Stu Rotherberg says Dem takeover of the Senate likely with Cruz or Trump as nominee.
Oghier
6543
SUSA released a poll in FL today. Trump is up by 20. That matches the last PPP poll there, which was Feb 24-25th.
The NY Times has an article about how Hispanic-Americans are registering to vote in droves to stop Trump in the general. Quite a many of them had never voted before.
This is like the GOP nightmare come true. The irony is that Hispanics would be a natural GOP constituency. Culturally conservative, religious, with strong family values. The problem is that the the solid 1/3 of the party that is nativist would destroy the party before accepting them.
That is beautiful, beautiful irony
Oh wow!
I saw that poll earlier today and blew it off because it was presented as belonging to the local news channel there, and not SUSA. Thanks for sharing it and thumping me on the head that it’s a SUSA poll.
I love the methodology crosstabs. Here’s why SUSA rocks.
This Florida Decides Exclusive Statewide Poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from March 4-6. Pollsters surveyed 2,450 likely voters via home phones and smart devices.
2,450 people! Holy crap!
By contrast, those national polls from WSJ and ABC and the WashPo that came out today? 400 people or fewer, nationally.
By the way, is there any evidence for this aside from “Hey, Obama rocks, guys!”? Rubio seems intelligent and he must have some talent if he started from nothing and had such a fast rise – in most fields we think of young people like that possessing raw talent that needs to be harnessed. The narrative seems to be a lack of follow-through or biting off more than he could chew at the time.
I was thinking that it’s kind of a shame he isn’t winning the primary. Polls show him ahead of Clinton head-to-head, and I wonder if a weak President is more healthy for the republic in general – so long as they’re not weak in such a way that they feel compelled to get into a war, I guess. Clinton with a Republican Congress would be fine too, but she’s more of a savvy ball-breaker that might be able to ram through more trash with the usual unintended consequences. Eh, not a big deal either way.
Oghier
6548
Candidate Qualities:
- Young and good looking
- Non-caucasian
- Grew up in a middle class or poor family
- Uplifting public speaker; conveys optimism
- Has personal values attractive to the base
- Seems smart
- First term senator
- No legislative accomplishments of significance
- No executive or managerial experience
- Primary attribute is electibility
- Nothing to indicate they would be good at governing, should they win
I don’t know if you count that as ‘evidence,’ but there are some striking similarities. Both parties succumb to the idea that winning the election is more important than running the country.
Oh, sorry for the confusion. I meant is there any evidence for the nonchalant dismissal that he is less talented and less intelligent? Aside from being a Republican instead of a revered Democrat.
And winning, obviously. I might actually accept that as an answer! Though the head-to-head polling is pretty funny – they might both be able to beat Hillary, but only one of them is going to get a chance.
In what world is Rubio non-caucasian?
His academic credentials are less impressive.
Obama: Occidental College/Columbia University, Harvard Law (magna cum laude), professor at University of Chicago Law School (12 years)
Rubio: University of Florida, University of Miami School of Law (cum laude)
Oghier
6552
Well, change to “minority ethnicity” if you like. I suspect you knew what I meant.
Without getting into a debate about intelligence, schooling, and the university system, I’d say that’s fair enough to make the point. Good call.
Oghier
6554
Obama was also the President of the Harvard Law Review. That is probably the single most prestigious position in any American law school.
The point is he’s white. Not as pale clammy white as Cruz, but white enough to pass as European. And both of them are infinitely more acceptable to white racist voters than Obama.
Well socially, but they tend to be much more liberal when it comes to state spending.
I wonder if they had an easier time reaching people. Florida skews much older, and older people are more likely to have landlines.
I looked this up on Google.
TOP DEMOCRATIC WHITE-VOTE GETTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
- Carter (1976) - 48%
- Clinton (1996) - 44
- Obama (2008) - 43
- Gore - 42
- Kerry - 41
- Dukakis - 40
- Clinton(1992) – 39
- Obama (2012) – 39
- Carter (1980) – 36
- Mondale – 34
Seems like Obama did fine.
I try to be politic for my own sake. You have to make some concessions to modernity. But there are times at work where I just can’t keep it in.
There’s nothing worse than cowardice.
Well, maybe not nothing, but it is pretty bad, I must agree. Anyway I was trying to say that from a politician’s perspective it’s always better to have someone to blame because they are eager and avid to be able to blame anyone but themselves for failure, one and all, in every party. But it’s harder for Rubio to blame others if he just ups and quits in Florida of all places than if he sticks it out and loses during a gigantic media blitz. In that case he can point a quivering finger and say that the rich man Trump bought the election.
I’m sorry, no you’re right.
I can get a little self righteous at times.
Anyway I was trying to say that from a politician’s perspective it’s always better to have someone to blame because they are eager and avid to be able to blame anyone but themselves for failure, one and all, in every party. But it’s harder for Rubio to blame others if he just ups and quits in Florida of all places than if he sticks it out and loses during a gigantic media blitz. In that case he can point a quivering finger and say that the rich man Trump bought the election.
Okay, I see your logic now. That’s probably fair.
I don’t think anyone’s going to trust him for a while though. He may be looking at ten years in the political wilderness.
Oghier
6561
There are some famous ranters who have not yet weighed in on Trump. Where is Jon Stewart? Heck, where is Flowers? But at least Keith Olbermann has finally cut loose:
He evidently lives in a Trump building, and we know he’s funny when all wound up ;)
