SCOTUS under Trump

orald · 2018-10-05T14:44:56.609Z

I assumed cloture was a foregone conclusion, my reference was to the final vote re: Manchin. I could have been clearer.

And I anticipate Kav will be seated 51 - 49.

barstein · 2018-10-05T14:45:43.196Z

John McCormack (McCormackJohn)

Sasse: “I’m voting for confirmation because of the evidence and Judge Kavanaugh’s qualifications.” https://t.co/oFFR61geaZ

1:28 PM - 5 Oct 2018 230 82

scottagibson · 2018-10-05T14:45:47.394Z

Manchin is in the clear if Flake and Collins are Yes on confirmation. He can do whatever he likes.

triggercut · 2018-10-05T14:46:22.763Z

Yep. It’ll take a Collins or Flake NO vote on confirmation to put the onus on him.

triggercut · 2018-10-05T14:47:00.541Z

twitter.com

(((Harry Enten))) (ForecasterEnten)

I mean Manchin is going to vote with the majority in the final vote... So really this is about Collins... Right?

2:46 PM - 5 Oct 2018 29 5

triggercut · 2018-10-05T14:51:02.465Z

Something that would not surprise me: by 2020, Lisa Murkowski is caucusing with the Democrats.

(Not saying I expect that to happen…but given her electoral history in Alaska, and given the example of a senator like Manchin, a move in that direction wouldn’t put me on the fainting couch…)

barstein · 2018-10-05T14:55:18.252Z

So that’s cloture 51-49. 30+ hours before the final vote.

MrGrumpy · 2018-10-05T15:00:18.838Z

That’s that.

twitter.com

Glenn Kessler (GlennKesslerWP)

Manchin said his vote for cloture would be the same as his final vote. So with Murkowski a no and Manchin a yes, Collins could still vote no and then Pence would break a 50-50 tie and Kavanaugh slips through.

2:52 PM - 5 Oct 2018 150 140

Never mind.

twitter.com

Glenn Kessler (GlennKesslerWP)

@McCormackJohn Oops, I guess he pulled back from that: Manchin was asked if his cloture vote would correspond to his final confirmation vote. "You'll have to see, huh?"

2:59 PM - 5 Oct 2018 8

triggercut · 2018-10-05T15:02:47.809Z

twitter.com

Elaina Plott (elainaplott)

As to whether Manchin would switch his vote on the floor, a source close to him says, "He's never done that before, because he wouldn't want to have the John Kerry problem."

2:59 PM - 5 Oct 2018 87 58

Timex · 2018-10-05T15:04:06.185Z

Voting for cloture makes sense here, if someone wants to vote no at the end.

A final floor vote of no will essentially be a huge embarassment to McConnel, and the nomination will effectively end.

Refusing to vote for cloture will just drag stuff out, and the GOP will keep screaming about it.

I’d say it makes more sense to say, “Yeah, let’s vote.” then vote no like McCain did on the ACA.

Not that it’s what will happen, but it’d what I’d do if I was someone like Flake or Collins.

rowe33 · 2018-10-05T15:20:47.595Z

When will Kavanaugh be an official court member and start making crazy ass rulings in favor of the minority of the American people? Should make for a fun 30-40 years.

vyshka · 2018-10-05T15:21:38.518Z

Monday?

triggercut · 2018-10-05T15:21:55.674Z

Collins stated that she’ll announce her final vote later today, so that should make things either settled for Kavanaugh being confirmed…or put tons of pressure on Manchin.

Hansey · 2018-10-05T15:23:42.047Z

Meanwhile, the crowdfunding campaign against Collins’ ‘yes’ vote is at almost $1.9 million.

This apparently gives Sen. Collins zero cause for concern. (Imagine my surprise.)

CraigM · 2018-10-05T15:23:48.016Z

She’ll vote yes.

Republicans fear their donors, not their voters.

KevinC · 2018-10-05T15:26:46.098Z

With Trump working with Russia in 2016 and the GOP’s refusal to address election security in any way, that’s probably the correct assessment in terms of her job security.

ravenight · 2018-10-05T15:36:36.986Z

So what happens if Collins votes no and Manchin abstains? Kav fails, but does Manchin get any cover for that or is he better off just voting no?

rowe33 · 2018-10-05T15:39:19.406Z

I don’t understand why people keep picking Collins in the 1st round of the Senate fantasy draft. She’s more of a 4th or 5th round pick at best. Sure she looks good on paper, but is always disappointing when it comes to actual performance.

triggercut · 2018-10-05T15:56:22.378Z

twitter.com

Akela Lacy (akela_lacy)

MURKOWSKI now: “I believe that Brett Kavanaugh is a good man... this has truly been the most difficult...decision I’ve ever had to make...we’re also at a place where we need to be thinking about the...credibility of our institutions”

3:50 PM - 5 Oct 2018 100 42

Oghier · 2018-10-05T16:02:49.400Z

Mitch has to let Murkowski vote no. Alaska’s native people have come out strongly against Kavanaugh, due to his handling of native rights in a Hawaii case. She needs them as part of her coalition.