Perhaps — maybe they just get primaried out by another Republican— but even assuming they know they’ll lose their majority, who are the 15 current Republican Senators (accepting your 5 proposed for the sake of argument) who have more to gain by voting to convict than they have to lose personally? I can’t think of a single one, and I can’t imagine any one of them volunteering to fall on their sword for the sake of a majority for the survivors.
I don’t think we’ll see Republican congress-critters “do something” in the dramatic way that a lot of us would like to see them “do something”. But with that said, one thing I can tell you is that the bloom is off the rose for the power of Trump as a political force.
There are going to be a lot of Republican folks quietly putting a finger up into the wind over the next year or so. They’d be fine with Trump winning in 2020, as they’d love to take a stab at Breyer and Ginsburg’s SCOTUS seats, as well as giving Thomas and maybe even Alito an off-ramp.
BUT…if Trump’s approval numbers keep hovering in the sub-45 range, and if the Democratic smoke signals heading into 2020 look as strong as those that presaged the 2018 midterms, I think you’ll see folks like Kasich, Sasse, Murkowski and Collins try to start positioning themselves as leaders of a “new” Republican party that tries to take itself back to Reaganism and GHWB-style foreign policy ideas.
Honestly, for a while I’ve thought that the long-term smart play, politically, would be a real rejection of Trump. Just just concern and bullshit, but actually harming Trump with action. Saying something like, “no, this is so terrible that it must be destroyed.”
I feel like the Republicans who do that are going to be the only ones left at the end of all this… And they won’t be called Republicans any more. But actually putting some sort of principles above party is something that Americans actually respect, i think. The partisan bases don’t, and that makes primaries a problem. But a big chunk of the country hates the partisan bases.
While I always hesitate to try to feel too positive about any of this stuff, let’s remember a couple of things about Trump. First, nobody is truly loyal to the man, especially since he has proven time and time again that he has zero loyalty to anyone else. Look how fast almost everyone close to him has turned on him with Mueller. The Republicans rallied around him only when it became clear they had to to keep their power. They’ll fall away from him as soon as that changes.How does that change? Well, Trump is popular because he acts tough and picks on people who can’t defend themselves. He’s the schoolyard bully. It doesn’t take a lot for that type of person to be exposed and then suddenly that toughness aura they project disappears. Trump has managed to keep his appearances up for a long time, but if the full truth comes out about his past, that may undo his image.
True. I think, like Enron, if Trump goes down, he’ll go down FAST. Like one day McConnell is talking about how much he supports Trump’s agenda and the next he’s vilifying him.
But I highly doubt that’s going to happen.
I don’t think Trump’s image or approval polling really matter. For each Republican Senator, they’ll look at the Republican base in their own state. If they’re in a solidly Republican state (which most of them are), they’ll be more afraid of a primary challenge than they will of any Democratic challenger. There are a few (as granted) who might face a different calculus, but a successful impeachment would require 20, and 20 Republicans vulnerable to a Democrat cannot be found. So he won’t be impeached. I do think he’ll get trounced for re-election, but maybe it’s my turn to be too optimistic.
Eh - maybe… but look at Cory Gardner in Colorado. This guys has been completely aligned with Trump and the GOP despite Colorado’s complete distaste for Trump.
Mike Coffman, a far more moderate GOP Congressman was just ousted by 10pts in a district the GOP has held for 40 years.
Gardner has doing nothing to try and moderate his tone in regards to Trump.
I wholeheartedly agree with this. Only way to truly put him down is a massive repudiation at the polls. Without that, we’ll rehash him for ever.
I feel like Trump is days away from confessing to everything via Tweet. It’s going to be like the end of The Jinx where Robert Durst confesses.
I particularly like that second Tweet. “I may have committed some light treason.”
I mean I glanced at it whilst toileting one fine morning and that was it. Barely worth mentioning which is why I heatedly denied all contacts to Russia when asked. Nobody thought we could win in Michigan, nobody. It was a beautiful thing. I won more states than any President in history.
Why not both? As far as I know, there’s no bar to a criminal indictment of a successfully impeached president.
Since Trump was a Russian stooge this entire time, can we then say all his actions should or can be nullified. Like all of those judge appointments? They’re tainted.
That’s my scenario for a Trump impeachment also. Mueller comes up with crimes at least as bad as Nixon.
Republican start to panic and Mitch gives the green light for impeachment. It is true that impeaching Trump very well may lead to be primaried. Although that didn’t happen after Nixon’s impeachment. But outside deep Red states, I’d think they’d know that winning a primary but losing the general is no worse than losing the primary.
I also believe that very few Republican Senator, like or respect Trump. In contrast, I think may Democrats actually like Bill Clinton. In the case of Nixon very few liked, but a fair number feared him, and some respected him. Republicans fear Trump but that is about it.
So Don Jr.’s claims to the committee regarding the Moscow project remain uncorrected, along with a number of other statements that we now know to be false. For example, contrary to his claim that no other foreign nationals offered or provided assistance to the Trump presidential campaign (as the Russians had done), a group from the Middle East ― including Israeli, Saudi and United Arab Emirate nationals ― had offered social media manipulation services at another Trump Tower meeting he attended. Don Jr.’s claims that there was no follow-up to the June 2016 meeting with the Russians are also belied by later testimony and documentary evidence provided to the same Senate committee, which showed that the intermediary who set up the meeting, Rob Goldstone, made extensive efforts to set up a second meeting after Trump won and probably had direct contact with the president’s son in doing so.
This likely explains the multiple reports ― going back as far as August of this year and expressed more urgently in the wake of the midterm elections ― that Trump fears that special counsel Robert Mueller will seek to indict his son.
But the substance of Cohen’s new plea suggests Don Jr.’s exposure may extend well beyond the perjury charges that Trump advisers reportedly worry he could face for lying to Congress.
I mean, yes, sure, that’s part of it. Trump is dumb.
But that’s not the entire explanation.
Trump is also really, really, really cheap.
Trump: I have to tell you, Vladimir. I have something special for you. Something very special.
Putin: Really? What is it?
Trump: It’s a 2012 Kia Sorento. In beige. You’ll love it. Drives like new.
Putin: You cannot be serious!
Trump: I know, right? That’s just the kind of guy I am. It even has the sun roof. Also I got you some coupons for oil changes. I already used two, but there are four left.
It’s like Trump doesn’t realize that Putin can just own any building in Russia if he wants to.
Well, Putin’s not going to live there, but it’s still an asset, and a $50 million bribe is nothing to sneeze at, even if you’re Putin.
And Trump is dumb enough to have openly dangled that pardon.