kerzain
4746
And who, exactly, is footing the bill for those ads?
Quaro
4747
It wasn’t great. If you go the real clear politics average, they overshot the popular vote by 2%, if you exclude the USC/LaTimes survery which uses a constant sample, the weighting of which consistently favoured Trump. 2012 prediction and variance is much worse.
But they are all trying to do their best to poll the popular vote, not the state vote. So it’s essentially useless in predicting the election, even if they get it right.
The USC survey is interesting, as the constant sample group seems to reduce peoples inhibitions in revealing their true voting intentions, and they polled them on the matter. All their data and weighting metrics is available on their website.
For whatever reason they’ve picked up the median margin shift in the last two elections pretty well (2012 performed under contract for RAND).
Also a bit unnecessarily rude and self-regarding to accuse someone of not knowing what oversampling is. All the polling groups weight their data. It’s not an exact science.
If you put heavy stock in opinion polling, a look at the average since the election is hardly convincing. He’s climbed 5 points since the election. Even that’s probably within the statisitical variance, neglecting any other influences.
Sure, he’s not the most popular President in history, and thats a fair point to make. But you’re running around like headless chooks every time there’s a downward shift in any opinion poll.
A few salient points on this, and not directed at you in particular HumanTon.
After 9/11 Saudi Arabia has been under all sorts of pressure to put an end to their terrorist financing, which is obviously the major source of those figures. Like it or not, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are major US allies, and there is much competition to maintain influence over Turkey.
The major terrorist threat today is ISIL, who are fighting in Syria and Iraq, and have involvement in the Yemeni conflict.
I don’t think it’s a very bright move by Trump, especially with regards to Iran. But the reasons being stated to oppose it are as obtuse as usual. Trump business interests? Give me a break. The idea that it will promote terror attacks is dense as well. Perhaps barely, but there’s a recent history of constant involvement in the region that serves their propaganda much better.
But heck, it’s just more of the same ain’t it? blah blah etc etc.
Quaro
4750
Per usual, even if Trump decisions are overturned immediately, he’s already done permanent damage.
You went through all that trouble to get a green card to become a permanent legal resident? Fuck you. We can take it away at any time. We can separate you from your children. We can reward you for helping us by sending you back to the people that want to kill you. We won’t even have the decency to notify you before you board a plane to the country that won’t let you in. We’ll punish you green card holders for cooperating with us and trusting the American Institution. What fools you were.
We know we are hurting the very people who cooperated and believed in us. And yeah, we know the end result will be people in the future are less likely to trust the Unites States, our legal system, and our legal guarantees. We don’t give a fuck.
Man, the look on Muir’s face as Trump peddles this tripe is amazing, he has no idea how to respond.
ShivaX
4752
So Trump removed the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from the National Security Council and put in Bannon. Director of National Intelligence also out.
But tell me again how this is all just fine and normal.
ShivaX
4753
Remember the complete disregard for laws is totally normal.
Calling out the federal marshals to go after federal immigration folks is something that totally happens every day.
ShivaX
4754
Look I’m not saying it’s a coup… but a lot of people are saying it’s a fucking coup.
What do we do with fascists?
I thought this must be fake news. Sadly it isn’t. WTF, in what universe does this make sense. I guess Trump must truly believe that anybody in Washington is an idiot including the joint chiefs.
I wonder if Mattis is going make it to the end of the year.
Canuck
4757
The end of the year is an entire year away. At the rate things are moving, I shudder just imagining the end of next week.
Teiman
4758
Or in other words: the escalation of violence is often the extremist talking with extremist of each side, and ignoring the desires of the non-extremist. Hawks empower other hawks.
LOL
I’d normally want to ask what specifically brought that about, but I feel like I’ve had enough blood pressure spikes this week, so I’ll leave it at LOL.
Timex
4764
For those interested in the facts about the National security council changes.
What the fucking hell is his reasoning (in public) for removing MILITARY and INTELLIGENCE people from the principal committee of the NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.
How can anyone who supports the travel ban on those seven countries as a measure of national security also look you in the eye and say that this idea is great for our national security?
