2861

Then please explain HB941, HB1318, SB937,HB1651, HB335 and a dozen other pieces of legislation passed by both the Senate and House on bipartisan basis and signed into law this Congress.

2862

No one thinks these are significant victories for Biden, and there is no meaningful way for the dems to campaign on these.

For the record:

  • HR 941 is reauthorization of the Stem Cell and Therapeutic Research Act. Before anyone gets excited, this is limited to cord blood stem cells, not fetal, so there is no Republican compromise here.

  • HR 1318 is the Alaska Tourism restoration act, which allows foreign cruise ships to transport people between Washington State and Alaska.

  • HR 1651 extend existing COVID-19 bankruptcy relief, which excluded certain COVID aid payments from income.

  • HR 335 made an exception to allow appointment of a person who was in active duty military within the last four years as Secretary of Defense.

  • S 937 was Masie Hironoā€™s hate crime bill, which does next to nothing (promulgates some guidance to states and requires some reporting), and passed in the wake of an anti-Asian hate crime.

None of these are remotely similar to a massive infrastructure package that was a major Biden campaign promise and agenda item. Do you really think Republicans being willing to work on (an extremely short) Alaskan tourism bill or allowing the appointment of a General to run the DoD tells us anything about their willingness to advance major Biden agenda items?

2863

Also, 283 bills passed House and Senate in 2011-2012, but that isnā€™t evidence of Republicans compromising to provide bipartisan support to Obamaā€™s agenda. 283 bills was the least passed by a Congress since modern record keeping began (in 1947), and it wasnā€™t even close. The next fewest was 906 bills.

Congress passed a few dozen laws is a lousy basis for establishing good faith bipartisanship.

2864

Based on those numbers, the average Congress passes north of a thousand bills per session of 730 days. Letā€™s call it 1.5 bills a day. So we are now at day 135 of Bidenā€™s Presidency and we would expect about 195-200 bills. Instead we have 6 (counting the COVID relief passed with 0 GOP votes). Even if we adjust that 200 bill number down to reflect a new session getting started, we adjust it down what, 20%? 30%? Letā€™s go crazy and norm it down by 50%. That means weā€™d expect at least 100 bills and we haveā€¦ 6.

So yeah, the GOP is not operating as per usual. They are blocking with great vehemence. Thatā€™s just the reality.

2865

It isnā€™t all that bad. We actually have 15! Just need to pass another 485 bills in the next ~six months to catch up to pre-2011 historical standards. Iā€™m sure Republicans will come around any day now. /s

2866

The vaccine rollout/distribution has been phenomenal, weā€™ve gone from one of the worst countries dealing with Covid to the exact opposite. Imagine how this would have gone with the trump regime?

On the other hand and off the top of my head:

  • Continuation of trumpā€™s Cuba policy
  • Increased funding for nuclear arsenal ā€œmodernizationā€ from trump levels.
  • Expansion of oil drilling in Alaska (petroleum reserve, not the Arctic refuge.)
  • Demanding visa applicants hand over their social media account identity.
  • Not rejoining the Open Skies treaty.
  • DoJ appealing judge decision to release Barr memo on obstruction of justice against trump.
  • DoJ asking to dismiss a lawsuit against trump/trump administration for firing tear gas on peaceful protesters.
  • Resistance to turning over documents requested by House committees
  • $785 billion defense budget

IOW, business as usual: Republicans never held to account for their corruption and/or possible criminal behavior and yet more expansion for the power of the executive branch.

As far as the infrastructure bill goes, that report card by the American Civil engineers shows a 2.5 trillion investment this decade to repair everything that ails our infrastructure and the $1 trillion is woefully inadequate (thatā€™s the price of neglect and the past due amount is just going to keep rising.)

Note, the House progressive caucus numbers 100, so even if a number of House Republicans vote in this theoretical show of bipartisanship, a Senate bill that watered down is all-but DOA in the House.

Of course, the WH negotiations might very well be kabuki theater for Manchinā€™s benefit, in which case mea culpa.

