I think they mean it in the sense that if the legislation isn’t passed soon it’s going to be harder to do it later and impossible if (which seems likely) the GOP regains the House next year. They bounce around numbers but seem pretty convinced a) that a reconciliation package will be smaller than $3.5t and b) that at least Manchin seems gettable. They are all befuddled by Sinema.
Timex
4472
You need to get shit done TODAY dude. Not at some indeterminable point in the future.
You need to get this stuff done, so that it has time to impact the lives of Americans, so you can then get them to vote for you.
I mean, this ignores the realities of our fucked up Congress. As long as there is a filibuster, Dems only get to pass things once per year via reconciliation. And historically the incumbent party takes a shellacking in the midterms, which means there are good odds that the Dem’s lose their majority in the House or Senate.
As long as those two things hold true, then yes this is the Dem’s last chance to pass legislation for a number of years.
I think Medicaid was more than $600 billion just last year, wasn’t it? And Medicare was $800 billion. That’s a lot of money since 1965.
That number of years being…1? 2? 3? 4?
We just spend 4 years passing nothing progressive at all, didn’t we?
Specifically with regard to climate, 4 years is a pretty big deal.
Sure, but if Joe Manchin isn’t having any climate change legislation (who knows?), throwing away what he will have instead doesn’t make that much sense to me.
If Manchin literally means to block all climate change legislation, not just negotiate for some WV pork, then I’ll just leave this here.
Papageno
4479
Again, that only works if voters get to choose their politicians and not vice versa.
Again, if your objection is that Dems get only one shot and then it’s forever Republican rule, what actual difference does this one bill make anyway? It will immediately be gutted, right?
I don’t understand this sort of response to any discussion of strategy here.
Strollen
4481
What’s wrong with helping destitute people? They are the group most in need.
The ACA subsidy phase out 400% of the poverty line, about 100K for a family of 4. Most of the child care, child tax, elder care etc., free tuition at community colleges that are being talked about go up to the 200K-400K. That’s way too high.
You can’t make it by just taxing those over $400K, there just isn’t enough money. So you’ll end up raising taxes on those making more than 100K, but with out kids etc.
There is also an issue with loss aversion.
Say you were offered a coin flip for a substantial amount of money say 25% of your income. How much would you have to win to take the coin flip? It is certainly not 25%. Most studies have shown that people would need twice as much to take the gamble. This implies that if the free community college would save $4,000 per year, taxes can go up no more than $2,000 to make people feel they are getting a fair deal.
Strollen
4482
Really, I think preventing people from being evicted for not paying rent is pretty progressive. Likewise making unemployment pay more than working for many low wage earners is also pretty progressive as is giving most thousands of dollars to deal with pandemic.
Alstein
4483
There’s also the message that if you shoot down an important bill. The next time negotiation comes up, you can make higher demands because folks know you’re willing to shoot down a deal.
If thsi bill gets show down, Dems still have 2 reconciliations, and a year before the midterms.
Greg Sargent’s (of WaPo) view:
Papageno
4486
My point is that this is a unique opportunity. Even if the Republicans take both houses in 2022, Biden is still there to veto any gutting of whatever gets passed into law here, just as Obama was there to stop the ACA from being repealed and “replaced” HAHAHAHA. If something adequate that actually helps a lot of people gets passed, it’ll become popular enough that enough voters will think twice about voting for Trumpist/Tea Party fatheads in the next couple of critical elections.
BUT, who knows whether, given what the GOP legislatures are doing in their states to “combat voter fraud,” we’re ever going to have a Democrat in the White House from early 2025 on out, given the EC and how subject it is to sabotage at the state level given the language of the Constitution.
EDIT: As far as the current impasse goes, I’m generally also in the “take the win” camp that Timex is in (if Manchin and Sinema and everyone else get on board). On the other hand I wonder if it’s too late for that to do enough good for enough people for it to help lead to even better things later.
Papageno
4489
Of course I have no problem with the government helping the destitute. The problem with American welfare systems has often been that they are inadequate and only help the destitute, and leave the people barely scraping by out in the cold. Thanks to late capitalism and public policy wrt to unions/union busting, binding arbitration instead of class action suits, minimum wage etc. over the last forty years or so, ever more people are just scraping by. They should get help too.
Maybe 200-400k is way too high for the subsidies you mention, but I imagine they start phasing out well below that level in any proposal. I agree that in most of these proposals the income thresholds before higher marginal income tax rates kick in is too high, at least in most cities.* Still, families with kids (and I never had any) should be given a break, which is why I support the expanded CTC.
*this does not mean, however, that people who really rake in the dough, who bring in a million or more per year, or multiple millions, shouldn’t have their affairs subject to more scrutiny and shouldn’t pay higher effective rates than they are now. For that the IRS needs to be expanded and adequately funded.
Houngan
4490
The remarkable thing is always how tiny a fraction of the pie is actually running the country. Medicare/Medicaid, the Military, Social Security, and debt service utterly dominate our spending:
Forgive for going back to 2015, but honestly it was one of the last reasonable years without Trump effects and post-2008.
RichVR
4491
Is this what you wanted, @Dave_Perkins ?
