Shit. I would have loved president Warren for the next 8 years. Would imo have been the best outcome. Alas.
Super Tuesday simulator up on 538…kind of a fun thing to play around with for a minute or two, though the main lesson seems to be that “no-one” is the overwhelming favorite and nothing much that happens on Tuesday will change that.
The overall 538 ‘no majority’ is up to 2 in 3. My uninformed assumption is that outcome would be bad for Bernie and probably result in Biden as the nominee. Is there any reason to expect it to work out otherwise?
It will all depend on who the second choice is for delegates of the other candidates, really. I suspect you’re right, but that’s just gut feel. Actual data would require more knowledge of who the delegates will be (or at least how they’ll be chosen and statistics of likely second choices based on that). I am not aware of any of that data existing, perhaps outside of some deep dives inside one or two of the campaigns (Bloomberg has likely paid for some of those sorts of analyses).
So say we all.
Wow.
Probably kills Biden in Minnesota, where Bernie stands to rake the pot.
But may help Biden to consolidate elsewhere.
Purtymuch.
Wonder if Bernie offered her VP, to counteract Pete dropping out (EDIT: I’m guessing she said no, if she’s endorsing Biden)
So the moderate lane is down to Biden and Bloomie. I think Bloomberg is going to get hammered tomorrow, but maybe that doesn’t matter. As he explained in an interview I saw yesterday, his strategy depends on no majority for the first vote at the convention. This frees the delegates to change candidates, and he thinks he can present himself as the most electable.
I don’t think that works if Biden is viable and has more delegates than Bloomberg. I think the good mayor’s chances depended on Joe losing SC and losing big tomorrow.
Pretty crazy how much the narrative has changed in the past week. I’ve didn’t think too much of the long term implications of the whole Hunter Biden thing because I thought it was going to be for a candidate that had no shot surviving past primary season yet here we are.
Yeah, I hate to break it to Bloomie, but pledged party delegates aren’t going to pick him over Grampy Joe, unless Biden has some sort of health scare.
“Abigail Spanberger Democrats”.
Word has it the BLM protest rattled Amy and the campaign feared it could lead to an embarrassing loss in MN. Bernie has been within striking distance. If true that protest will have reverberations yet to be revealed.
“As goes Maine…”
Yes, I remember the Maine.
I have only seen fever-dreamed Sanders folks with no personal knowledge speculating on this thus far.
It’s hard for me to believe that the protest inspired her to not only leave the race, but also fly to Dallas today to endorse Biden. That seems like something that was days in the negotiation process.
I have an informed source. Not a feverish Bernie Bro. Time will tell.
I don’t think that works if any of those delegates saw Bloomberg in the debates.
I never wanted Bloomberg to even be in the race, but the one small thought in the back of my mind was that, given how forceful his ads were, he could maybe wallop Trump in face-to-face debates. And then he opened his mouth.