The 2018 Midterms Game Day Thread of Angst, Worry, (and maybe some hope?)


#2010

It enhances the smarmy softness of his alien mask.


#2011

#2012

As Bono of U2 once implored the audience at Red Rocks: “Sing this with me, this is 40.”


#2013

I just noticed a certain striking resemblence between these two candidates. Are we sure these are two separate entities?


#2014

The early vote returns in Mississippi are a little more interesting than the Republican incumbent would’ve liked.

Espy running with good numbers so far. But very early. Hyde-Smith still the favorite, but this may be a single-digit win, perhaps.


#2015

And now with more vote reporting, looking more like the 8-12 point win that the state’s fundamental dynamics would suggest.


#2016

It feels right somehow to have my undying hatred for the state, politics, people, and highways of Mississippi validated once more.

I mean, shitty, also, but right.


#2017

Love driving through Mississippi. Beautiful state when you’re passing through fairly quickly.

They may call this now fairly soon. Espy down about 11 points.


#2018

Hinds County has a TON of Democratic votes still to count, but nobody should be under any illusion that Espy might win. It’s going to be a lot tighter than 2016, but that’s about it.


#2019

Well, at least it was quick.

Projection: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) has defeated Mike Espy (D) in the #MSSEN runoff. But she's done so w/ an underwhelming margin for an R in MS.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 28, 2018

#2020

expect calls soon. For Cox.


#2021

Does that make it Dems +40, or +41?


#2022

Mississippi is the only state in the US, I haven’t visited. Electing yet another racist, to Congress isn’t exactly big incentive for me to go visit there.


#2023

#2024

40! Might have been 50+ if some districts weren’t gerrymandered to hell. Thanks, Trump!


#2025

I’m waiting for a 538 analysis on this. Democrats won about 53.2% of the total House votes in the midterms and about 54.0% of the seats. I’m not sure if that’s what’s expected or not, though, given how votes are counted. (For instance, if every district had the same distribution of D and R voters–53/45–, D’s would have won 100% of the seats.)


#2026

Wasn’t this mentioned on a different thread. That in a winner take all situation, 54% of the vote should net you 60% of the seats?


#2027

You’d have to pay me to go there. Same for Alabama if I’m honest. Every other state has something of value I’d like to see. AL and MS have nothing I care about. Just lots of racists and poverty. I can get that in Louisiana and also see something interesting.


#2028

In this same thread: The 2018 Midterms Game Day Thread of Angst, Worry, (and maybe some hope?)

Just be clear, I was not saying that 54% -> 60% would apply to any first past the post system. It’s what you’d expect specifically in the US based on historical performance, while something like the UK would have different parameters for the curve. But I think no matter what, you’d expect the marginal value of a vote to be higher in a close election, so the curve has to be logistic rather than linear.


#2029

Alabama had the NASA facilities. That’s why I went.

I would never visit for any other reason.