6582

There’s a news story I’m seeing everywhere that 33% of Bernie supporters say they’d never vote for Hillary. I could have sworn it was actually quite a bit higher on the Republican side for Trump, but I can’t find the story cause there are so many articles about the elections generally that searches for it pull up. Does anyone know where those stats were?

6583

Ahh… ok, so it’s still his family. Just not him.

6584

That might be a version of this poll - 77% of Democrats would vote for either candidate.

As the poll shows that’s basically the same for both candidates. Within the Democratic party, 76% percent of Clinton supporters would vote for Sanders, and 77% of Sanders supporters would vote for Clinton.

But if you spin that as “23% of Sanders supporters would not vote for Clinton” … well that cuts both ways. 24% of Clinton supporters say they won’t vote for Sanders.

And this is what people say, which is often different than what they do. All kinds of Hillary supporters in 2008 swore up and down it was her or no one … and then 89% of Democrats proceeded to vote for Obama in the fall. Most of the angry ones got over it.

6585

Yep, PUMAs were so sure they were going to deny Obama the White House they went into the typical “It’s rigged” denial almost immediately.

People get pissed when the candidate they worked for or donated to loses.

Then they get over it.

6586

My biggest personal issue with free trade are the IP restrictions forced into it. My biggest macroeconomic issue is that capital flows freely across borders while labor cannot.

6587

So much this. 1a and 1b on my lists. It’s why I dislike the secret TPP deals, shoehorning in our completely borked IP laws around the globe.

6588

Good lord, Tin… that Trump spin is amazing and scary. He may actually be following the Goebbels “if you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it” philosophy. (he may have never said it, but it’s attributed to him)

Politicians lie. But damn, he’s saying “I know it’s easy to prove I’m lying. But I don’t care. And when confronted with that lie, I’ll claim your counter is a lie and you are a loser” and is continuously getting away with it.

6589

This has been going on for months now.
The media doesn’t even bother fact checking him any more. It’s simply accepted that he’s going to lie constantly, and it simply will not matter to the voters.

6590

My father told me the he knows Trump lies about a lot of stuff. “He’s a showman. He does what he needs to draw crowds, keep things interesting, and get elected. Once he’s in, the real businessman will come out.”

WTF? As if he’s been playing a part for decades and will suddenly turn serious and insightful once he’s in office?

6591

‘The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade’ is an interesting paper published in January on the actual changes to the US manufacturing labour market following China’s entrance to the WTO in 2000.

I’m not sure if it’s available without academic access, but it might be.

The results are surprising.

6592

What journal is it from? (someone who has academic journal access for at least 8 more weeks)

6593

It’s on NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906

This may or may not be the same version: https://gps.ucsd.edu/_files/faculty/hanson/hanson_research_china-trade.pdf

6594

I would agree with your father.

I think he’ll always play the part of a buffoon, to a point, but he’ll moderate his act as the summer progresses. As far as his policies go, I think he’ll walk back on some of it, and in other cases simply change the way he talks about them.

6595

It hits hard when you find out a close relative is a Trump supporter. It really makes me worry that if he can somehow get the support of this normal and (usually) reasonable person he might actually win. Every debate, every single debate, I feel like it’s so obvious there’s nothing there behind what he’s saying.

6596

Thanks! I’ll give a look when I get home to see if that is included.

6597

According to a recent WaPo survey, 74% of Democrats would be satisfied with Clinton as nominee, and 72% would be satisfied with Sanders. Only 51% of Republicans would be satisfied with Trump.

6598

Is it surprising or expected that, in Michigan, both Sanders and Clinton each got ~110,000 and ~90,000 more votes than Trump did?

6599

Once he’s in office he’ll drive the country into bankruptcy. Business as usual.

6600

Or lets look at fracking, which also happens to be another example of why I hope Bernie gets the nomination and why I will only vote for Clinton in the general to prevent a Republican getting in.

Sanders hit Clinton during the Flint debate for prevaricating with regard to fracking. She’s not anti-fracking, she’s just anti-bad-fracking. Why not just come out against fracking? Well that would be awkward:

On Wednesday, Clinton will appear at a $575-a-head fundraising lunch at a Ritz-Carlton Hotel on the Northern California coast hosted by Alisa Wood, a partner at the international private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR).

In 2009, KKR began heavily investing in fracking, purchasing large shares of three North American oil and gas companies, and selling two of them for billions in profits. The third was hit hard by plummeting gas prices, and declared bankruptcy last year. But KKR was not deterred, and still owns a large portfolio of small fossil fuel companies, at least two of which — Cinco Industries and Comstock Resources — use fracking.

So sure, Clinton is against fracking if that’s what you want to hear. But if what you want to hear is that Clinton is for fracking, well, read between the lines because that anti-fracking stuff is just what you have to say to get elected. Why don’t we let the industry recommend a set of regulations that they would feel comfortable with? Win-win!

6601

I’m in the 26% and one thing I can tell you for certain is that if she wins the nomination, I will be voting for her. I will hold my nose and vote for her because the alternative is too horrific to contemplate and I will not be a party to that.

But my fear is that the hold-your-nose and vote candidate generally loses. The only thing that will save Clinton will be a worse candidate on the Republican side like Trump or Cruz.