Underemployment is a big problem, and wages are a big problem.
When people say ‘the economy,’ they usually mean the DJIA, Unemployment or GDP. That works well for investors.
I don’t think that’s how average people think about ‘the economy.’ For a working class person, what matters is take home pay, big costs (e.g, healthcare, housing, tuition), and how much savings they have. I’m sure there’s a measure for this, but I don’t know what it is. Maybe Consumer Confidence?
Yeah, the reign of GWB is a good example. Sure, the stock market recovered after 9/11, but it never really did for the majority of Americans. Most Americans were treading water and best, then got torpedoed again in the housing crash.
I know the few years have seen small movement in wages, but the average American has a lot of ground to make up and is still behind the curve. And this is before the next crash/recession/whatever hits and dunks us all again.
But as the wealthy get exponentially more wealthy, it’ll raise up the net value of the average American, even if the median American drops into the basement. Clearly that’s the measuring stick that Trump & friends use for American success.
Interestingly, Australia hasn’t had an official recession since 1991. Some theory that the central bank there does a better job managing the money supply. It may be that the majority of recessions are due to mistakes by the central bank.
Just making a wild guess, I’d say population growth rate is a factor there.
I’m afraid that ultimately this kind of back-and-forth reads as you hedging your bets. My point is that the coming recession isn’t because it’s the magical time and now we are somehow “due” for a recession, but that the current administration’s policies are causing it. Because, well, they have little to lose and the Democrats will clean it up anyway. As has been the pattern. For decades. This is unarguable.
No. They aren’t. And you prove this point by saying…
…this.
I don’t doubt you are talking in good faith. The problem here is that the economy relies a lot upon the trust that the people buying things have in the people who are running the economy. And most of the people in this country know that the guy running things is inherently untrustworthy. He’s a liar. A cheat. A tax-fraud. We all know this. These things are not up for debate. He contradicts himself within his own sentences. So consumers have a problem with that, even if this is in a seeping sort-of subconscious way.
I think that’s why you’re seeing that disparity.
-xtien
Yeah he is.
While it fell to 120, 120 is still an extremely high level for consumer confidence. You basically have to go back to the late 90’s during the dot com boom to see it higher.
Why do I care what happened last July? I thought we were talking about current events.
That graph goes back to the year 2000.
You posted an article talking about how its fallen to 120.
The graph is illustrating how 120 is still extremely high from a historical perspective.
Right, but as the Mueller investigation continues to close in, do you really expect it to suddenly start rising again? Or is it more likely to continue to drop? Who knows what Trump will do next to distract from the numerous crimes he, his family, and cohorts are likely to have committed.
Healthcare, housing, and education costs continue to outpace the current low wage growth. Friends in manufacturing have expressed concern to me about how they’re going to pass on their increased costs due to the tariffs, while still staying competitive… one of their companies has recently had to back off of an expansion. The stock market has taken a massive hit in the last six months… and digging deeper into retail many of what I’d consider “luxury” brands have been hit hard, while the “cheaper” brands are doing well.
There are plenty of signs that things could take a turn.
I’m just pointing out that the numbers are very high.
On some level here, this is reminiscent of discussions i had with Trump supporters in 2016, telling to explain that the economy was strong, despite what Trump was saying.
Folks, we have all the same economic indicators… Most are actually better than when Obama left office.
The economy is strong by any reasonable metric… or, if you think it isn’t, did you think the same in 2016?
Right, but it’s gone up roughly 25 points during the Trump Presidency. And now it’s dropped about 20% in the past few months. Doesn’t that seem concerning or indicate that confidence is dropping rapidly? 20% of his confidence gains has been wiped out.
There are reasonable metrics by which it isn’t strong, and yes, I felt the same way in 2016.
I don’t think the Russia investigation has any effect on consumer confidence. No matter how many Trump misdeeds are brought to light, my spending doesn’t change in the slightest. And if by some miracle Trump ends up leaving office, then consumer confidence should increase with the probable lifting of tariffs.
Some sort of war or invasion would certainly shake things up though. As the investigation continues to close in, what lengths will Trump go to in order to distract from his demise? Or more tariffs, or the next trade war, etc. Or as a lot of people suddenly realize that they’re NOT getting the tax break that the GOP promised them when they file their 2018 taxes. That might erode some confidence on its own.
Eh, it goes up and down. Look at the graph.
Which is how Trump won in a lot of ways. He tapped into the fact that everyone is saying “the economy is good,” while a lot of people were seeing that it was shit for them. It’s a valid complaint. The next recession if it hits soon will break a lot of people. You can’t tell them everything is great because the stock market is strong while they work 2 jobs with no benefits and can’t make ends meet.
Indeed, both factors could be explained by a decline in worker’s bargaining power. The stock market is high because profits are high because people find it hard to get wage increases in line with their productivity.