1961

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/02/open-discussion-convention-bounce.html

1962

If Obama with all his brains, rhetorical talents and looks were a white guy named Johnson with a pretty wife and two cute daughters, he’d be walking away with this, Palin or no Palin, considering he’s of the opposing party and the President’s approval rating is around 30% I hate to think that about my country, and no, I’m not accusing people who truly disagree with his politics of being racists, but a good number of these latter-day “undecideds” would be all over that shit.

1963

Ugh. The scientist in me says you don’t make a change in your model based on popularity. If he believes, as the expert, that the model is inaccurate due to unusual variations in the data, as he explains, adjust to what you think is more accurate - that’s how models work, you refine them based on learnings. If he believes the model is still most accurate with the bounce adjustment, keep it in.

You don’t put your model up to modification by popularity, as THAT data is completely emotive and random.

1964

I strongly agree with Jeff.

It’s not unreasonable to refine a model as you go (though you should keep model users - i.e. the readers, informed). But having a public poll on a relatively significant facet of the model and using that to revise the model - bleah…

1965

Palin’s lack of immediate effect does not bode well for her long-term effect. What’s so hard to understand? The bump is from the convention overall, not her. So far she has given exactly one speech, albeit several times. That’s not changing the game. It could be argued that she’s had all the upside effect she’s going to have. And that effect was minimal.

1966

I tend to agree. One thing I recently read, that Democrats need to remember, is that Democrats have broken the 50 percent barrier in presidential elections only twice since 1944. Clinton won in 1992 with only 43%, and only 49% in 1996. Jimmy Carter was one of those two who broke 50%, and he only got 50.08% (LBJ got a whopping 61% in '64.) As charismatic as JFK was, he only beat Nixon by 0.17% and about 13,000 total votes in the popular vote count.

So even in a situation in which you would expect an “easy” win, the safe bet is to expect a dogfight down to the wire, historically.

1967

Matthew, do you think the polls and impact would have been the same had McCain picked Romney or one of the other couple of “safe” Republicans on the list?

1968

I think people are really underestimating her effect. I always make it a point to skim through blogs of all political spectrums, and I’ve never seen the conservative blogs so fired up in love.

And there’s this today from ambinder:

The huge crowds Gov. Sarah Palin attracts are one thing, but enthusiasm about the Alaska governor has produced an outpouring of volunteers for the GOP’s get-out-the-vote program.

According to a Republican official, countywide, seven to ten times as many new volunteers are signing to help as compared to the same days a month ago.

The day McCain announced the pick, and the Wednesday and Thursday of the convention, the numbers were through the roof, dwarfing the number of new volunteer sign-ups during that same period in 2004.

That’s more people that GOP field planners assumed they’d have, so in some areas, they’re scrambling to figure out what to do with them all.

1969

Whatever the polls are saying, you also have to take into account the turnout effect of Palin. I think Obama’s prospective turnout advantage has been fully negated. Socially conservative churches have proven time and again to be amazing at getting out the vote when they’re motivated. I’m pretty confident the Republicans carry Ohio now – which logically they should be getting creamed in – in a repeat of 2004 when they won the turnout battle decisively.

1970

Don’t be so sure about Ohio. It’s a battleground state, to be sure, but it’s absurd to call it for either candidate yet.

And you are severely underestimating the turnout advantage. A lot of love is being thrown at Palin, but I see no evidence that the majority of it is from people who wouldn’t already have been voting McCain.

1971

True enough. Ohio polls fresh out today, all taken over the last few days:


                    Obama     McCain
Quinnipiac             49         44
Strategic Advantage    44         48
Insider Advantage      47         48

Pretty much all over the map.

1972

Heh - a range from +5 Obama to +4 McCain.

Take polls with a grain of salt.

1973

Man, Palin really does come across as pretty clueless. When asked to say what she thinks of the Bush doctrine, she basically replies “I don’t know what that is, Charlie, so I’m just going to say ‘terrorist’ a dozen times and hope no one notices.”

1974

Link to actual video. I also noticed at the end when pushed she agreed with Obama who said that he would be willing to go into Pakistan without Pakistani approval. McCain strongly disagreed with Obama on this and insisted this was an example of Obama’s poor judgment.

We’ll have to see how this thing plays out in Middle America. I think this snippet does highlight the fact that Palin doesn’t know much about foreign policy, but we’ll have to see if Middle America sees that in her and if it cares about that. Palin may be very bright, but covering all of important worldwide current affairs and policy in two weeks is a pretty tough proposition.

1975

Gibson had decent questions, he didn’t press her like some interviewers might have, but it was no puff piece.

On the Bush doctrine – It was a bit scary that it wasn’t like she couldn’t remember specific details about, but she seemed unaware of the existence of it. Powell doctrine, 1 percent doctrine, I guess it was mostly a 2004 election thing when these terms were popular among the pundits, at least, I don’t remember much discussion about doctrines this cycle.

1976

According to the New York Times, President Bush Jr has secretly allowed raids into Pakistan.

President Bush secretly approved orders in July that for the first time allow American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without the prior approval of the Pakistani government, according to senior American officials.

The classified orders signal a watershed for the Bush administration after nearly seven years of trying to work with Pakistan to combat the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and after months of high-level stalemate about how to challenge the militants’ increasingly secure base in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

American officials say that they will notify Pakistan when they conduct limited ground attacks like the Special Operations raid last Wednesday in a Pakistani village near the Afghanistan border, but that they will not ask for its permission.

1977

Yep, I noticed that. I was kind of wondering if this is Bush’s attempt to create an October Surprise and bag Bin Laden right before the election. In spite of McCain’s protestations that he’s not Bush, I strongly suspect Bush bagging Bin Laden would put McCain on top for sure and probably give a huge rise to the Republicans across the board.

1978

I don’t think Bush supports McCain enough to create an October Surprise for him.

1979

Bush will do what Cheney, the Neocons and the RNC tell him to do. That was the whole point of backing him for President, after all. And the RNC establishment may not care much for McCain, but they’re crazy about Palin because she’s got that same faux-folksy appeal, and they want to set her up for '12.

EDIT: Forgot to add the Oil/gas/coal lobbies to the cabal. Bad liberal, no biscuit!

1980

Seven years later you think that the US will suddenly bag Osama bin Laden within a month, in mountainous terrain amongst Pakistani tribes that are sympathetic, if not supportive, of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban?

I’m more inclined to believe the tinfoil hat brigade’s theory that the neo-cons will let Sen. Obama win so he could try and fail to clean up the Bush Jr mess and the GOP take the presidency back in 2012. Then again, the tinfoil hat brigade believed that Sen. Clinton was guarenteed the presidency by the Illuminati (don’t get me started on my friends who believe in this crap).