The 2018 Midterms Game Day Thread of Angst, Worry, (and maybe some hope?)


#1969

Beto says he’s not interested, but someone like him, please.


#1970

None I could discern.


#1971

Roll (blue) tide:


#1972

40 seats in this gerrymandered to fuck country. Holy shit.


#1973

Exactly.

The “blue wave” is a hell of a lot stronger and more subtle than the media reports. There was nothing at all disappointing about the midterms for Democrats. Sure, we had individual races like Texas, Florida and Georgia where it would have been nice to pick up an underdog win, but those races were also a hell of a lot closer than predicted, and now we’re looking at an incredible pickup of for sure 39, and probably 40 seats in the House.

That’s all a byproduct of what is happening right now. Yes, it’s true that Republicans came out in force this midterm just like they did in 2016. It’s true that Trump and the GOP have energized their base and some others on fears of Caravans, Antifa Mobs and other boogeymen, and that some voters who have sat out the last few elections have returned to the polls to support Trump and the GOP out of some misguided sense that they’re being “represented” again in politics.

BUT…what we’ve seen in the past two elections represents the pinnacle of GOP turnout. Look at how hard the GOP had to work to get results, having Trump campaigning non-stop, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into ad campaigns, all while having a built-in advantage in a lot of places thanks to gerrymandering and voter suppression, and they still LOST a ton of those races.

Meanwhile, new voter registration among people identifying as Democrats and Independents is crushing Republican registration in most states that track party affiliation. GOTV movements are far more effective in registering and mobilizing potential Democrat voters than Republican ones, and several national studies have reported record numbers of people 18-30 registering to vote for the first time in the past 2 years, and that demographic is slanted heavily Democrat as well. In fact, nationwide voter registration counts show Democrats with as many as 12 million more registered voters than Republicans in states that record party affiliation at registration.

If that’s not a fucking wave then I don’t know what is. Democrats have ONE job between now and 2020, and that is to keep Americans energized behind candidates like the ones they ran in the midterms. The GOP will do a fine job of keeping people outraged enough to vote in 2020, so Democrats just need to give them candidates worth voting for. (Hint : NOT Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, Warren or any other old, white, establishment Democrat)


#1974

I like Pelosi. One of her son in laws is Dutch.

Anyone with a Dutch Son in law is pretty awesome. That’s what I tell my Mother in Law.


#1975

#1976

#1977

The GA-07 hand recount is done, and the Democrat came up short.

So…we’re down to that California CD.


#1978

If Valadao does lose it would actually support the make up of the district, which is mostly democrat. It is amazing he lasted this long. Also Cox was not a very good candidate in my opinion. It is not my district but it is next door so I saw a lot of ads and read some about it.


#1979

And with a new Fresno vote dump earlier, Valadao’s lead drops to 447 votes.


#1980

#1981

And they’re right. This has looked like at least a tossup for a week now.


#1982

#1983

The optimism, it burnnnnsss us


#1984

#1985

Gerrymander works until it doesn’t. Democrats got 53% of the votes but 54% (assuming a find 235-200 split) of the seats.


#1986

In fact, one of the gerrymandered seats is none other than that UT-04 district. It was deliberately gerrymandered to keep the folks in SLC from being able to elect a Democrat to the House.

And that firewall just failed.


#1987

By 690 or so votes. It was a squeaker!


#1988

Afraid that’s still gerrymandering working. First as a side note, the number to consider is the two party vote share rather than raw popular vote. That’s 54%, not 53%.

That’s still parity between the votes/seats. But in a first past the post two party system you’d expect the share of seats as a function of share of votes to be a logistic curve, not linear. The changes in vote share around 50% should have a disproportionate impact on the share of seats.

Just eyeballing some graphs (rather than actually computing the numbers), a 54% two party share of the vote should historically be leading to about a 60% of the seats. The Democrats should have won 260 seats with a popular vote win of this magnitude.

So it wasn’t that the win was large enough to systematically break through the
gerrymandering. It’s that there were still enough states around with fair maps that the 35 stolen seats wasn’t enough to tip control.