Tennis 2018: How long can the old guard keep going?

I tried not to find out the winner of the ladies final this morning. The plan was to drive to my parent’s place before work and watch the repeat of the match on ESPN2. My phone told me who won in notifications, NPR told me on the drive over. I just couldn’t get away from it.

But for once, knowing the winner did NOT hurt the viewing of the match. It was such a good match, with so many ups and downs and swings of momentum, that knowing the eventual winner didn’t actually hurt at all.

Wow, Wozniacki won the women’s title. Good for her – I remember a few years ago when she was the ‘#1 who couldn’t win a slam.’

GOOO FED

La Decima x 2!

Really, 20 majors is astounding. And he’s also the best player in the world right now, so he may add to that total.

This one might haunt Cilic. Not only was he seemingly unprepared at the start (lost his first two service games in the first set), but, after battling back and heading into the final set, Cilic was playing better, moving better, and looked to have more energy than Federer. Then, Federer goes on to win the fifth set 6-1. Cilic seemed positive in his post-match interview though.

Winning slams after 30 is rare in tennis. However, not only has Federer managed to win four slams past that age, he has won more slams in his late 30s than his early 30s. It’s unreal. I have to think he wins Wimbledon this year too.

Federer is one victory away from being World Number 1 again. He won a match in the ABN Amro World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam. One more win and he reaches the semifinals and gets the No 1 ranking, beating Agassi’s record of being the oldest number 1 player.

Go Fed go!

Fed is amazing. There’s really no telling how long he can stay on top. He’s playing better than anyone in the world over the last year and who is there to challenge him? Nadal, I guess, whom Fed has beaten the last four times they have played and who gets hurt a lot. Nadal is almost 32 also, so he’s not young either.

If Roger can stay healthy and be smart about scheduling, he’s the favorite at Wimbledon and probably the USO.

Then again, he’s probably one serious injury away from retirement. I worry about his back.

It’s official. When the rankings are next released Fed will be #1. He will be the oldest ever #1, will be the player with the longest time between #1 rankings (5+ years), and his record of 302 weeks at #1 will continue to grow.

Congrats to the greatest.

That’s amazing. Two years ago I wouldn’t have bet he’d win another slam, much less 3 and reclaiming the #1 ranking.

This is doubly impressive since Federer skipped last year’s clay court season (missing out on lots of points at the French Open and three Masters events). It’s almost Serena-esque.

Yeah, and he may not hold onto #1 for long if Nadal comes back strong from his minor injury. Fed has a lot of points to defend at the Sunshine Double, Miami and Indian Wells, and then he probably disappears for the clay season. And Fed apparently has said he won’t play Dubai next.

Still, awesome, and Nadal needs to win to wrest the ranking back.

The one record that might out of Roger’s grasp is Connors 109 tournament wins. If Fed wins this Rotterdam tournament it will put him at 97. I believe he won 7 last year so to top 109 would be a strong year this year, next year, and a few wins the year after when he would be 38.5 years old.

Connors was a machine and played in an era when there was less focus on slams above other tournaments. I’d be surprised if Fed caught up to that… but who knows? I should stop trying to put a limit on what he can achieve.

The child is NOT father to the man. Fed beats Baby Fed in Rotterdam for his 97th title, says his next goal is 100 titles.

Who knows how long he can play at this high level? I wouldn’t expect a lot of physical decline in the next year or two. If neither Djokovic or Murray regains top form, the only player at his level is Nadal, and Nadal seems to get hurt every year. Maybe Fed has another 2-3 majors in him.

I’m thinking Federer has a good chance to surpass Connors’ tour titles record. Who knows if Djokovic ever gets back to where he was (he had fallen off a bit before his injury) and I’m pretty sure Murray’s done as an elite player given his injury. Wawrinka has been in poor form this season and the late ‘90s players like Zverev and Kyrgios are not there yet. Maybe Thiem can do something at the French Open this year, but otherwise him and his early ‘90s peers like Dimitrov, Ranonic, etc. are seeming like a completely lost generation at this point. It’s easy to forget that Nadal’s a tennis-generation younger than Federer but given his style of play it does not seem out of the question that Federer ends up playing longer than him. So given all that, another 12 or so titles for Roger does not look that farfetched. The one major record that might be out of reach for Federer to break is Sampras’ six year-end #1s. He had a great chance to tie it last year, but I don’t think he’s going to play in enough tournaments moving forward to get the two more YE #1s he needs to break it. But then, I thought he was done winning slams a few years ago too so. . .

It’s hard to fathom Federer went five whole years without winning a slam before last year considering where he’s at now. He’s simply incredible.

He came close to some major wins, but Djokovic was playing at an extremely high level. No one was beating him for a couple of years.

Federer switched to a bigger racket. That seems to have been the difference. He hits his backhand with a lot more authority now. Nadal used to eat up Fed’s backhand with his high-bouncing forehands to Fed’s backhand side. Now Fed often steps into the court and hits some savage backhand winners before the ball bounces too high.

I think Fed has a chance to end the year #1. Nadal will regain #1 in the clay court season as long as he is healthy. That’s not a given, though. I think some of the younger players like Thiem have a shot at Nadal on clay too, though Nadal is stronger mentally it seems.

Nadal and Wawrinka have pulled out of Indian Wells and Miami (Murray’s out too, of course). I haven’t heard anything about Djokovic withdrawing, so I guess he’s set to return? Anyway, this gives Federer a decent chance of holding onto the #1 ranking with a strong result at either of them, in which case he should have it until Wimbledon.

In other news, the promising (and likeable) young American Frances Tiafoe won his first tour-level tournament at Delray Beach last week, beating del Potro and fellow youngsters Chung and Shapovalov in the process. He’s the youngest American male player to win a tournament since Andy Roddick.

Djokovic just started practicing again. I would be very surprised if he plays at Indian Wells.

Fed has to be the heavy favorite at IW, but sooner or later the young players have to start winning a bit.

In media related Tennis news, Amazon Prime will exclusively cover the U.S. Open this year in U.K and Ireland, apparently. Glad that’s not the case here in the U.S.

I’m still unsure of how I’m going to watch the French Open and the Russia World Cup this summer. Last year French Open wasn’t on ESPN, it was only on Tennis Channel, and the World Cup will be on Fox Sports this year. Being a cord cutter and a sports fan is getting very complicated.

If you can get access to basic broadcast channels, NBC usually has French Open coverage on weekends, including the finals. Fox will probably carry a few World Cup matches this summer too.