Tax Reform Under Trump 2017


#908

S.O.R.I., got it.


#909

Looking at the morning news – I have to admit that the NY Times, CNN, etc… they’re all still giving this to the GOP as a win. They need to reframe the discussion and soon.


#910

But that would require them to not suck ass.


#911

Ok, I usually steer clear of P&R here, because these topics are not really open for discussion, and I don’t like being a target for hate speech, but what are you referring to? How does the Tax Reform bill affect you to the point where you have to go to a farm? Seriously, there are those of us who are already on the farm, so what?


#912

I disagree! I think as long as people argue in good faith, things are very much open for discussion.

@BrianRubin was obviously being hyperbolic, but there are certainly things in the tax bill that are going to hurt people on this board. @Wallapuctus can probably provide some specifics, if I remember correctly. Others too.

That’s a perfectly valid question to ask, Neal. In any case, welcome to the P&R dungeon.


#913

Just to give you a perspective from Kansas City: We’ve seen wall to wall commercials here during Football and the local news, and I’m sure lots of programs that I don’t watch, all about the tax bill, for the last 6 months. All of them show families or ladies talking sensibly about how we need to help the middle class with sensible tax cuts and to fix the deficit, and yet Claire McCaskill refuses to vote yes on this wonderful bill. (Note: these commercials started well before there was even a bill). And on the Kansas Side, they talk about calling Senator Moran and encouraging him to support the bill to help Kansan families and to finally fix our out of control deficit.

Anyway, so that’s what the donor class is doing in return for these politicians who just did them a favor. Running commercials like this. I’m sure they’ll change slightly going into next year, but they’ll keep coming. People will be relieved to know how Republicans passed Tax Relief for the average middle class American and finally fixed the deficit.


#914

The GOP know they are already screwed, that’s why they have no qualms about putting this terrible bill together. They know they either are going to lose 2018 because of Trump and co, or people will be retarded and vote Trump in for a 2nd term and then they have no shot at 2020. Either way they see the long term as them losing their position of power so they are doing every special interest they can before that happens.

They also know that it will not be easy to revert these special interest clauses, even once Democrats are in power. Democratic leadership is fucking awful at PR and GOP specialize at being obstructionist, and people’s memories are short.


#915

They have more money to spend on ads now too!

I think some of the old Republican faces will shuffle out but new shiny Republican faces will shuffle in, vowing to fight the deficit-creating, wasteful social spending that has ballooned the deficit so much! After all, the new faces didn’t vote for the tax reform but they vow to come in and clean up all the wasteful Washington spending!


#916

The silly thing is, If I was a big corp, the fact they don’t seem to be spending anyway aside, I am taking this tax relief and laughing to the bank, fully expecting reversals in 2-6 years. Why would I leverage ‘freed’ cash assets to invest significantly if future tax code reversals would put cash flow and ability to service new debt at risk?


#917

CEOs want to drive up stock price, because they work for the shareholders. They tend to get sweetheart stock options, too, so whatever they can do in the short-term to up the share price is very attractive. They will buy back stock to reduce the shares on the market to drive up the price, and they will look to acquisitions as a quick way to add perceived value.

Investing in the company by building new facilities is a slower way to drive up value. I think we will see some of that, but only as a natural part of growth that would happen anyway.

Then again, in the short term with heavy borrowing used to finance these cuts, we may see an upturn in the economy. After all, the bill doesn’t come due right away.


#918

I don’t understand why people keep saying this. The GOP won the Presidency with less than a majority of voting Americans. The won the House (handily!) with less than a majority of voting Americans. They don’t “know they are screwed”, they think they literally cannot lose again. The House districts didn’t suddenly become un-gerrymandered and they still control or can obstruct the majority of state legislatures. Plus whatever voter suppression plans they have coming up. They believe (probably correctly) that the worst case for them in 2018 is a return to gridlock where they control the House, Democrats control the Senate and they throw shit at each other every day while doing nothing but absorbing lobbyist money.

They’re also mostly cowards and will be terrified of being portrayed as substantially raising taxes, no matter how super rich focused it theoretically is. The Republicans finishing their transformation to pure evil didn’t suddenly make the Democrats angelic and wonderful (or competent), they just look better by comparison.


#919

Oh god, get the fuck over yourself. Clearly I was referring to the next Gilded Age we’re all heading into, where we’ll all be working for the wealthy landowners.


#920

Here’s the thing: everything in this world has a cost. Typing this post? That has a cost, namely the time that I could spend doing something else.

Everything costs something.

And in politics that cost is paid in political capital; that is, the goodwill of voters, fellow politicians, etc. When a Democratic congress enacted a second stimulus plan in February of 2008, that had a cost beyond the dollars in the bill. When they voted in the ACA that had a cost, too, on both sides, from voters who thought it was “socialism” on the right and voters on the left who thought it didn’t go far enough.

Last night the Republican senate made a big ol’ purchase. We won’t know the price tag until November of 2018, and even then that may just be a partial price tag, with the full invoice not arriving until 2020. And yeah, I’m well aware of FOX News. I bet even Josh Marshall at TPM has heard of it, and may be somewhat familiar with what it does. Just a hunch.

But no, I’m not interested in “Woe is me” really. I’m interested in making sure that political cost is as high as it can be at the ballot box.


#921

+1. Make them squeal.


#922

What we do know:

  1. This tax bill is massively unpopular
  2. Every poll on “ownership” of the breaking of the ACA with the individual mandate repeal shows that the public puts that ownership on Republicans by a large margin.
  3. The President of the United States is a massively unpopular figure, especially when compared to the current economic upturn we’re on. If this tax bill blunts things like consumer confidence (which crested 100 in the Michigan State CSI measurement last month for the first time in a long time) that will have repercussions.
  4. All of those things in the first three statements are part of the costs of the thing that the Republicans just bought for themselves.

#923

All true, and none of which matters until people actually vote for their own best interests instead of sticking with their own political “team”. Didn’t happen in 2016. Hasn’t happened in most states for years (witness - Republican legislatures). Maybe 2018 will be the turning point. I certainly hope so. But recent history sure doesn’t make me optimistic. And an unpopular tax bill that will be many months out of the news cycle by the next election, with its worst effects still years away, doesn’t strike me as something that will shift the balance.


#924

Thank you, Kevin. I am a conservative Republican, and I’ll try to limit myself to a few replies and see how it goes. As for the Tax Reform legislation, I am always in favor of lower taxation, no matter who benefits. I can see how people who depend on government assistance oppose lowering taxes for wealthy people. However, this will not cause the country to crater or lead to some dystopian nightmare society (to be clear, I am not suggesting this is what you think, but a lot of the chatter here suggests this).

BrianRubin
Oh god, get the fuck over yourself. Clearly I was referring to the next Gilded Age we’re all heading into, where we’ll all be working for the wealthy landowners.

Excuse me, this is exactly what I was referring to. Your tone is hostile, you clearly are not interested in discussion.


#925

I think the best we can hope for is that all the economists and experts are wrong about this bill. Hopefully it WILL spur huge economic growth and will bring lots of companies back to the U.S. where they will invest a lot into the US workforce and our economy. And therefore the economy will grow, the taxes taken in as a result will grow as well, and the deficit will shrink.


#926

I’m not, I’m too filled with despair, and I just wanted to express that, but it wasn’t directed at you personally. If you feel it was, maybe you should explore why you think that is.


#927

Yep, We’re all Kansans now.