2801

(There were a few pundits yesterday and this morning trying to gin up some intrigue about whether this would be another crack in the slim Democratic majority in the House. Guess not.)

2802

That’s why they’re doubling and tripling down on voter suppression. It’s their way to power with the path they’ve chosen.

2803

Not just voter suppression, they’re also laying a lot of track to overturn any election they lose by replacing all the certifying officials at the state level with loyalists. It’s goddamn terrifying - we’re basically witnessing an attempted coup in slow motion.

2804

You and I have talked about the need to destroy the Republican party, which to me means precisely this, “non viable as a governing party.” They’ll still be viable as a regional party, but if the Democrats can pick up some Senate seats in the 2022 or 2024 election. Goodbye, filibuster and then Republican won’t even be viable opposition party.

I understand that Republican blatant voter suppression is scary shit. But past history shows that voter suppression seldom works. Even the old-style soft suppression like voter ID, was a terrific fundraiser for Democrats, (and not bad for Republicans either). But it did little to suppress the black vote.

Doubling down is the right term for what the Republicans are doing. But as any halfway decent blackjack player, doubling down is an important tool. However, it is critical to pick your spots when you double down…

Right now I think the Democrats are showing a 10, and the Republican have a 9, it is a crappy time to double down.

Even if the voter suppression works, or they manage to rest control of counting ballots, it may not be enough. The 60+ lawsuit in 2002 that were thrown out by judges, even Trump judges. When the Democrats file their lawsuits, this time, they’ll have evidence about how the Republicans stack the deck.

Meanwhile this assault on Democracy continues to drive away independent and sane Republicans. Some of these ex-Republican will join the Strollen, Timex, and Lincoln Party call for torching the party and their leaders. It won’t be pretty.

2805

Stuff like the Texas voter bill demonstrates that it ain’t just Democrats who shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly.

That bill was going to pass if it was left as is out of the state senate committee, but no. They had to add the overturn the vote provisions that generated more debate, and then put the Texas state house up against quorum rules. So…none of it passed (they’ll definitely be back to try again) but I can’t help but think the ham-fisted attempt to insert the election overturn provisions into that bill helped fuel election day in-person voting tonight in New Mexico. Stuff like that is a very effective GOTV tactic…for the other party.

2806

The speaker of the Texas house could have done stuff to force the vote, but he didn’t. I don’t think he even wanted to pass that bill. It’s a shitty bill.

2807

The Republicans aren’t serious, Biden had originally imposed a deadline of May 31 (which has subsequently been extended for two more weeks) and reduced their initial proposal. The GOP counter offer is barely above baseline spending (i.e. funds that have already been approved.) But Democrats have to “prove they’re serious”?

Timex ignored my question but maybe you won’t: Why do you think it’s an easier lift to get ten Republicans to vote for a Democratic bill than it is to get two Democrats to vote for a Democratic bill?

Voters don’t GAF if a bill is passed with bipartisan support, that particular fetish is entirely one sided and fueled by a beltway media that still insists on framing everything from a GOP prism. When the mid-terms roll around and with Democrats in (albeit barely) full control of Congress but haven’t delivered on “Biden’s agenda,” voters also won’t care about excuses. Instead there’s real risk that Democrats will instead have succeeded in alienating (some portion of) their voters, all in an effort to appease an extremist, anti-democratic, authoritarian party more interested in “ruling in hell than serving in heaven.”

2808

I don’t think is easier to get 10 Republican to vote for the bill than two Democrats. I do think is easier to get 20 or 30 Republicans than those to two Democrats. The Republicans just need to be able to go home and brag about all the wonderful projects they brought home to their states, fixing roads, airports, ports, and bring broadband and a better electric grid to the neglected rural regions. They also can brag about how they save $1 trillion of wasteful spending, which $30,000 of debt/person while keeping American business competitive (i.e a corporate tax rate of 25% instead of 28%). I.e. something in the 1-1.5. trillion range aka a true compromise.

I think most Republicans, think is both good politics and good for their region and country to spend on infrastructure. It is also very possible they will refuse to raise taxes to this, in which case they’ve pissed of Manchin, who is actually is a bit of a deficit hawk.

My take is a long as the two WV senators think they are making progress, Biden is smart to give them time.

