6235

On a larger scale note, my impression based on the building right wing anti-Mueller BS frenzy is that there is a substantial chance that Trump will fire Mueller in the near future. I have two thoughts on this:

On the one hand, that will be a major, serious and grave breach of the American system of law and justice, and a massive abuse of power. It will likely spark huge protests and a big media sensation. However, there is also a substantial chance that after much hullabaloo, the GOP controlled Congress will do… nothing. This whole crisis will be a huge deal and if it ends up with the cynical result, as a liberal, part of me will feel completely defeated.

And yet, on the other hand, the big picture issue is retaking control of Congress and eventually the Presidency, and with a consistent effort focused on getting voters out, I think the Dems have a pretty good shot at turning things around in 2018. In the long rung, this is the bigger deal.

So as we move forward into what is probably going to be a period of intense political crisis, although there is a substantial chance we will suffer a short term “defeat”, I feel the long term picture is good.

So be ready to shout from the mountaintops if/when Trump fires Mueller, but also don’t work yourselves up to a quitting frenzy if Trump gets away with it short term. In the long term, only a solid shift of actual political power is going to right this ship and I remain guardedly optimistic on that.

6236

I think a universal boycot of work to protest during all waking hours would be a good start. If over half the workforce chooses not to work, that’d sure send a message to the GOP donors, which of course, is who matters.

6237

Josh Marshall:

I think we’re seeing signs that the ground is being laid to fire Bob Mueller and end all investigations into President Trump and Russia. I’m not saying it will happen or that the effort will be successful. But the effort is clearly afoot. Here are the indications (sub req.) as I see them.

I don’t want to be hyperbolic. I not only believe generally but think we have seen evidence of the resilience of our system and core institutions over recent months. But we can see a number of developments, building over recent weeks and accelerating in recent days, aimed at ending the Russia investigations.
[…]
But it is the evening of December 15th. At some point, no matter how much you want to believe something, the evidence contradicting your belief can grow so great that your edifice of confidence crumbles. It can happen rapidly. Even in the Trumpian world of fictive realities, the nonsensical nature of Cobb’s assurances must be becoming clear. That dam of realization seems to have given way or is in the process of breaking. That’s perilous.

For clarity, I don’t think Mueller will be fired. But I believe the groundwork is being laid to do so. I believe there’s an effort afoot to try. It is also entirely possible Trump will fire Mueller, especially if he can get a clean bill of health from one of the House committees which he can brandish as a justification. That will trigger a grave crisis. Keep an eye on the escalating attacks on Mueller, the increasing drive to close down the congressional investigations.

6238

How could such a thing possibly be organized? Even among Democrats, nobody’s going to skip out on work unless they’re sure in advance that tons of others will do so too.

6239

Not entirely sure, but the women’s march happened, and I was there for it. Firing Mueller is a step that I personally feel would be the start of the end of our democracy, and I can’t allow the GOP to cross that line without doing whatever I can to save our country. Peacefully, but with the utmost enthusiasm.

6240

A general strike is just not in the political vocabulary of enough Americans to matter. If one were attempted, it would fail and be seen as a signal of weakness. Americans do understand mass demonstrations, though. The real solution won’t come until the 2018 mid-terms.

6241

New poll this morning from NBC.

Two critical things: this is the highest advantage for Democrats since 2008, and…

Look at the dates. 2008. 2006. We didn’t get to +14 and +10 respectively in those two cycles until the spring of that election year. We’re there now before Christmas of the same year the new Congress was seated and the President inaugurated.

6242

You can’t draw that conclusion from this chart, because it doesn’t have data for 2007 or 2005. It seems reasonable that the numbers would be comparable in the fourth quarter of those years to the numbers for the first quarter of the years following.

Otherwise, though, I agree that 3% to 11% in one year is a pretty big jump.

6243

So with some research, it is looking like there are some clear analogs to 2006. Here’s 2005/6: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

Scroll about halfway down the page to the NPR 12/15-18 poll of 2005 and then go before that.

So yes, the fourth quarter numbers from 2005 were definitely climbing as an aggregate. What’s also interesting is that the final RCP average was 11.5, but the final actual was 7.9.

Also of interest, since you got me thinking about the delta of past years, is that the 2004 final generic congressional ballot was +2.6 Republican. Does that imply that D +10-13 is about the high range possible? I dunno, but it’s interesting.

Of course, the main reason why 2006 might NOT be analogous is that it was the third congressional election of a single President’s time in office. It’ll be interesting to see how that affects things, because I can see causality going both ways: lingering base goodwill for President Bush and his party based on 4 years of above-water-to-highly-above-water approval ratings may have raised the floor for congressional midterms. Which is an advantage Trump/Ryan won’t have in 2018. The other side of the coin is that the kind of wave that happened in 2006/2008 needed more than two years to build up, so that may raise the floor for the Republicans in 2018.

If it is analogous, the ~ +30/-30 turnover we had in the 2006 midterms would give Democrats a 15-seat majority in 2018.

6244

Two interesting takes. Not sure I’m fully on board with either, but both are very plausible.

6245

A third take I had overnight was maybe these attacks on Mueller, like the text release and the e-mail stuff, are trial balloons and Trump’s team is testing whether they can tarnish Mueller enough to make his firing palatable. In that case, then this build up of anti-Mueller attacks may not lead to a firing.

6246

The Deputy AG, appointed by Trump, straight up said that there was zero reason to fire Mueller. He said exactly that in front of congress.

6247

I think Trump learned a lesson from Comey, and he knows he lacks the political cover to fire Mueller now. He’ll have to start a war first.

I am a natural pessimist, and I hope I’m wrong here again ;)

6248

Well, time to get busy tarnishing that guy too.

6249

So was I. That was on a weekend, though. People generally didn’t have to skip work to march, much less deliberately avoid work for an indeterminate time as a matter of protest.

6250

People on fox are literally using the words coup and treason to talk about Mueller. Its just like fake news. The people doing the most lying accuse everyone else of lying, and their base loves it.

6251

Agreed. Unfortunately, at that time we were just protesting someone so terrible being elected, and what we feared he would do. Now we’d be protesting his actual dismantling of our country. It’s about expectations vs reality, and if/when trump fires mueller, it’s reality time, at least for me.

6252

And everyone Trump sends in front of Congress… lies!

6253

Is that pic shopped? I refuse to believe Trump plays tri-level chess. I bet he doesn’t even know how to play chess.

6254

Yeah, someone replaced the taco bowl with a chessboard.