1813

If I had to guess, I’m thinking Republicans are going to pull BK’s nomination and then run on “Democrats dirty tricks ensured [our most awesome judge] Kavanaugh couldn’t get a fair hearing.” They’ve been looking for a way to motivate their base, and this will do it.

1814

And by extension, one theory on how Alan Dixon – and by extension, Anita Hill’s testimony – gave us Barack Obama:

1815

Aside from being the correct thing to do, part of the reason why Franken and other stained Dems had to go was for moments like this.

1816
1817

This, from Atrios, strikes me as right:

The thing about Kavanaugh is that it’s 100% obvious that thew knew he had some sort of questionable incident(s) involving women in his past. The “he’s a girls’ basketball coach” is such a conservative way of trying to “deal” with that problem, even though it’s actually the creepiest possible way to try to deal.

https://www.eschatonblog.com

Everything about the rollout of the Kavanaugh nomination suggests they knew there was something in his past. Beyond the girls’ basketball coach thing, there were all of the op-eds by women talking about how great he was to women, what a good mentor he was, what a great car-pool Dad, and so on. Then, at the first hint of a revelation, they executed the 65-woman letter.

1818

I wonder if the GOP has a secret vault of 65-woman letters, one for each Senator, Congressman, and judge affiliated with the party. Ready to go at a moment’s notice when each rape or sexual assault incident is finally discovered. Except for McConnell, of course, due to lack of support.

1819

They probably have a letter from the Presidents that Ted Cruz’s dad didn’t shoot.

1820

Two very different takes late last night for the morning news cycle, from two respected reporters.

Washington Post’s take: Trump will go to the mattresses on Kavanaugh and fight like hell for him. It’s Kavanaugh or nothing. Everything rides on it.

CNN’s Jim Acosta: Mitch McConnell holds all the cards, and he’s not a Kavanaugh fan. Kavanaugh and Ford testifying Monday is a wild card and could be devastating for Senate Republicans, and may never take place. Supporters of three other SCOTUS short-listers are already maneuvering for position.

1821

A lot of that could just be burnishing “I don’t hate women” credentials given how much Roe V Wade would be in the conversation.

1822

They didn’t have the votes, otherwise the date would never have been moved.

The red state Dems now have cover not to vote for BK - so that means it’s (at least) four GOP senators that need convincing now. They will vote the way McConnell wants them to vote - but since McConnell knows they can still get a very conservative judge w/o BK’s baggage, he’ll probably allow them to vote no. BK remains a very influential judge on the DC circuit and the Evangelicals get Amy Barrett.

(Brought to you by Hot Takes for $.01)

1823
1824

From that article…

Kavanaugh’s answers during testimony, like those of previous nominees, were evasive, and his follow-up written responses absurd. For two questions about Roe v. Wade , for example, Kavanaugh replied: “See my answer to Question 5a.” His answer to 5a? “Please see my response to Question 4.”

What the actual fuck?! Why is this guy even in the running?! He would have gotten a goddamn F on any response like that in school. These people Evil with a capital E.

1825

Seems to me Kavanaugh is a dead man walking. Republicans are not going to want a highly-publicized testimonial drama this close to the mid-terms. The calculus is simple: even if this woman is lying (and personally I doubt it), it doesn’t matter. She’s going to go on TV and tell a harrowing tale of a young man sexually assaulting her. And then that old white guy is going to go on TV and deny it, and he’s not super charismatic.

Why go to the mattresses for this guy? Throw him out and find a new nominee ASAP.

1826

I am in the “this hearing will never happen” camp. I assume they’re already preparing the next nominee, and my bet is Barrett. Kavanaugh will (be forced to) withdraw his name by end-of-day tomorrow.

1827

I’m a political pessimist. I’m going with the GOP grits their teeth and pushes him through. We get Anita Hill redux.

1828

It is mind-boggling that they would continue with this historically disliked candidate.

They had 2 other options which were described as much easier to confirm than Kavanaugh, Hardiman or Barrett.

I got to assume they are getting the second pick ready, so that when Kavanaugh steps down, they can rush through the next process in the next month.

1829

There is one obvious reason they are still pushing Kavanaugh so hard… he is the one who obviously believes in pretty much unfettered Presidential power.

1830

I think all that’s happening now is convincing Trump that he has to walk away from this guy. The longer they hold on the worse it gets.

1831

I believe the reason they will go ahead is because it appears to be official policy of the Party of Trump to never admit to error. (In much the same way that previously, Conservatism could never fail, only be failed.)

1832

I think this would have been true if it weren’t for the mid-terms and the very likely House wipeout and close call in the senate. McConnell knows that things are going to be different in November.