Sarah Palin

rei · 2008-09-05T09:29:33.000Z

because approval rating is a sure sign of policy competence.

Fooey · 2008-09-05T09:30:03.000Z

Oh, and thanks to Palin no doubt (and the NFL lead in was nice), McCain had more viewers than Obama:

http://www.tvweek.com/news/2008/09/mccain_tv_ratings_beat_obama_i.php

Jaysun · 2008-09-05T09:31:26.000Z

Fact Checking Palin

cbsnews.com

Factchecking Palin

By Hilzoy

Telefrog · 2008-09-05T09:34:49.000Z

Jaysun:

Fact Checking Palin

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/politics/animal/main4414049.shtml

Wow. That’s awesome.

[INDENT]Palin: “To the families of special-needs children all across this country, I have a message: For years, you sought to make America a more welcoming place for your sons and daughters. I pledge to you that if we are elected, you will have a friend and advocate in the White House.”[/INDENT]

Sarah Palin might have changed her mind on this one recently. However, a comment here notes that Palin actually slashed funding for schools for special needs kids by 62%. Budgets: FY 2007 (pre-Palin), 2008, 2009 (all pdfs).

Fooey · 2008-09-05T09:51:23.000Z

RepoMan:

So you’re saying they raised $2 million? Or… well… what the fuck are you saying, exactly?

Just Googled for “RNC fundraising after Palin speech”. First page hits:

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : RNC Picks Up $1 Million After Palin Speech

FOXNews.com - Obama raises $10 million after Palin speech …

Fox News and the WSJ (not exactly the most Dem-friendly sources) say the $10M for Obama / $1M for RNC numbers are accurate.

Care to shut up now?

Uhm, no.

“John McCain’s campaign expects to leave the Republican National Convention with $200 million in the bank and be able to match the Democrats’ spending in the next two months, an aide said.
…
In the last two days, the Republican National Committee has taken in $17 million, a campaign aide said. McCain reported raising $10 million just after the Aug. 29 announcement of Palin as his vice-presidential choice; the campaign took in more than $47 million in August, its biggest fundraising month.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPN78zX1eg10&refer=us

Fooey · 2008-09-05T09:56:46.000Z

rei:

because approval rating is a sure sign of policy competence.

Well, as you may have noticed, we don’t have a politburo here that appoints the candidate that one party decides has the most policy competence as leader. The people vote, and they tend to vote for people they approve of.

Fooey · 2008-09-05T10:01:04.000Z

The tiny Obama bounce is over even before the impact of the Palin and McCain speeches is in the numbers much:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama’s bounce. Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain’s speech last night. Roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before Palin’s speech on Wednesday night.”

Andrew_Mayer · 2008-09-05T10:04:23.000Z

That is actually pretty bad news for McCain. If he can’t get over 50% coming out of the convention then he’s in serious trouble.

We’ll see what happens over the next few days, but everything I’m reading says that the GOP strategists are worried that they’ve traded consolidation of the base for a chunk of the independents.

salwon · 2008-09-05T10:04:48.000Z

Fooey:

Uhm, no.

“John McCain’s campaign expects to leave the Republican National Convention with $200 million in the bank and be able to match the Democrats’ spending in the next two months, an aide said.
…
In the last two days, the Republican National Committee has taken in $17 million, a campaign aide said. McCain reported raising $10 million just after the Aug. 29 announcement of Palin as his vice-presidential choice; the campaign took in more than $47 million in August, its biggest fundraising month.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPN78zX1eg10&refer=us

TimJames · 2008-09-05T10:05:08.000Z

Sarah Palin might have changed her mind on this one recently. However, a comment here notes that Palin actually slashed funding for schools for special needs kids by 62%. Budgets: FY 2007 (pre-Palin), 2008, 2009 (all pdfs).
She’s channeling the rest of the candidates: “we’ll help you throw those bums out!” Except, well, you were one of them.

Hawkeye_Fierce · 2008-09-05T10:08:55.000Z

Oh no! A single poll shows…our guy still in front. Well, then.

Maybe we should panic and throw out Biden for, I dunno, Barney Frank or something.

Fooey · 2008-09-05T10:10:28.000Z

They have started a dump Biden market over at Intrade.

rei · 2008-09-05T10:10:36.000Z

Wonder Twins Power Activate! Shape of a one-man redneck candidate defense brigade!

NoWayJose · 2008-09-05T10:21:07.000Z

rei:

because approval rating is a sure sign of policy competence.

Stay on message, stay on message. They’re trying to confuse you!

Bahimiron · 2008-09-05T10:28:35.000Z

Factchecking:

And I wasn’t aware that writing memoirs was something to be ashamed of. Obama has, in fact, written only one. McCain (with Mark Salter) has written at least two.

Nice.

Jason_McCullough · 2008-09-05T10:32:20.000Z

Fooey:

Sarah Palin has the highest approval rating of any of the four top candidates:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

Right, because no one has ever heard of her.

magnet · 2008-09-05T10:34:33.000Z

Fooey:

Sarah Palin has the highest approval rating of any of the four top candidates:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

And yet the same poll shows Obama still leading McCain. You’d almost think the Veep doesn’t matter much to voters!

Papageno · 2008-09-05T10:36:44.000Z

Fooey:

The tiny Obama bounce is over even before the impact of the Palin and McCain speeches is in the numbers much:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama’s bounce. Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain’s speech last night. Roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before Palin’s speech on Wednesday night.”

And yet, strangely enough, over on www.electoral-vote.com they’re quoting new polling in North Dakota and Indiana of all places that show McCain vs. Obama preferences statistically tied. Both are states that shouldn’t even be close because Bush won them by 20+ points in 2004.

National preference polls are nice to have and all, but it’s the state by state results that matter in the end.

Fooey · 2008-09-05T10:38:19.000Z

As the write up of the poll notes, two-thirds of the responses in the latest daily tracking were collected before her speech and almost all of them before McCain’s. And the race is statistically tied. My bet is that is basically stays that way all the way until election day, with neither candidate ever managing to break 50% on any sort of sustained basis.

PeterGinsberg · 2008-09-05T10:41:09.000Z

Fooey:

As the write up of the poll notes, two-thirds of the responses in the latest daily tracking were collected before her speech and almost all of them before McCain’s. And the race is statistically tied. My bet is that is basically stays that way all the way until election day, with neither candidate ever managing to break 50% on any sort of sustained basis.

Well, if it’s anything like previous elections, McCain/Palin should actually develop a lead in the next couple days (on average of around 6 points), then it’ll go back to being basically tied a week or two later.

Until election day? Who knows, too much could happen.