2867

No question that Mitch has shut the Senate output down to trickle, but he also vowed 100% effort to stop Obama. He didnā€™t actually achieve 100% shutdown of Senate in during Obama presidency. A small number of bills got through including things like budgets and modest expansion to the safety net. In this session there are scores of bill the House has passed that Mitch has said are DOA in the senate. Neither, I nor Biden are saying we are going to see voting rights get passed for instance. The infrastructure bill is the notable exception. Mitch at first said heā€™d support $600 billion and appointed Senator Capito to negotiate. Republicans are now at $928 billion so not a huge leap to get to a trillionā€¦

Mr Grumpy may be right progressive House Democrats may reject it, which would be said because $1 trillion worth of infrastructure would be really good for the country, and the ROI on infrastructure is so good, that I doesnā€™t even bother me to finance with 10 year and 30 years bonds.

The reality is that any deal with Republican is by necessity going to require more compromise than Democrat like. For the simple reason that conservative by definition win by keeping the status quo and progressive donā€™t. Given the huge number of crazy in the Republican, it is only going to get worse.

But what choice does Biden have? I guess it never to late learn golf, but I for one Iā€™m happy he is plugging a way.

2868

Well, weā€™re already going to spend about $700 billion over the next decade in previously authorized funds plus projected budgets for the DOT etc. Which means the GOPā€™s ā€œ$950 billionā€ offer is only $250 billion in new money. Biden was initially asking for $1.9 trillion in new money, so a compromise would be in the range of $1 trillion new money as you suggest. However, the GOP is NOT offering that, they are only offering one quarter of that, and there is no commitment they will even vote for that.

Look in the big picture, Schumerā€™s plan is to force a number of bills to a vote this month and if the GOP continues to filibuster everything significant, for Schumer to try to get Manchin to a ā€œfish or cut baitā€ moment later this month. Weā€™ll see if that works.

Basically, either Manchin, Sinema and the rest of the weak-kneed Dems toughen up and we get infrastructure of $1 trillion new money or more, or we end with something between 0 and $300 billion. I mean, if its the only vote we can pass, Iā€™ll take the $300 billion, but donā€™t get misled by the GOP. They are NOT offering $950 billion in new infrastructure investment. The parties are NOT close.

I guess if you honestly though the GOP was offering $950 billion new money in response to Bidenā€™s $1.9 trillion original proposal, I could see why you thought a deal was close and possible. But itā€™s not.

Edit: the yearly DOT budget is $72.4 billion right now, and although not all of that goes for infrastructure a fair chunk does, something like 600-700 billion (adjusted for inflation) over the next 10 years. The GOP is counting that money as part of their package, which IMO is deceptive and manipulative. This entire debate has always been about new infrastructure money including both investment in new construction and increased money for maintaining and repairing old infrastructure.

2869

And of course, while weā€™re arguing if the infrastructure bill should be $250 million, $1 trillion, or $4 trillion, the Republicans across the country are passing laws to prevent minorities and poor people from voting, and weā€™re doing exactly zero about that.

2870

I got no comfort food - Biden is failure! Burn it all down!

2871

Tens of furrowed brows feel deeply wounded by your ignoring them.

2872

Manchin is not on board, but I have a hard time believing he actually believes this bullshit.

2873

Well, thatā€™s the dumbest thing Iā€™ve read today. ā€œWe canā€™t protect voting rights unless the people attacking voting rights decide to protect voting rights.ā€

2874

You kayfabe long enough and you have a tendency to start to believing your own bullshit.

People keep telling me Manchin is in a difficult position and I just need to understand harder, but the more he opens his mouth the more I become convinced he either a) wants the GOP in control, or b) is a moron, or c) in cognitive decline.

2875

I think the only reason he doesnā€™t switch parties is that he couldnā€™t win a Republic primary. But heā€™s left Democrats with no leverage - and I believe heā€™s done that on purpose. Why I don 't know but if I had to hazard a guess it would be for the usual reasons: money and influence. (Now itā€™s also quite likely the filibuster remains regardless since there appears to be a number of Dems who want to keep it.)

I donā€™t know, but the whole situation feels incredibly dispiriting.

