KevinC
1810
Richard Burr exits the chat
Dow is down today. Oh well, things will look up when the pandemic is officially over on Easter.
The Conference Board is not on board. Of course, they’re talking about the economy, not the Dow Jones Industrial Average
It’s a really fascinating article on the details how everything collapsed last month.
It also makes me realize that the bottom we hit was not because everyone’s outlook on earnings was in the trash, but because of the liquidity bomb that went off. The reason markets came back up is not because investors are more bullish on equities but because liquidity has stabilized and they can make actual strategic investment decisions now with their assets under management. Since bond rates are still in the toilet though, emerging markets don’t have hope for a quick recovery, and everyone is flocking to the USD still, the strongest place to put your medium to long term investments seems to be US equities. So it seems to me unlikely we’ll see the stock market go down to last month’s lows.
Menzo
1815
The stock market is not the economy, but it’s still important.
How many of the people who panic-sold at the peak last month have been able to jump back in for the re-rise in the last couple weeks, do you think?
And how many will be able to time the peak again and sell when we inevitably crash again?
I feel somewhat bad for the people who sold at the bottom.
About the same percentage of people who go to the racetrack and pick the winning horses.
ShivaX
1817
I guess this thread lives on.
I’m still waiting for those damned tariffs on Euro wines and cheeses to be ended. A 25% jump in price overnight is no freaking joke.
Negotiators don’t given up leverage for nothing, and there are real disputes besides the noise Trump generated.
Timex
1821
It’s almost like economic isolationism always fucking sucks.
Ephraim
1822
Yep. Things are heating up again on the US-Canada-Mexico trade war front.
Enidigm
1823
It isn’t clear to me how EV tax credits impact Canada, and the article didn’t help.
Ephraim
1824
The tax credit of $4500 only applies to American built vehicles. I think you can figure out what happens next in terms of US consumer behaviour.
It’s a direct breach of the free trade agreements around automobile trade and manufacture with Canada and Mexico. Especially as all auto manufacturers are basically pledging to ultimately only make EVs.
I’m not saying Canada and Mexico don’t have similar protectionist incentives, subisidies, or tariffs. We do (Canadian dairy industry, I’m looking at you!). But the auto industry has been pretty open for awhile (starting with the Auto Pact in 1965) and this is going to set things back.
I know why it’s politically necessary for Biden and the Democrat’s electoral chances in the Rust Belt, but it’s still protectionism in action.
May also influence automaker behavior - I haven’t read about any insight into the cause of this decision, but Genesis just announced they will build their new GV70 EV in Alabama.
And you are definitely correct that it will influence consumer behavior. We had been looking into the Genesis GV70 & 80 but really would prefer an EV (like the Ford Mach-E). If the extra tax credit is available and applies to the new GV70 EV, then that makes my decision easier.
