Lead grows with the new ballots.
LOL this is basically the plot of VEEP.
More about the FL Amendment 4 and why it may very well shift the electorate.
- 1.4m people had their voting rights restored.
- Blacks were 5 times more likely to have their voting rights revoked than whites.
- In 2017 more black people lost the right to vote than white people even though blacks are only 13% of the population.
- Dickless Scott granted clemency to three times as many white men as black men.
- Of the people removed from the rolls last year, 52% were Democrats and 14% were Republicans.
If we extrapolate those statistics, especially that last one, (dangerous, I know), 55% of people voted during the last Presidential election. I will use 50%. I will also suggest that Republicans are twice as likely to vote.
1,400,000 voters
52% Democrats = 728,000 Democrats
50% voters = 364,000 additional D votes
14% Republicans = 196,000 Republicans
100% voters = 196,000 additional R votes
Figure the independents are split and they wash out.
Note this is a very generous tilt for the Republicans since 100% of their voters showed up while only half the Democrat voters did.
Net gain: 168,000 D votes.
In 2014 Scott beat Crist by 64,000 votes
In 2016 Trump beat Hillary by 113,000 votes
We already see how tight the races are in 2018. Both are well under 50,000 votes.
Does anyone still think this will not make a difference?
BTW, thanks for doing this.
I sure seems like it’s enough to turn the tide, which means if DeSantis wins we should expect two years of escalating disenfranchisement efforts in Florida.
Nicely done. Anyone else want to do the math as well?
Expect the vote in Arizona to swing back towards McSally. That apparently was a very favorable batch for Sinema.
I’m trying to gather a cohesive framework from Arizona vote data gurus, but it seems like LATE mail-in votes favor Sinema strongly, earlier votes favored McSally. The tranche of votes that was just counted in Maricopa was heavy on late mail-in votes.
BUT…at least half the remaining 346,000 votes in Maricopa are also late votes. So…yeah. It’s gonna be close.
How many California ballots are out there still?
Ha.
Gillum now trailing by 36,000, and 0.4%.
Just realized who his lawyer is: the guy who repped Bush & Cheney in 2000. LOL
Oh man, that would be a sweet pickup. I was just lamenting earlier today how poorly the leftward side of the party did on Tuesday.
Also, Mimi Walters is a Trump-loving shithead.
Enjoy your shithole dacha on the Black Sea, Dana, you POS traitor.
Classic GOP play ook here
What? I don’t pay attention to the news for the day and all the sudden Sinema is winning?