I think they’ll notice the rising costs of “everything” but not necessarily associate them with tariffs, especially since I’m sure Fox News will spin this as the fault of Democrats somehow.
Anecdotally, what I’ve noticed is that Trump voters have this kneejerk reaction to taxes. Any cost can be borne, as long as it’s not a tax that shows up on their paystub. I see this all the time with regards to the healthcare debate, which I just rehashed with my parents over the weekend. They abhor the thought of any sort of Canadian or European style healthcare because “their taxes must be outrageous” (No surprise, they’re both on Medicare and are big fans of it. Sigh.). I tried to explain that my paychecks are already being “taxed”, as is my employer. It just shows up under a different category. They stubbornly refuse to budge on anything, though. Taxes bad, end of line.