1942

The problem with predicting who’s going to go to the primaries and who will bow out is super PACs. It used to be that if you had no real shot at funding that you’d drop out of the race. These days, as long as you have a patron billionaire, you can ride all the way to the first primaries and not care that you’re polling at 0 or 1%.

Trump is self funding, so he doesn’t give a crap, and as long as he stays above, say, 15%, he’s going to Iowa and New Hampshire in February for sure. Then there’s Super Tuesday, March 1st, with 13 primaries, so I’d say anyone without 15% at that point has to drop out. But it’s a long way to March 1st.

I’m an optimist, so I feel like people will tire of Trump and his shenanigans before then. Enough of his supporters will bail for Carson or Fiorina, and hopefully after Super Tuesday he’ll drop out and announce his candidacy for Mayor of New York City. A job for which he is actually qualified (relatively).

1943

Walker is out.

1944

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/21/scott-walker-said-to-be-quitting-presidential-race/

“The short answer is money,” said a supporter of Mr. Walker’s who was briefed on the decision. “He’s made a decision not to limp into Iowa.”

See ya!

1945

He’s Pawlenty with a better haircut.

Wow. This is a pretty big fish deciding he’s done.

Definitely an official notch on Trump’s belt.

1946

Glad to see him go

1947

Yep, Trump has actually accomplished something good for America. Walker would have been an awful president. If he can drive out Cruz before ultimately flaming out himself, the Donald will have done us a couple of good turns ;)

1948

No doubt. This is one thing we can thank Donald Trump for. Maybe this will herald the end of his political career (too much to hope for, I know).

1949

@Taniel 8m8 minutes ago
Many confused Walker moments in just a few months: Canadian wall, Stephen Moore mix-up on immigration, birthright citizenship, boy scouts…

1950

It’s almost as if he were a College drop out… oh wait…

1951

Texted a friend (who is in a union): “Walker just dropped out.”

Friend texted back: “So pretty much like college for him?”

1952

Hmmm.

One last thought: Walker’s timing is good. Word is he just avoided getting tied to a very bad story that could well have been coming.

1953

Sounds like he lost his (a?) sugar daddy:

A top donor backing Scott Walker said Monday that he gave money to four of Walker’s Republican rivals after last week’s debate, the latest sign of trouble for the Wisconsin governor’s struggling effort to stay in the mix for his party’s nomination for president.

Minnesota media mogul Stanley S. Hubbard told The Washington Post he has donated money to the campaigns of former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Asked how much he contributed, Hubbard would only say that he gave “generously.”

1954

So, Walker out, where do things stand on the R side?

Trump - while he outlasted/outperformed what most (including me) might have expected 4-6 weeks ago, he DOES seem to be fading now. Looked bad in the 2nd debate, IMO. May have impact beyond Iowa and NH, but not gonna win.

Fiorina - The latest boomlet candidate. Looked pretty good in the 2nd debate (though, IMO, not a blowout win for her as some said). I think the HP record and perhaps Lucent before that will hurt as she gets more media attention. I think she’s still a fairly long shot overall, though she is on the radar.

Carson - Nice guy persona, but should have been clearer against Trump on the vaccine issue in the debate, and overall not a good 2nd debate for him. On the downswing I think, though he may have a somewhat durable appeal to evangelicals that at least keeps him in the race for a while, even if he’s pretty unlikely to be the nominee.

Bush - IIUC, has $$$ and endorsements/supporters sufficient to sustain him even though some difficulties (a junior-grade, Republican version of Clinton in that respect). Probably still the overall favorite, but hardly invincible.

Rubio - Another flavor of the moment, and some good things going for him. I didn’t love some of what he said at the 2nd debate (climate change stuff comes to mind, but I think there were other things too). Probably has a bit of time to mature under the spotlight while not quite getting the full bashing that a “front runner” might.

Kasich - Meh. OK, but I dunno - seems a little uninspiring to me.

Christie - I’ve been a bit more bull-ish on Christie the first two debates than most of the commentariat seems to have been. I think he’s still got a (long) shot.

Cruz - I liked some of what he had to say - the Texas drawl and somewhat weird visual vibe he gives off (to me anyways) probably won’t help him. But I think he’s got a shot, if he gets a great debate performance or two in.

Paul - I like a fair amount of what he has to say, PERSONALLY, but I don’t think his issues, nor his persona are the stuff of which winning Republican nominees are made of.

Huckabee - Looks kinda old and tired. I think Carson probably beats him out for appeal to evangelicals. I don’t expect much success for him beyond Iowa, if even that far…

B-Team (Kids’ table debate or worse) - I’m not holding my breath for anyone from this group to graduate to serious contender.

So, in summary, I guess Bush and Rubio are strongest (long term), Fiorina, Kasich, Cruz, and Christie are plausible. It’s hard to be TOO dismissive of the guys with big poll #s (Trump and Carson), but I don’t think either are very likely to be the ultimate nominee.

1955

Considering the Muslim comments I’d bet that Carson is the next one to drop out.

1956

Probably because he actually talks about issues and not dog-whistle politics. It doesn’t sell well.

1957

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyy, I hate that guy.

1958

The problem is that almost everyone else is a joke or troll candidate too and the few who aren’t, aren’t getting any support.

1959

And the comments regarding sending illegal immigrants off to do agriculture slave labor probably won’t win him the Latino vote.

I never thought I’d see the day an African American would suggest something like this. Complete scum bag.

1960

The interesting thing about Walker’s exit is that it leaves a vacuum in Iowa. Other candidates had been shying away from a ground game in Iowa on the assumption that neighbor Walker was likely to win it; now it could very well go to the candidate most willing to beat the pavements (or cornfields) between now and caucus day.

I would expect some more exits between now and the next debate as the money men narrow their bets to a smaller list.

1961

Seeing a lot of ads attacking Trump up here in Iowa these days. Both use audio clips of Trump quotes: One attacks his faux conservatism, has a clip of him saying he’s really closer to being a Democrat than anything. The other plays a clip of him saying he approved of the Supreme Court’s eminent domain ruling, shows clips of homes/farms being torn down for shopping malls, then shows Trump in his private jet, voice over saying of course he approved of a SC ruling taking people’s private property away so rich guys like him can make millions more: Trump - The Worst Kind of Politician.