Gender and race. Both powerful forces for both candidates. In order for the poll to accurate, you’d need an equal sampling of both genders and with an appropriate correlation (based upon population size) to race.
Eh. What do I know? My degree is in English Lit.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/dems.super.tuesday/index.html
[i]The senator from Illinois also said he would be the best candidate to beat Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the emerging front-runner in the GOP presidential race, because of his early opposition to the Iraq war.
Obama has criticized Clinton for voting for the 2002 resolution that authorized President Bush to use force against Iraq to enforce U.N. sanctions.
“When I’m debating John McCain, he won’t be able to say, ‘Well, you supported the war, too’ because I didn’t,” Obama said.
As the candidates made a last-minute push, a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll out Monday showed Obama erasing Clinton’s lead among Democrats nationally. The two are in a virtual tie, with Obama at 49 percent and Clinton at 46 percent, the poll found.[/i]
At this point, I don’t see Clinton gaining ground; she can only hold or slide more.
There’s always time for a Gary Hart/Dean moment that turns the election based on totally irrelevant criteria.
Obama’s not that vulnerable. Look what Hil dropping the hint that Obama was an Uncle Tom slum lord pal did in South Carolina. Or rather, look at what it didn’t do.
The people who listen to Hannity, Limbaugh etc. don’t actually -follow- them. This kind of talk just shows you have no Conservative friends.
It’s already happened. It was Bill’s “Jesse Jackson” comment.
I’m not convinced that was irrelevant. It was a reminder that the Clinton administration was a time of hardball politics and that they were highly polarizing (admittedly in large part due to the Republicans). It was also put the spotlight on Bill and made people question whether Hillary was running on her own merit or on Bill’s and it made people consider if they really wanted Bill back in the Whitehouse.
Now today’s Hillary crying moment, I think that’s pretty irrelevant. I’ve watched video twice now and I still don’t really notice her tearing up. Sure she gets a bit emotional listening to an old friend talk about how great she is, but so what, that seems pretty normal. I don’t think that will make a difference one way or another to her ability to be President. On the other hand, having Bill running around like a lose cannon – that is relevant and would have an impact on her Presidency.
Most recently, Bill was chastising Ted Kennedy about No Child Left Behind. Signed into law six years ago, so he’s a bit late to the bandwagon. It’s also ironic, since Hillary voted for it. And she didn’t voice any reservations until her campaign was in full swing. It’s no wonder Kennedy shrugged her off in favor of Obama.
Meanwhile, she refuses to explain why she voted for use of force in Iraq. Apparently her hindsight is only 20/20 when it’s someone else’s mistake.
For me, that’s the Clintons in a nutshell.
Not only did she not voice any reservations, she’s on record with several speeches touting the breakthrough, wonderful nature of No Child Left Behind back when she voted for it.
Yeah, I don’t think that counts either. Give me a call when somebody’s boning a floozy on a yacht just in time for the Moral Majority to interrupt their busy rant schedules and attack as one. It’s like they haven’t really found their voice so far in this election.
A little over 90 minutes until the final Zogby trackers in CA, MO, and GA come out, even though they seem remarkably over-kind to Obama.
BTW, one polling anomaly that occurs to me: we may see an oversampled pro-Clinton spike in Monday and Tuesday polling numbers based on calls made on Sunday; color me sexist, but it isn’t too hard to imagine that calls placed during prime time during the Super Bowl had a likelier chance of getting worthwhile response from a woman than a man.
Then again, a dramatic underdog Super Bowl victory could make it a wash. A sort of cultural/psychological trickle-down effect.
But I think I’m just talking out of my butt at this point. I should probably just wait for tomorrow’s primary results. I’m sure there will be plenty of grist by then.
I would think men are more likely at home on Super Bowl Sunday. Women are out doing other things.
Nope. My best friend is the director of marketing/ratings research for FOX Sports. Most men on Super Bowl Sunday are at a party or sports bar (men tend to watch the game in large groups). If 6 guys are gathering at one other guy’s house, and if a couple of significant others stayed home, a pollster stands a much better chance of talking to a woman on Super Sunday than a man.
If it’s 2:00 am EST, it means it’s Zogby time.
John Zogby, put the bong down. Ain’t no way–no WAY–these numbers are happenin’ today:
Zogby tracker:
“13-point lead” for Obama in CA. That’s all I got right now. Will update as the numbers float in.
Yeah, that’s nutty. 13 points?! I mean, I really hope that number is even remotely close because I think the best way to get another Republican in the White House is for the Dems to nominate H.C. (at least, going up against McCain, maybe not against Robo-Mitt), but still.
I know a number who follow them slavishly. My ex-dentist, for example, never uttered a word or had a thought that Limbaugh didn’t insert into his otherwise empty mind. Listening to him expound at length on Limbaugh’s latest utterance of genius with my mouth wedged open, unable to respond, was more excrutiating than any of his dentristry. I don’t go there now.