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3243
Ramming through a watered-down bill that was negotiated with Republicans is no way to use reconciliation or abolishing the filibuster. If you’re going to go nuclear, make it a huge partisan bill.
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3244
Yes, the GOP has essentially made itself into a party which precludes being responsible adults.
The Democrats, if they can brand themselves as the responsible adults, that can work… and it’s harder than being tantrum throwing idiots like the modern GOP. It can be frustrating, and lead to folks saying, “Why do WE have to be the responsible adults, while the GOP is just throwing tantrums?”
The answer is because it’s harder to build shit then tear it down. The GOP just wants to tear stuff down and stop progress. They can win just by forcing everything to grind to a halt.
People are sick of that crap though. If the Democrats can get anything done, they can pick up the mantle of past Democratic icons who were known for getting a ton of shit done… And Americans LIKE getting shit done. We do. This is even well documented in various sociological texts that I’ve dealt with in terms of dealing with inter-cultural relations for military training. Americans are, inherently, very focused on action and results. If you get stuff done, that can get you votes.
It’ll become a battle between the Dems’ message of “Get shit done” and the GOP’s message of “Be afraid of everything.”
I think the Dems will win that battle… but they need to prove that they can get shit done, because people widely believe that government can’t get anything done.
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3245
no, I meant ramming through his original $1.9 trillion bill.
The younger crowd right now thinks government is the only way to get things done , because they think capitalism has failed. They’re going to be a majority soon.
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3247
Ya, well young people don’t vote, so ya gotta get more than them.
Yes, and soccer is going to be the biggest sport in the United States by 1980, just look at all the kids who play it! They’re going to be…
There’s this weird phenomenon that has been studied and verified over and over and over again: an awful lot (not all, but a lot) of young people tend to become a lot less strident or at least populate the far ends of a political spectrum in their worldview as they get older. :)
A not-insignificant number of folks with strong leftist views in the late 1960s ended up voting for Ronald Reagan. The number of folks between the ages of 35 and 45 in 1984 who voted for McGovern in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in '84 is a very real data point.
In any event, it’ll suck if this is all the environmental action – whether by legislation or executive order, or whatever – we get out of Biden. I don’t think it will be, but I get the unease of having to take that on faith here.
The only thing that makes this bill worth it is that Manchin has said he’ll vote for a more expansive reconciliation bill. Pelosi has already stated the House is only going to vote on both bills (this and reconciliation, which I gather is going to be a complicated process.) [Keep in mind, unless Manchin makes some effort on filibuster reform they still need five more Republican votes . ← I think this might be wrong.]
Here’s what’s in the announced deal. Notice the pay-fors.
There’s a tiny bit of woefully inadequate climate stuff in here. Again though if it opens the door for a more aggressive actions in the reconciliation bill then it’s worth it.
Edit: More on Pelosi
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made clear on Thursday that Congress will not let Republicans yank a bipartisan infrastructure bill away at the last minute.
She told reporters that the House would not take up a bipartisan infrastructure bill until the Senate also passes a reconciliation bill.
“We will not take up a bill in the House until the Senate passes the bipartisan bill and a reconciliation bill,” Pelosi said.
That was true in the past, but millenials are getting more radical, not less- and in both directions, though much more to the left.
A big difference between now and then is folks 35-45 are collectively a lot worse off than they were in 1980.
I’m not sure I’m going to take this particular set of varied Alstein Data on faith. Mostly because, I don’t think your first postulation is supported by available evidence, and I think your second postulate isn’t a correct comparison.
Also Biden himself:
“If this is the only bill that comes to my desk, I won’t sign it.” (Meaning the bipartisan bill.)
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3254
The economy was totally fucked in 1980, dude. That’s when we had stagflation. Things were not good for anyone right then.
The basic reason the US won the Cold War was that it discovered that debt doesn’t matter. The Reagan boom was built on finance and debt. The Soviets… don’t have debt.
LOL. It may not be the case, but it surely has the appearance of the Dems absolutely hornswaggling (a technical term I am VERY acquainted with from a n early age) the Republicans on this. “Hey, let’s do a bipartisan agreement. Great. We’re going with a reconciliation bill too. See you in the funny papers.”
Menzo
3257
What stops McConnell from saying “we would have voted on the bipartisan bill, but now that we know Dems are going to jam us on reconciliation that’s off the table”?
We had high inflation in 1980, true, but when Reagan came in Paul Volker hiked interest rates to the sky and gave us double-digit unemployment around 82-3 as I recall. Things were coming back in 1984*, and inflation was essentially licked, but at a high cost. I was in college in those bad years and getting a summer job was almost impossible. Luckily my folks were very understanding.
*No doubt helped by the massive increase in the federal deficit and debt, despite Ronald Reagan’s moral panic about a measly 60 billion federal deficit in Carter’s last budget.
Good grief. The success of my entire career is largely based on the fact that I entered it in the eighties, when the demand for particular capabilities and skills was such that anyone who had them could succeed, regardless of educational attainment or experience.
I’m sure young people today would kill for that opportunity.
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3260
Dude, in 1980, the prime rate was already 15.25%. And that was while we were already having 8% unemployment. Inflation was at 13.5%.
That was before Reagan even came into office.
The economy in 1980 was fucked in a way that contemporary economists of the time had previously thought wasn’t even possible.
Yeah, and unemployment went to about 12-13% in the first couple of years of the Reagan Administration. I’m not saying it was perfect under Carter (he wouldn’t have lost if it had been), but unemployment got way worse.
I hope this is the case. Would require all 50 to be on board, and you can never trust the moderate and the loon.
Something is better than nothing though, and nothing says you can’t fight again on this later- it’s a winner. Folks like infrastructure, not as much as folks like free money, but infrastructure’s still good.
In 1980 young folks had hope things would get better. Today they don’t.
