics. They just have to be things that people think they want.
That’s fair.
And he (or Cruz) would be the first major party Hispanic candidate for President. But of course he can’t play that up in the primaries, because it’s actually a negative to the base. (Cruz makes up for it to the base by being extra crazy.)
I don’t think it was something he could have talked about in the general either. Better to let other people make a point out of it.
Critics made the same complaint about his campaigning. He doesn’t seem interested in doing the hard work necessary to get things done.
That’s weird to me. In my culture, blaming another person for your defeat would be dishonorable. Even if someone stole the election, the loss and the shame is still yours.
Oghier
6536
Rubio’s appeal was based on his ethnicity, looks, public speaking skills and the life story of his parents. He has no meaningful accomplishments, other than being elected. He’s Obama-Lite, a hispanic version with less talent. For an electorate that hates the establishment, Obama and hispanics, he was never well positioned to win.
In a brokered convention, he could fit the VP slot of a Kasich-Rubio ticket. That is a nicely balanced ticket in many senses. However, neither man appeals to the “burn it all down” wing of the republican party. I predict Rubio will be a lobbyist in 2017, and he may write another book between now and 2020.
The “Lil’ Marco” moniker may stick, though. Effing Trump is really talented at being an asshole. I bet he was hell in middle school.
Granath
6537
There is a reason why Marco is not running well in his home state that has not received much national press. Rubio has missed more Senate votes and sessions than anyone. He has missed 41% of the votes the last few months. Presidential candidates typically miss more than that but only once they are fully running for President and have the nomination secured. It is not the first time either. He missed many votes back when he was in the state legislature.
So there is quite a bit of “we are paying him to do a job and he is not doing it” going on in FL and there has been since last fall. Instead of addressing it, Rubio decided to try to blame the media for this. It did not play well, especially since his percentage missed has risen steadily since then. It is just yet another example of how Rubio has a hard time dealing with unanticipated questions and issues and gives credence to the view that he is a lightweight.
Miramon
6538
I’m guessing you’re not a politician or a bureaucrat. Nor a corporate manager or executive. In all those realms it’s all about blame and avoiding any notion that you might be guilty or responsible for your own failure.
i.e., the “Thanks, Obama!” Doctrine.
So there are two polling outfits that have consistently outperformed everyone else when polling individual states, at least going back to 2008 or so, and that’s PPP and Survey USA (or SUSA if you like.)
PPP is perceived to have a bit of the leftward slant. For one thing, DailyKos (which is somewhere off to the left of Che Guevara sometimes) contracted with them to poll the 2008 primaries. However, in 2012, having a slight leftward tilt was actually helpful, since everyone undersampled the Hispanic vote, which went pretty heavily for President Obama.
SUSA is just cranky and wonky and accurate as hell, most of the time, at least in statewide contests. So when either does a poll, it’s worth a post.
Their latest in delegate-rich NC, a 3/15 state, proportional award:
Trump 41% (+5 since mid-Feb)
Cruz 27% (+9)
Rubio 14% (-4)
Kasich 11% (+4)
