4917

The difference being that the progressive caucus actually wants the things in the infrastructure bill while Manchin and Sinema are actively trying to kill most if not all of the second bill.

4918

But will they let infrastructure die if Manchin and Sinema gut the progressive bill? I mean, it’s pretty much gutted now. Will they let infrastructure die if Manchin or Sinema walks? That’s what I’m worried about.

4919

So they’d vote for a compromise second bill but vote against the first out of spite?

4920

I honestly believe that’s possible, yes.

4921

Why?

I mean, I’ll take “Because we live in absurdist reality where I can no longer discount even what I once would have imagined was ridiculous.” but is there some specific things that make you believe this is possible? Something in the character of the leadership or members?

4922

Because I think some of the Progressives would rather save face with the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party than to vote for the Bipartisan Bill if Reconciliation either tanks or gets gutted. I think they’d hope for GOP House votes to make up the difference.

4923

How would spitefully killing infrastructure “save face”? Who exactly would appreciate such a move?

4924

I think it’s far more likely that the progressives are just using the leverage they have to get the best deal possible, but they all intend to show up and vote for whatever hits the table. Their messaging will be something like “It didn’t get everything we need, but we did get X, Y, and Z, and that’s going to help working families, etc etc.”

They’re principled. Part of being principled means fighting like hell and refusing to compromise on what you know is right. But another part of being principled means knowing when you have the best deal you’re going to get and taking it.

Manchin and Sinema, on the other hand…

4925

Remember, this is the context here. A reconciliation bill has already been passed in this scenario.

4926

Yes, Thrag. I understand. And I explained it above. I don’t know what else you want.

I’ll just roll with

“Because we live in absurdist reality where I can no longer discount even what I once would have imagined was ridiculous.”

Because that is definitely true.

4927

They’ve stated several times they’ll vote for it- and there’s no ideological objection.

The reverse is not true, and the whole reason they’re putting this stance out there is because they don’t trust the moderates, with a long reason to distrust.

If the infrastructure bill doesn’t pass, it will be because the moderates didn’t negotiate, not the progressives.

The fact that Biden hasn’t been pressuring the left says plenty. Obama would have thrown them under the bus at the first drop, and enjoyed it. Biden is seeing things as they are more instead of being a blind ideologue the way Obama and the Clintons were.

4928

I’m pretty exhausted with this whole mess and also feel the Dems have already blown their opportunities for best outcomes in terms of timing. Theoretically they could salvage something by passing a the bipartisan bill and a narrower reconciliation bill, but they can’t get Sinema (and to a lesser degree Manchin) to sign on to a narrower bill so I’m not sure what’s going to happen. In theory, if the Reconciliation bill completely craps the bed, we could still salvage some crumbs with the bipartisan bill, but if we pass the bipartisan bill first, that’s it; we’re done (in more ways than one - the bipartisan bill doesn’t deliver enough to convince voters in 2022 the Dems are acting in their interests so we probably lose in 2022 with just the bipartisan bill.) Hell, in all honesty, I don’t see good possibilities for 2022 regardless. This 10 months of feckless uselessness after the swift passage of the COVID Relief 2021 is just a burning disappointment.

Edit: let me clarify. I’m not coming from a Dems in Disarray POV but rather “the whole system, especially the Senate, is F’ed, and so we’re all F’ed.”

4929

Thankfully, you do have some incumbents not running, like Rob Portman and Patrick Toomey.

Maybe we can pick up 1 or 2 of them, and hold the line.

4930

PA and WI should slightly favor Dems, and NC should favor Reps, though the Dems are likely to field a very strong candidate (or a decent one if Beasley wins) and the Republicans a mediocrity.

I think GA will be lost though.

4931

The infrastructure bill has passed the Senate. It will certainly pass the House. It is the reconciliation bill that is in danger. That’s why you use the infrastructure bill to force the reconciliation bill through, and not the other way around.

Yes, exactly. If everyone wants A but only some people want B, you can hold A hostage to get B, but you can’t hold B hostage to get A.

4932

This is why I’d be a shitty hostage negotiator, because I don’t think there’s a real hostage situation going on unless I believe you’re willing to shoot the hostage, which I’ve been assured time and again throughout this thread that Progressives would never do because of their principles.

“Look, we all want Bill alive so why don’t you just send him out?”
“We love Bill, but we want $3.2 Trillion dollars first.”
“No.”
“OK, we’ll send him out eventually. Not even in bits and pieces, but all together and just fine.”

4933

Progressives may indeed vote against the infrastructure bill if no reconciliation bill happens at all. That is very different from voting against the infrastructure after negotiating and actually voting for a reconciliation bill.

In the hostage scenario it would be shooting the hostage anyway after successfully negotiating their release and getting at least some of your terms in exchange.

4934

Me too.
The infrastructure bill is good for the country, the economy, the environment and for the Democratic party. Bernie and pretty much every progressive has said the same thing, hell even a substantial number of Republicans agree (and pretty much all sane Republicans).

The sooner it gets passed the more time it is for the benefits to become visible to the voters. That reduces the chance of the Republicans taking control in 2022 or 2024. Which after full scale nuclear exchange, is the scariest thing in the world for me.

There are legitimate pro and con arguments on virtually every aspect of the BBB bill, but I think it is possible to make Manchin happy.

4935

One thing I worry about is that Manchin is basically taking all the objections and doing them himselves, so the other Dems can play good soldier and not deal with the blowback.

4936

The hostage takers never actually want to kill the hostage. They want something else.

Again, yes. This isn’t complicated, really. Progressives want the best reconciliation deal Manchin and Sinema will agree to, and the only leverage they have is threatening the other bill, and that’s what they’re doing. Being irritate with them strikes me as, well, misdirected.