Tariff like it's 1897


#381

And so long as we show the Chinese who’s the boss…


#382

This is due to front loading - US importers building inventory before 25% before 1 Jan. It isn’t a sign of US policy failing…


#383

It’s possible every conservative has been wrong my whole life on free markets, but I somehow doubt it.


#384

I think you’re misunderstanding?

The import growth surge (and higher deficit against China) in September is because US importers were increasing their orders before the 24 Sept deadline for tariffs on another $200 billion in trade. It’s pretty sound economically - but early and save 10%. Keep buying early to avoid the 25% hit in January. We’ve seen this before with other tariffs against China, e.g. solar panels last year.

This isn’t a sign of policy failure because it means the dropoff in imports from China will be that much steeper in 2019, after the holiday season. Recent data show advanced orders from China to the USdropping by about 30%, compared to 1% on average among all partners. US businesses in China are also preparing to shift what production they can to other factories in the region, e.g. SE Asia.

Note this can still be a bad idea economically. I merely was stating the policy was working as intended.


#385

Inflation is gonna crush us when those full tariffs hit.


#386

Inflation’s been a much bigger deal than anyone wants to admit, for years now. They always measure it by the CPI, and specifically ignore shit that constitutes a major portion of what we spend our money on, especially poor people… that being things like food, or fuel.

But anyone who actually shops for groceries knows that they have gone up WAY more in price than the publicly announced inflation rate.


#387

Jesus, tell me about it.

When I moved back from Boston to Tennessee, I was flabbergasted at how much cheaper grocery basics were. It was amazing.

In NC now, but we passed my recalled “Boston-level” prices a good while back and have kept shooting up from there.


#388

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

Regular CPI includes food and energy. Since 1982, CPI excluding food and fuel is 258%. Food has is at 254% and energy 226%.

People are extraordinarily bad at estimating inflation from their grocery and gas bills.

Edit: Maybe the impression comes because regular commodities are up much less: just at 143% of 1982 prices.


#389

Yea I know. Food costs are awful.


#390

Just switch to a diet of soybeans. Plenty to go around, now that China doesn’t want it!


#391

But the regular CPI isn’t what they use to calculate core inflation.

The government uses the CPI, minus food and energy.

There are rationales for this, in that video things can affect things like food suddenly, such as a drought or something, but i still feel like part of this is misleading, especially considering that for large portions of our population, food and energy constitute a very large chunk of their spending

I have a fairly consistent grocery shopping habit, and I always do it myself, virtually always at the same store. And prices for food have gone up significantly in the past decade.

To some extent, any energy costs role through the price of everything else… but i feel like the cost of food is left out and misleading.


#392

The federal reserve usually looks at core inflation because food and energy is too volatile. The CPI-W used for Social security does include those elements. In any event, food and energy have tracked overall CPI pretty well over the decades.

Where is the giant inflation problem that everyone has been ignoring for years now? The problem during pretty much the entire Obama administration was that inflation was too low.
Edit:


source: tradingeconomics.com

Food inflation has averaged just under 2% for the past decade. That’s a tad higher than the official inflation rate I think, but just about right on the official target rate.


#393

That’s the thing… I don’t think it really was. Groceries got a lot more expensive over those years.

I gotta imagine that increase has got poor folks pretty hard.

I know this is just my personal experience… Maybe groceries haven’t gotten more expensive for everyone. But mine definitely have.


#394


#395

Hey, look who benefited
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/china-buys-record-amount-of-russian-soy-as-it-shuns-u-s-growers


#396



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/dow-tumbles-more-than-450-points-in-early-trading-wiping-out-all-gains-this-year/2018/11/20/3ebabe98-ecce-11e8-96d4-0d23f2aaad09_story.html?utm_term=.195e347a1a2d


#397

And yet when the recession does hit (now?) they’ll just claim it is because the Democrats won the House.


#398

Fox News is already saying it.

I wish I was joking.


#399

The winning continues.


#400

A clear reaction to the Democrats winning the House!