It was either Wasserman or one of the Nates who posted that Ted Cruz’s internal polling had the senator up by 10 in Texas. Then Trump did a couple of rallies there in the same 1-2 day span. The next poll Cruz took a few days later, he was only up 5.
Trump’s schtick plays for his base in places like Missouri, Indiana, Tennessee, etc.
But it didn’t play in Nevada at all. (Heller lost NV-SEN, Laxalt lost NV-GOV) or really in Arizona or Wisconsin. And McSally and Heller did NOT want Trump to come out at all that last weekend before election day.
Gardner is toast. His approval in Colorado is lower than Trump. Much lower. In fact, it is so bad that I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t bother running at all.
2 years is a long time so it can turnaround, but people are very upset with him. He was voted in to be a very moderate Republican, to at least act like Collins. Instead he has been a complete GOP toadie, except on some very superficially issues. Additionally, he very visibly ducked meeting with constituents and has said some nasty things about his voters. Groups in Colorado have been holding Town Halls with cardboard cutouts of Cory because he has been avoiding everyone. Not a great look. His votes for Kavanaugh , the ACA repeal and tax cuts will haunt him.
This isn’t to say it is a sure thing. Colorado has some deep libertarian and conservative veins that can be mined if the Dems arent careful…but with Trump doing his thing and an educated electorate growing more blue by the year, it doesn’t look good.
As for who will run against him? I have no idea. Hickenlooper perhaps if his presidential run flames out… But ultimately I’m not sure it matters. Bennett was reelected in 2016 and no one even likes him. This year good GOP reps were swept from office, like the SoS Wayne Williams. GOP is dying in Colorado.
Elway is always a threat for the Dems because he is politically minded and he is a God out here… But his popularity is shrinking as he mismannages the Broncos, and I’m not sure Elwas wants to nuke his legacy in the state. He isn’t remotely liberal.
This FB post by a friend of a friend is too good not to share:
Year 2013: I’m a 22 year old queer who moves to Kansas to paint a rainbow house across from a notorious hate group. I realize the politicians here are more dangerous than the hate group; however, the people seem nothing like the politics that dominate. I start to really like Kansas. My boss asks me when I’m coming back to New York since this project was suppose to only be a few months. I tell him “I think I live in Kansas now.”
2014: The most extreme right-wing one-sided government in KS history is elected.
2015: Brownback rescinds LGBTQ protections by executive order making it legal to fire and harass LGBTQ state workers. The KS government increasingly uses prejudice and scapegoating to distract from their failing economic experiment. In response, we organize the largest protest in many years. I get messages from gay state workers who are scared for their safety and future. Kansas is a very dark place in this moment… A Senator walks by me in the Statehouse and softly mentions how wrong the attacks on the LGBTQ community are.
2016: I leave LGBTQ activism to devote myself completely to voter registration and turnout. I’m convinced that if more young Kansans voted things would be different.
2017: 1/3 of the KS legislature is newly elected as a rebuke to Brownback. The first week of session they are greeted by over a thousand Kansans screaming “Whose House? Our House.” We’ve united different groups under a Kansas People’s Agenda demanding change. The Legislature starts to turn things around and activism is growing. The Brownback Experiment is repealed… Some random lady messages me saying she wants to talk about the future of Kansas. She’s pretty great.
2018: That random lady, Sharice Davids, is elected the first LGBTQ Congressperson from Kansas. She gives a victory speech surrounded by LGBTQ youth. I’m overwhelmed thinking back to how most my life I thought accepting my sexuality meant forfeiting my future. The same night Brandon Woodard and Susan Ruiz are elected the first LGBTQ Kansas State Representatives.
2019: The Senator who softly spoke words of solidarity to me in 2015, Laura Kelly, is the Governor and her first executive order is restoring LGBTQ protections to state workers.
Nothing.
Nothing.
Nothing happens by accident.
Every drop of decency is fought for.
I don’t see much of a path for Nelson at this point. Even with the undervoting, he would need almost all of them to go his direction to make up that difference.
How many governorships and state legislatures did the Democrats flip?
Moving forward, that’s what may end up mattering more.
It will allow them to better implement the 2020 census, and not screw Urban areas by poorly counting the population there, and if they can hold on in the 2020 election, they will be able to undo a lot of the gerrymandering.
Hopefully, they won’t just implement their own gerrymandering.