2809

Strollen, I think you misunderstand where your former party is at these days. There are powerful reasons, some internal to the Senators, and arguably even more powerful reasons internal to the GOP voter base, the right wing media machine and GOP national party politics, that the GOP Senators are NOT going to do what you suggest.

Let’s go through this:

You are basically suggesting that the GOP agree to a “true compromise” of new infrastructure spending in the above-midpoint range somewhat higher than the split between the initial Biden position of 2 Trillion plus and the initial GOP position of nothing. And that the GOP would be motivated to do this being able to brag to their constituents that they brought home useful investments that improve things. Here’s why that won’t happen:

First off, at the national party level, the GOP is fighting as hard as possible to deny Biden any political wins and a healthy infrastructure package would be a Biden win, period. There are powerful institutional reasons why the Republican National Committee, the GOP Senate leadership and other powerful GOP entities would adamantly oppose, even if the individual Senators wanted to do it. Even worse and much more powerfully, any GOP Senator seen as giving Biden a win is going to get just abso-freakin’-lutely hammered by attacks in the inevitable GOP primary by a Trumpist candidate. The right wing media will rip the compromising Senator a new one daily. Trump will attack. And there’s an enormous risk the GOP base will vote that Senator out in the next primary. Even if the primary is not coming up, the media hit will hurt future fund raising and future campaigns. And even if the Senator survives the primary, they will have to spend vast time and money before they even get to the general election. And I haven’t even gotten to the Senate itself yet. Look what happened to Liz Cheney.

In addition, with the reality disconnect fueled by the right wing media that I mentioned above, it will be impossible for any GOP Senator to actually take much long term credit for this infrastructure package. There will inevitably be some parts of the spending in each state that the right wing media can attack: money for something the GOP hates or can manipulate into looking bad. So rather than an asset with their constituents, due to the reality disconnect, this will be a negative. It will be all “pork, money for bad stuff, money for lazy people, wasted money, fraud, abuse, bad, bad bad” 24/7 on the right wing media, NOT “building bridges is good”. Saving a trillion in “wasteful spending” will be meaningless b/c there’s are always more spending that can be accused of being “wasteful”. When 40% of the electorate is disconnected from reality and that 40% dominates that Senator’s primary, that Senator is a slave to the reality disconnect.

In addition, there is the issue of either taxes or the deficit, both of which are third rail nuclear death knells in the land of the GOP base/right wing media. There’s no way to spend a trillion or so on infrastructure without adding that to the national debt or to tax revenues over time. So the GOP Senators know if they vote for taxes, the right wing media will excoriate them for that and their own base will be furious. If the GOP Senators vote to add this spending to the deficit, they get attacked for that.

You’ll note I didn’t get into what the GOP Senators want or think. They may be the greatest bestest nicest people but the reality of their political situation means they are not going to give Biden a win; they are not going to open themselves up to the charges of Wasteful Spending!!! (however BS those charges may be) or Raising Taxes!!! or Raising the Debt!!!.

20 or 30 GOP votes for an infrastructure package big enough to matter without a lot of bad shit packed in there? Not. Going. To. Happen. 10 GOP votes? Not. Going. To. Happen. 1 or 2 votes? Eh, if the outcome is predetermined and its meaningless and can be use to polish a facade of bipartisan moderation, sure, but it won’t matter.

Keep in mind, the current GOP counteroffer is $250 billion in new spending, and only what 3? or 4? GOP Senators have been even lukewarm to it and my understanding is there are zero committed GOP Senate votes for even that tepid package.

Here’s the reality; either the Dems pass an infrastructure package via reconciliation or we get nothing, or not much more than nothing.

Now, if giving time is what it will take to get Manchin and Sinema on board, that’s OK, but we have to be realistic about what is possible.

The GOP is NOT going to give Biden a win and the infrastructure package would be a Biden win. Period. And that’s not even b/c the GOP Senators are terrible people; even if they were virtuous and wise, the internal realities and politics of their own party, their own media, and their base, have trapped them.

