4726

Jesus Christ, can you imagine being the US military trying to get residents in foreign countries to help you now? What could you tell them that they would believe? Interpreters vetted by the CIA with security clearance who risked their lives our troops and their families for supporting us… banned.

Do you want more terrorists and a a less effective military? This is how you get that.

4727

Explain it, in your words, so that we may know how it “warped” poll results.

4728

Oversampling is when you take a larger sampling of a particular group, and then use weighting based on population breakdown to reduce that influence on the overall poll.

Thus, over-sampling does NOT, as you suggested, result in a lopsided result that over-weights the opinion of the oversampled group. This is a misconception that seems to be often presented by Trump and his supporters, and demonstrates a failure to grasp what oversampling actually is.

The reason why oversampling is used, is to try and achieve a higher degree of confidence in the opinion on a section of the population which would otherwise be too small in a random sampling to give an acceptable error rate.

For instance, if a particular section of the population only comprises 1% of the overall population, then in a sample of a hundred you’re only gonna get maybe 1 person reprsenting that group. So you won’t be able to predict the opinion of that demographic with any degree of certainty, since you’re only going to have ONE instance.

So, if you care about providing insight into individual demographics, you oversample that group, by sampling additional people specifically selected from that demographic. And then (this is the key part which you are missing) you reduce the weight of that whole group’s opinion in the overall poll, by a factor which matches the demographic’s size within the overall population.

4729

But trump represents the opposite. He’s presenting policies which are socially regressive, and economically authoritarian. If you have traditionally considered yourself economically conservative, then I have to assume that you previously opposed things like economic isolationism. Such isolationism was the platform of socialists like Sanders, not conservatives.

4730

… And people who were considered fringe-right extremists like the John Birchers and Pat Buchanan. It’s just the fringe right has taken over.

4731

The internet has kind of allowed them to inject their bullshit into folks’ brains via websites that don’t really say who they are.

Like the Birchers run a bunch of other websites, like “The New American”, which promotes their same nutjob ideas, but gain more exposure than they would if folks knew they were the same folks who were previously cast out of mainstream conservatism because their beliefs were nonsensical, and conservative leaders like Buckley pointed this out.

4732

Is a ban of “people from muslims countries that don’t have trump hotels” actually.

hGlIiJj.jpg2048×1166

4733

Can we send Trump on a ‘diplomatic mission’ with Pence/Ryan/the Cabinet to one of the banned countries, and then deny them a return trip?

4734


We already fucked a lot of these people over in the past. Now we’re well and truly screwed when it comes to on-the-ground intel.

Oh also:



It isn’t just new immigrants/refuges.

4735

Some of those oh-so unfashionable facts, from conservative Cato no less:

4736

DOJ is supposed to vet policies for legality. But fuck those guys.

4737

New Gallup approval poll is out.

Trump’s net approval rating (approval-disapproval) has dropped eight points in a week.

(Approval is 42, disapproval is 50. Last week Gallup had both at 45.)

One poll does not make a trend … but screw it, I sure hope it becomes one.

4738

Well, when you elect a narcissistic egomaniac who views the presidency as equivalent to a corporation he just bought, and has zero respect for the position, and no concept of decorum, proportionality, or even an idea that yeah, maybe power isn’t totally uncircumscribed, this is what you get.

4739

Trump is trying to provoke terrorist attacks. There is nothing authoritarians like more than an excuse to crack down harder-- and there is nothing terrorists like more than a simple-minded authoritarian adversary. It’s a symbiotic relationship.

4740

1-4, utter fantasy. An absurd interpretation that has no basis in anything I’ve said or implied. You have a fair sized chip on your shoulder by the looks of it.

5, develop a political response to the depression existing in the rust belt with the loss of industry. Something marketable along the lines of the new deal or the great society, tailored to these times. You need to compete with Trumps promise to generate investment in these areas, instead of sitting there like a lemon, fooling yourself into thinking you are having the slightest impact with an ongoing, insular diatribe against Trump that appeals to no one except the converted, and stops anyone else participating in the conversation.

That’s entirely achievable. Incorporate health reform into that package, it’s a powerful argument. It tackles Trump on the leftwing areas he incorporated into his campaign. You need to campaign hard on jobs, and ease back on the endless politics of being offended. It’s gotten so out of control that it’s costing votes.

The next thing you need is a media that can leave it’s internal diatribe long enough to be able to communicate such a message, without screaming like an infant about racism etc. It doesn’t really matter I’d guys like you think you are magically undermine the President by posting hyperbolic rubbish to each other all day long. The medias participation in the same indulgence, however, is concerning. It will result in a shrinking of their influence, as the wider populace is sick of the vitriol.

You are right about the political cycle, but there has been none of the typical introspection that follows a defeat. This allows a reassessment and reorientation. If anything, the outrage has increased. This is the case for the media and their consumers, even for the Clinton advisers in the post elec briefs. It’s going in the wrong direction.

I expect the Dems will put out a stronger candidate, and if he’s a good one, he will basically tell you guys to shut the hell up so he can.win some of these voters back. But the task will be made much more difficult by a bitter and outraged media that has spent a few years calling these voters names. How are you going to unpoison that water? You need to have some media that is closer to the middle. But if they stop feeding you guys with daily outrage, they go broke now.

All these things, I’ve said them, explicitly, just a few hours ago. Why do I have to restate something for you? Can you not read for yourself? If you don’t agree, that’s fine, but at least have the.decency to read what you respond to.

Regarding forum names, ok, I got this.

HumanTon… hmm. The weight of verbal excrement you post on this forum on an annual basis?

Peanut.

4741

Click through to see the ad.

4742

Trump has promised fuck and all for the Rust Belt, except a bunch of taxes on foreign goods that don’t target the Rust Belt at all (but Rust Belt inhabitants will have to pay a high price for goods with the taxes, along with everyone else.)

As for diatribes against Trump having no effect except on the converted, try again. The poor, sensitive little snowflake’s net Gallup approval rating just fell eight points. In a week.

… I’ve been waiting for years for a reason to post that.

4743

Hahaha, I don’t agree with anything you say or how you interpret the facts, but I used to love the Tick.

4744

Sean Spicer:

4745

What in the fuck was that?