The Biden Presidency is underway.

Menzo · 2021-10-27T16:38:43.685Z

KevinC:

Okay, cool, so no bill passes. Now what?

Democrats lose the House and Senate in 2022, which I guess is the goal of both the progressive caucus and Manchin/Sinema. Definitely worth sending a message.

Alstein · 2021-10-27T16:39:58.556Z

I’d argue it’s not their goal, but the left would probably view the situation as similar, they’re out of power either way, and odds are they’d be able to seize the gavel in a shrunken Dem caucus in 2022, and do more if/when they get the House again (that’s the risky part)

The progressive caucus remembers the ACA, thinks they get one bite at the apple, they’re going to do whatever they can to make it good.

Calelari · 2021-10-27T16:40:14.721Z

Menzo:

Democrats lose the House and Senate in 2022

This is, on balance, the likely outcome regardless of the fate of the current bills. The brilliance of the Founders goes ever on.

KevinC · 2021-10-27T16:43:35.487Z

I mean, if the Democrats can’t govern despite having the Presidency, House, and (barely, sort of) the Senate, they probably deserve to be thrown out on their asses. Unfortunately for us, the party waiting in the wings are fascist authoritarians who are out to destroy democracy in this country.

Enidigm · 2021-10-27T16:46:07.124Z

It’s pretty easy to govern as the GOP when 99% of their elected party agree that FUCK YOU is a coherent platform they can get behind. A lot easier than trying actual governing the plate of spaghetti that is the mess left when trying to unite from everybody else into a single party.

I do think this moment of “demographic transition” is going to be way harder politically than liberal observers want to understand. At best it’s going to look like decades of total stagnation and spending all effort on retaking ground lost in never ending culture wars.

KevinC · 2021-10-27T16:48:13.786Z

Definitely. The GOP has a huge advantage when it comes to that sort of thing. When the GOP controls the Senate 50/50 it means something very different than when the Democrats do, because they’re a homogenous bloc that votes in lockstep.

The Democrats do have control here though and can pass a bill. It might not be the bill we want, but to pass nothing I don’t think is acceptable.

strummer · 2021-10-27T16:48:36.957Z

KevinC:

I mean, if the Democrats can’t govern despite having the Presidency, House, and (barely, sort of) the Senate, they probably deserve to be thrown out on their asses.

I’m sure that is just frustration talking, because the situation really isn’t due to their inability to govern, it is due to a combination of legislative rules, not having a literal or practical majority in the Senate and co-existing with the modern Republican party.

inactive_user · 2021-10-27T16:51:46.860Z

Petition to merge the GOP into a homogenous block, like, on a molecular level.

Enidigm · 2021-10-27T16:52:10.111Z

There’s also just the issue that as a non-parliamentary system minority groups within parties are almost taken for hostage as much ad they would be out of power. There’s very little path for minority opinions and groups to have any influence at all from a minority position. If they leave the party, they get nothing. If they don’t support the party, they lose everything. So they have to vote the party line and be told every time that maybe next time around their issue will, perhaps, get addressed.

KevinC · 2021-10-27T16:52:20.670Z

Lets do it!! Does the White House still have those petitions people can create?

Enidigm · 2021-10-27T16:52:47.114Z

So you’re saying we need to blood test the GOP?

inactive_user · 2021-10-27T16:53:36.245Z

138 · 2021-10-27T17:13:50.011Z

Alstein:

KevinC:

Say it like Cyndi Lauper!

Unfortunately for them (and us), they don’t have the leverage.

They do have leverage, neither bill passes without their support. They have the same leverage as Sinema or Manchin.

Why are folks ok with the moderate and the loon blowing everything up, but clutching pearls at the left using the same tactics, and having shown they’re willing to compromise several times, unlike those two? It’s utterly hypocritical.

I’m not OK with any of what’s going on, but I feel that at least Manchin is (finally) making demands, being vocal about what he doesn’t like, etc. Meaning, he at least seems to be negotiating in good faith on one bill, having already given his vote to a second. (Please don’t take this as any kind of approval of his methods or his madness). But all I’m getting now from Progressive Caucus is their willingness to blow up two bills at the same time, because one bill isn’t getting the attention that they want it to. And there’s no guarantee that we’ll have their votes on either bill if the caucus decides that they’ve conceded too much in the Reconciliation Bill.

This whole “passing both bills together” bullshit has created more problems than it was trying to solve. And it makes the Dems look like a bunch of petulant children on both ends, with some rational folks in between.

Sharpe · 2021-10-27T17:15:37.136Z

138, what do you think happens to the reconciliation bill once the bipartisan bill is passed separately?

138 · 2021-10-27T17:21:04.556Z

Sharpe:

138, what do you think happens to the reconciliation bill once the bipartisan bill is passed separately?

I don’t know. What happens to the infrastructure bill once the reconciliation bill is passed?

Look, I get it. I understand the leverage that the Progressives are trying to use here. But what happens if at the end of the day Sinema decides, “Nah.” And there is no more negotiation. Bupkes. Then we’re going to nix both bills? That’s ridiculous and that’s why I’m against this whole “two things at once” scenario.

And let’s be aware of this situation:

NPR.org

Transportation planners wait for money as the infrastructure plan stalls in...

Democrats say they're close to a deal on the broad reconciliation bill, but transportation planners are anxious because a short-term extension on federal highway and transit programs runs out Sunday.

(again, not a good look for Democrats)

138 · 2021-10-27T17:27:23.581Z

138:

And there’s no guarantee that we’ll have their votes on either bill if the caucus decides that they’ve conceded too much in the Reconciliation Bill.

Sorry to quote myself, but it sounds like there’s some grumbling about this very thing. So now what?

twitter.com

Julie Tsirkin

@JulieNBCNews

I asked @SenSanders if there will be an agreement on the reconciliation package today or a vote on BIF this week. “I don’t think so… Every sensible revenue option seems to be destroyed.” He said every “progressive” option has been “sabotaged.”

3:56 PM - 27 Oct 2021 110 51

Alstein · 2021-10-27T17:32:22.800Z

We know exactly what happens, so do the progressives, so they made this demand in order to get something they feel is necessary, and for them, that is more important than infrastructure.

Sharpe · 2021-10-27T17:33:36.710Z

138:

I don’t know. What happens to the infrastructure bill once the reconciliation bill is passed?

What are you implying? Are you implying equivalence?

138 · 2021-10-27T17:36:42.566Z

Sharpe:

138:

I don’t know. What happens to the infrastructure bill once the reconciliation bill is passed?

What are you implying? Are you implying equivalence?

I was implying that there’s no reason to trust that the progressive caucus will vote for infrastructure – especially if the reconciliation bill gets whittled down to shit, as is happening as we speak.

138 · 2021-10-27T17:40:06.073Z

And I just want to say that I agree with everything that was in the original Reconciliation Bill. All of it. And it sucks that we don’t have the votes to pass it through unaltered. But this is the reality we’re living in right now, and it makes the Democrats look like a bunch of infighting chumps when we’ve got one bill that will tremendously help Americans ready to go RIGHT NOW, and we’re leaving it on the sidelines until we play chicken long enough to decide that we can maybe pass both but hopefully at least the one that’s ready to go.