Reads like a spy handler sending the “break out” code word.
If this shit goes down, we have president Pence. There is no way that the GOP will impeach Trump and Pence to grant Nancy Pelosi the presidency. Ain’t gonna happen. Impeach Trump to grant Pence the presidency? Maybe. But never Pelosi.
Agree with that, though I’d go further and say no way they impeach Trump. There’s no incentive for them to do it.
I mean, if Trump is tied to huge amounts of corruption, you can expect that to continue to hurt his approval rating, and having Trump on the ticket will likely kill enthusiasm and turnout in the more moderate states in 2020, basically assuring Trump a loss in 2020.
All of the posturing around the “Blue Wave” is one thing, but losing the house hurt, and Trump hurt the Republicans in this election. All of the northern swing states he won swung back to the left. If you held the election again based on approval rating alone, he loses MI, WI, PA, and we will see how OH takes the GM plant closures, maybe Ohio too.
I think that if there is significant findings in this investigation, you could see a lot of moderate republicans decide that having Pence for 2 years before a new election where they can get their guy, uggh Ted Cruz? is the least bad outcome.
The only Incentive the GOP seems to have is staying in power, and if the pendulum shifts that Trump will stop them from having that power… they will cut him off.
Republicans have shown that they are willing to trade elected seats for lifetime judgeships. Should be no different for 2020.
Under nearly every circumstance I see the most likely outcome as them playing out the clock until 2020. They will challenge any indictment and that could take years to play out.
Here’s the problem: Point to 20 ‘moderate’ Republican Senators who you think would ever vote to impeach Trump. That’s what it would take to do it before the next election. I can’t find them.
It is more complicated than that though.
I know I am being optimistic. But the GOP does a pretty good job of working as one. And even if a large amount of Senators don’t have their jobs on the line in 2020, this could impact their majority. And you could see non-moderate Senators moving to Impeach if Trump threatens the GOP majority in the senate.
The Trump approval rating was basically the prognosticator of who would win the senate elections in 2018.
In 2020, the Senate GOP could lose, Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Thom Tills, and the to be vacant Arizona seat held by John Kyl. They have a 3 seat majority, and these states are trending blue.
The only other option I see is Trump getting primaried out in 2020, and the GOP holding on until then, which seems like the cowards move, which is probably what they will end up doing then.
It really isn’t. For Trump to be successfully impeached before the next election, 20 Republican Senators have to vote to convict. The usual suspects — for no empirically good reason — are indeed Collins, Gardner, Ernst, etc. Assume all the ones you name are ready to vote to convict. That’s 4. Assume Kyl’s seat, though there’s no good reason to do that, and you have 5. Who are the other 15 who have more to gain than lose by convicting?
I’m assuming that Trump will not be re-elected in 2020, which then renders impeachment moot.
I’m not sure they can primary Trump. It may be more likely that Trump supporters will primary anti-Trump Republicans. The people voting in a primary will be the hardcore, impossible to reason with, Fox News Republicans.
The list of GOP senators that would do that was tiny, and one of them died last year.
As long as their rabid base sticks with Shitgibbon, they’ll all fall in line for fear of being primaried. The GOP is a bunch of cowards.
If the GOP loses 5 senators to elections, they lose the majority, they already lost the house.
That means, no more Supreme court judges, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, and nothing from the Senate’s agenda getting done. The Democrats will be holding the entire legislative branch of government.
What I am saying is, good ol’ Cocaine Mitch might press some of his more conservative fellows to Impeach Trump if they can think it will save the Senate majority, and his place in power.
The Republicans desperately want to keep the Senate majority, and it really feels like they probably can do it too, if Trump doesn’t pull down the moderate candidates up in 2020. (and as 2018 has shown, the moderate candidates haven’t survived)
They do, but they also don’t want to be primaried. I very much doubt there are 20 senators who value a senate majority in the abstract more than their own seat.
I guess that is the argument Mitch will have to make.
I honestly think that there are at least 20 GOP senators who are not Trump true believers, and would absolutely step on Donny’s throat to protect their majority. It isn’t like they are going to lose an Election because they impeached Trump.
You are assuming that voting to impeach Trump is equivalent to losing their senate seat, and I don’t see the case. Even with that vote they still hold their 10+ point GOP seats.
It all comes down to the calculus of how much Trump helps them keep their seats and their majority. When he isn’t helping the GOP, they’ll dump him. The 2018 election certainly didn’t further the narrative of Trump helping the party.
But, I guess we will see what happens when it does. We could all be wrong, politics has been increasingly difficult to predict lately.
I don’t want them to impeach Trump. I want him to be voted out of office and then, when no longer President, be convicted of crimes and put in jail for the rest of his miserable puny life.
A GOP candidate will, but it will probably not be the one that voted to impeach Trump.
That is a good point.
But, with Trump out of the picture, will it matter anymore? Can the Trump true-believers outraise and win a primary without support from the GOP? Maybe? But probably not likely. I think the reason those people won was that they would be joining Trump in Washington. With him gone, does that sales pitch work the same “I want to continue Trump’s work?” Does that cult of personality still work with the personality out of power?
It’s not “I want to continue Trump’s work”. It’s “I want to kick out the Mexican-loving secret Muslim that got rid of Trump”.