Eh, I don’t think they are actually going to be running actuarial tables or anything… Players aren’t going to be running those companies, so they don’t need to be profitable. That is, you won’t have to pay more for insurance based on risk or anything.
I think that maybe a better way to think about it would be like buying clones in EvE. You’re paying a relatively small amount of money that guarantees you’ll be able to get your ship replaced at no cost to you for the duration of the contract. Losing your ship itself doesn’t have a major cost to you, although apparently if you keep losing it over a short period of time, there’ll be an increasing delay in getting it back (so you can’t just use your ship like a ram and smash into other folks).
But at the same time, the ships can still be stolen by other players… it doesn’t really hurt you, while giving the thief a gameplay option. He can be an outlaw without ruining your game.
The only problem for the victim is the inconvenience of having their current trip interrupted, and potentially losing upgrades or cargo on their ship.
Ultimately though, recall that “paying hundreds of dollars for a ship” isn’t the main way that folks will be getting ships. It’s more like a short cut. Kind of like how you could buy ships in EvE with real dollars converted into ISK if you wanted, but you don’t need to. Potentially in EvE the losses are “more real”. The first time the goons took down a Titan for instance, using primarily a swarm of garbage starter ships… I think the Titan itself represented a rough equivalent of a few thousand real world dollars at the time. Up until that point, folks didn’t really think you could destroy one, but they did, and the guys who owned it were just out that money.
At this point, there’s tons of stuff already there. I think 3.0 in a few weeks is going to be the best indicator, since a lot of the mechanics are going to be active at that point.
I think we’re past the point where it’s possible that “nothing gets completed”. Something is going to come out the other end of this drawn out process. The question is more along the lines of, “How well will that something match up with what Roberts said he was going to build.” And that question is way harder to answer.
There’s already a lot of cool stuff going on, tackling significant technical hurdles… but the biggest hurdle that we haven’t seen tackled yet, is whether or not they can make a fun game. Because while there’s lots of cool stuff in there now, and space combat and flying is very well done, outside of the flying there’s been limited “fun” gameplay.