4694

No, it would make more sense for it to expire sooner.

It reduces the perceived cost by more, and then it can benefit you in midterm elections.

4695

I guess I’m just jaded, every year there’s a Democrat president, there’s a debt ceiling crisis. It seems like the highest form and the most obvious of political theater, until of course the brinksmen actually step over the cliff. Fuck I’m tired.

Fun anecdote though, my father (GOP through and through) was a banker so isn’t an idiot about Fed rates and whatnot, he went on a small tear about having to increase the interest rate recently and how it needed to be done, etc. etc. I asked him, “Then why didn’t Trump do it during his great economy?” And briefly went over quantitative easing, 2008 onward, etc. Completely stumped him like never before. He literally said, “Huh, I’m going to have to think about that a bit, then I’ll have an answer.” My mom cackled.

4696

FWIW, the President doesn’t control the Federal Reserve and can’t dictate how or when they raise or lower the federal funds rate.

In fact, the Fed did increase interest rates during Trump’s Presidency, much to his dismay.

4697

Oh I know, but only a tiny bit, and we’ve needed to rebuild the reservoir of quantitative easing since 2008 much more. That Trump hated it just means it’s a good thing.

4698

Looks like some more gerrymandering news for Dems

They are likely to gain a seat in NM, as NM has decided to gerrymander. Also apparently Republicans in IA are going to accept the redistricting commission there, because they like the state legislative map, but I think it also gives the Dems another seat.

4699

Dammit, Manchin! (I actually can’t believe that I am the least bit surprised, but I am.)

4700

The thing is, Manchin isn’t going to torpedo the debt limit increase, so he’s going to have to decide which way he’s willing to pass it.

4701

Not sure if this is real or what it means. ‘Expedited reconciliation process’ would be McConnell’s dream, squandering the Dems shot at a BBB reconciliation bill.

4702

I don’t think even Sinema would let the government torpedo. The progressive caucus is betting on this. They’re willing to negotiate on the amount- which seems to be finalizing around $2T. But they want to establish the precedent as well, and filibuster abolishing serves them well.

4703

God do I wish the President would just declare the debt ceiling to be bullshit and be done with that particular nonsense. Just pay on time as agreed, as the “shall not be questioned” language pretty much implies, and let the Supremes sort it out.

4704

Me, too, but I don’t actually know how hard this would be to do. The government would have to go on issuing debt in order to raise funds to pay things; and they’d be trying to issue debt that at least some people question the legitimacy of. What will a future court say about the viability of these treasury notes? Given that, would there be any takers, outside (maybe) the Fed? There’s no real way to know how this plays out until you’re in that predicament.

4705

There’s always demand for US debt, because it’s literally the only game in town that won’t ever break the buck (unless brain-dead Freedom Caucus bozos are in charge and decide to shoot the US in the head for shits and giggles), and companies/institutions/governments, not to mention banks, have US dollars to park there. Sure, people can choose more risky options for savings, but whoever ends up with the dollars doesn’t stuff them under their mattress, and there are reserve requirements, so eventually the net savings of the world in US dollars ends up in US debt instruments.

You really think the Supreme Court is going to plunge the US and world economies into (even temporary) chaos by questioning US-issued debt, especially when the plain language of the Constitution gives them an easy out? Talk about a self-inflicted wound (for the country and the Court). I suppose anything is possible but these are not dumb people.

This is why it frustrates the F*CK out of me when I hear the media reporting it as “if a debt ceiling increase isn’t approved by [$date], the federal government will run out of money.” I yell at the damn radio, “NO you idiots. It’ll run out of legal authority to issue further debt instruments, and said legal authority is probably unconstitutional to begin with, especially when political parties are happy to use it as an extortion mechanism.”

Or, OR, do the trillion dollar platinum coin thing and tell McConnell and co. to go fuck themselves with their clever, bad-faith “compromises.”

4706

I don’t know. That’s what this means:

It’s all uncharted territory. Count me as on board with the admin saying fuck the debt ceiling, I suggested the idea up there ☝️, but it will hardly be smooth sailing even if they do.

I mean, the very first thing that happens is Ted Cruz runs to a federal court to try to get an injunction blocking the government from issuing new debt. I have no idea what that federal court will do.

4707

It’s all about raising the stakes with a ticking-clock countdown element to build drama and crank up the suspense. Screenwriting 101.

4708

I mean, if this is a ticking clock scenario, can we water board McConnell?

4709

This sort of thing makes it clear Manchin wants some kind of BBB reconciliation bill.

4710

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4711

McConnell is truly a great, giving man. Note how it seems like he’s running the Senate now, since he’s the one who gets to decide what bills get voted on.

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4712

McConnell’s actual statement:

I don’t know why some people are characterizing this as him blinking. He’s offering:

  • Dems can abandon their legislative plans in which case we will help them raise the debt ceiling in regular order, or
  • Dems can waste their resolution shot on a clean debt ceiling increase done through reconciliation, which we won’t impede if it includes nothing else, or
  • Dems can have some more time to try to do both their legislation and a debt ceiling increase, but we will fucking impede the hell out of it

I guess it is a tiny bit of a give, that last bit, but really…

4713