2810

No question that your version of events is probably true.
I think there is pressure on McConnell to allow the GOP to pass something, especially for the Senators up for re-election in purple or blue states. Not to mention at least 30 of the Senators did not come to DC, just to own the libs. They actually wanted to do something constructive. Plus there is safety in numbers if the vote is 80-20 Most Republican will be in favor of the bill so it will be harder for the base to come after them, when a Tom Cotton or Lindsey Graham also vote aye. Politically this will help them win independent at least that’s conventional wisdom.

Now mind you this the only bill, I think there is shot. I only say this because that what Biden says, and I think he has a better read on what’s possible, than we do. You’ll notice, Joe didn’t make positive signs about compromise for George Floyd policing bill, or the voter protection bill. Those are clearly DOA without nuking the filibuster. Which is the real key. What does it take to convince Manchin that filibuster has to go?. Or perhaps maybe a better way of looking at is what does the GOP have to do to convince Manchin to not nuke it. If the GOP allows the infrastructure bill to pass, then Joe Manchin can say, see I told you bipartisanship is alive or well. So Mitch might allow the GOP to support the bill if it keeps the filibuster alive.

2811

The Infrastructure bill is going through reconciliation so it’s not subject to the filibuster.

2812

He’s the raid tank for the Senate GOP, the only pressure he might feel is from the donor class. As @Sharpe’s awesome post outlines, Republicans are not rational actors. They have never been politically harmed by obstructing Democratic legislation or in fact for not doing anything at all. The only directive from their voters is to own the libs, whatever the cost.

He and Sinema are not alone, there’s something like ten Dem’s that oppose removing the filibuster. That said if Manchin changes his mind, the rest will (likely) follow. In any case he won’t vote to remove it but he might be convinced to reform it. That’s the thin hope we’re left with.

It’s hard to parse that (arguably) the fate of our democracy is up to one West Virginia Senator. That’s just this side of insane.

edit: Oh hey, an excuse to post this clip.
edit edit:
By the way, that’s a black bear. It’s just brown. If that had been an actual brown bear this story has a different outcome.

(Here’s the deleted tweet he’s referring to):

2813

The fact that it can be passed through reconciliation, is big factor in the calculus on why Mitch hasn’t said they want to kill it.
Manchin and Biden have both said they want it to be a bipartisan bill. That’s why they are still negotiating.
If the Democrats don’t negotiate there is a good chance they lose Manchin in which case the Democrats get nothing and the Republican’s win. Killing one of Biden’s main campaign promises.
If the Republican don’t negotiate Manchin will likely agree to pass it through reconciliation. Corporate tax rates go up pissing off the only reason corporate America still supports the increasingly crazy Republicans.
The bill enjoys widespread by the America people even among Republicans, Democrats getting 100% of the credit for the bill is really bad for Republicans.
There is benefit to both sides to compromise, because if they don’t the all powerful Joe Manchin may decide you aren’t being sufficiently bipartisan and give his support to the other side. Hence, a
compromise bill is the best solution.

Everyone involved has analyzed the hell out of this, and game theory says both sides benefit if at least modest size infrastructure bill is passed. In general, Republican aren’t rational, but the folks doing the negotiation are.

Edit great clip.

2814

Impressive unarmed bear combat.

2815

Going by the Covid relief bill the GOP may also be thinking they don’t have that much to lose by negotiating in bad faith. So what if it gets passed through reconciliation? Do the Democrats get all the credit? Not in the GOP voter’s world since the Representatives and Senators will happily claim the positives of the bill they voted against while railing against anything they view is wrong. They get the best of both worlds, really.

Sure, Democrats and many Independents may see through the BS and credit the Democrats for an accomplishment. However, it doesn’t seem the GOP cares a whit about either of those groups any longer despite the reality that losses among the latter is what has painted them into an increasingly difficult position.

2816

“Hey, I’m going to the Bear Pits tomorrow. Ya wanna come with?”

2817

Well this is a terrible idea. Biden is going to compromise so much that it ends up being seen as capitulation to Republicans, and then they’re going to filibuster it anyway.

2818

I feel like we’re trapped in the groove of a skipping record. Remember when Obama nearly gave the whole farm to Boehner and we all breathed a sigh of relief when Republicans were too stupid to take the deal?

2819

He’s negotiating against himself. Just pass the damn bill.

2820

Goddammit Biden, did you learn nothing from the health care reform negotiations??