Edit:

(Donā€™t know what Meyer is referring to.,)

2876

Whatā€™s sadly hilarious about this is that Manchin is correct about partisan voting legislation destroying the already weakening binds of our democracy but the partisan voting legislation that he should be focused on is the GOP legislation in numerous states: GA, TX, FL, etc. He just doesnā€™t get it. And I mean that. I used to think Manchin was all about triangulation and calculation and now thereā€™s a whole pattern of things that make me think heā€™s more intellectually confused than anything. I think heā€™s a charismatic pol, good at retail politics, which is why heā€™s managed to win, but actually in terms of serious policy or complex abstract understanding, heā€™s just not that sophisticated.

2877

Or the Koch brothers paid him off. Occams Razor.

2878

Itā€™s probably going to take some Dem president going rogue at some point and daring Congress to impeach them to stop this.

Biden wonā€™t be that president, he believes too much in rule of current law.

2879

Manchin won by the ā€œslimmest margin everā€ (WSJ) in a state that went 70% for Donald Trump, that has every House member seated for the GOP, and should have two GOP senators. He knows this. His triangulation and calculation is how to preserve his seat and represent his state. And the majority of voters in his state think everything the GOP is doing and will do to suppress voters is correct because the GOP calls it ā€œdefending the voteā€ and think that everything the Democratic party will do to preserve the vote is actually cheating. This is exactly the language his statement used - that itā€™s the Democrats being partisan, which is how the Fox News electorate he represents sees the world.

Manchin is the most important person in the world right now - if he flips to the GOP, which he really ought to do, he becomes just another GOP apparachik. Itā€™s the most influential heā€™s ever been and ever will be. And heā€™s going to use that voice to stop ā€œpartisan politicsā€ because thatā€™s how the conservative voters he represents think thatā€™s all that Democrats do.

Manchin isnā€™t the hero liberal Democrats are looking for. Heā€™s a guy that canā€™t switch parties without losing and managed by pure luck of the dice to land himself in a government flipping position. Heā€™s not going to sink his career at the last minute to ā€œsaveā€ Democracy or whatever people think he should do. Heā€™s going to play along with the Democrats because it gives him more leverage than he could otherwise possibly imagine - and since the GOP will just vote as a block no matter the circumstances against everything the Democratic party does, his only avenue of action is grappling against his own party.

2880

Basically this all boils down to the Dems are going to have to win in 2022 without a big physical infrastructure boost to the economy, without voting rights protections, without DC as a state, without a care infrastructure package at all, without Supreme Court reform, without gerrymandering reform, and in the face of a major risk of GOP legislatures overruling voters.

Iā€™m too much of a fighter to say weā€™re DOMED, but there are huge challenges.

On the other hand, think about the challenges the GOP faces. Trump is a demonstrable idiot who appeals massively to the right wing base but does in fact turn off other voters. Some GOP vote-cheating is going to be too subtle for most voters, but some (like blatantly overturning elections) is going to garner some pushback (although quite possibly too late to matter). The Supreme Court is likely to put out some pretty unpopular decisions in the next 18 months (curtailing Roe is going to have repercussions). The continued fixation on voter fraud helps the GOP perpetuate cheating but it also turns off some voters. Also, the assumption of a mid-term bounce for the GOP is based on old models of a voter enthusiasm gap re: turnout, and I am not convinced those models are valid in the current cycle.

Basically, things are pretty Fā€™ed up, but itā€™s going to be a fight. A lot of us, after the hard fought wins for the Presidency and the Senate and the early success of the COVID relief bill, were feeling very optimistic. That was VERY premature. However, itā€™s also premature IMO to go all in on pessimism.

Basically, due to Manchin and other facts, Biden & the Dems have basically already done most of the good they can this term of Congress. We will probably get a tiny infrastructure bill in the ballpark of 10%-15% of the new spending Biden originally asked for (in other words $230 billion to $350 billion instead of the $2.3 trillion originally proposed), and thatā€™s basically it. Biden got a solid COVID bill to the tune of $1.9 trillion early and got most of his cabinet team in place. He will probably get another very small infrastructure bill, and then itā€™s basically all 2022 elections all the time.

Thatā€™s the reality. It sucks and there are massive negatives heading our way but the GOP doesnā€™t hold every card and their own extremism and idiocy may well cause problems for themselves.

Given the potential optimism I was feeling in February, itā€™s a huge disappointment but I got ahead of myself. I think as a board, we all got ahead of ourselves a bit.