4957

From NYT:

The key provisions of Biden’s proposal include:

  • $555 billion to fight climate change , largely through tax incentives for low-emission sources of energy.
  • $400 billion to provide universal prekindergarten to 3- and 4-year-olds, and to significantly reduce health care costs for working families earning up to $300,000 a year.
  • $200 billion to extend an expanded tax credit for parents through 2022, and to permanently allow parents to benefit from the child tax credit even if they do not earn enough money to have income tax liability.
  • $165 billion to reduce health care premiums for people who are covered through the Affordable Care Act, to provide insurance for an additional four million people through Medicaid and to offer hearing coverage through Medicare.
  • $150 billion to reduce a waiting list for in-home care for seniors and disabled Americans, and to improve wages for home health care workers.
  • $150 billion to build one million affordable housing units .
  • $100 billion for immigration streamlining , in part to reduce a backlog of nine million visas. House Democrats proposed provisions last month to address the legal immigration system, including a plan to recapture hundreds of thousands of unused visas various administrations failed to use over several decades. The investment outlined on Thursday would also expand legal representation for migrants and streamline processing at the southwest border, officials said. Mr. Biden has faced criticism from both Republicans and Democrats for his handling of migration to the border.
  • $40 billion for worker training and higher education , including increasing annual Pell grants by $550.

Offsetting that spending is an estimated $2 trillion in revenue increases, including:

  • A 15 percent minimum tax on the reported profits of large corporations.
  • Efforts to reduce profit-shifting by multinational companies , including a separate 15 percent minimum tax on profits earned by U.S. companies abroad — and tax penalties for companies that have their headquarters in global tax havens.
  • A 1 percent tax on corporate stock buybacks .
  • Increased enforcement for large corporations and the wealthy at the Internal Revenue Service.
  • An additional 5 percent tax on incomes exceeding $10 million a year and another 3 percent tax on incomes above $25 million.
  • Efforts to limit business losses for the very wealthy and to impose a 3.8 percent Medicare tax on certain people earning more than $400,000 a year who did not previously pay that tax.

— Jim Tankersley and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

4958

This is all good stuff, and any Democratic President of the recent past would consider that plus the infrastructure bill a substantial legacy for a first term.

There are some things there I would quibble with on tactics — e.g. I’d rather put more people on Medicare than make Medicare better for those who have it, if I had to choose — but given the constraints in the Senate, I’ll take this.

4959

agreed, I just wish a national paid leave program could have been part of all this. That’s a disgrace.

I hope everyone climbs on board.

4960

I’m not against a national paid leave requirement, but it would probably not apply to small businesses, and in any event I’d prefer to help more people with the child tax credit and health care.

4961

So what about that proposal gets Manchin and Sinema on board?

4962

Democrat output will be depressed if the democrats continue to appear as though they can’t even get shit together in their own party to pass anything.

But hey, let’s watch and see.

4963

You can check out the absentee & early voting so far at

4964

I wanted to canvass two weekends ago. I never got contacted back until a few days ago, and unfortunately can’t THIS weekend due to work commitments. I wanted to phone bank over the weekend last weekend, but still haven’t been contacted about that.

If McAuliffe holds on and wins in Virginia on Tuesday, it’ll be a little bit surprising to me.

4965

Because of the previous paragraph or something else?

4966

It’s purely anecdotal from me too, but McAuliffe seems to be taking for granted that he’ll get 66% or more in Fairfax County…and I’m not sure he’s going to get to 62 or 63. Which will be bad bad bad. (Biden rolled up 70% in 2020.)

Virginia out-state voters have this thing about electing governors from the opposite party in the White House. They escaped that jinx in 2013 because the GOP ran a pretty terrible candidate against McCauliffe, but even then TM didn’t get to 50% of the vote. And in 2013, it was a Libertarian suctioning votes away from the Republican (Ken Cuccinelli). In 2021, it’ll be a far-left third party candidate suctioning votes off of McAuliffe.

4967

Not quite the response I was hoping for.

4968

Thanks! I can’t say I exactly have my finger on the pulse of VA politics so that was informative. And also a little worrying. I mean, with the GOP discarding even the appearance of respecting democratic norms, what could go wrong by electing a few more GOP governors?

4969

The McAuliffe campaign has been weird. They identified immediately that Youngkin was a threat and even said as much way back when.

But honestly – as a Viriginian – I couldn’t tell you one thing that McAuliffe is running on, much beyond “Continuing to not do terrible things”. Which is fine for me, for sure. But it doesn’t exactly move the needle with moderates.

And TM has tried to make this campaign an anti-Trump campaign. He’s tried to paint Youngkin as a Trump toadie, which is probably pretty accurate. But…does that still work? Is that still a viable strategy? I don’t think it worked too well in 2018, and I don’t think it worked as well as Dems thought it did in 2020. I think it can work when paired with other tactics as part of a unified strategy, but if that’s all you got, I’m skeptical.

And the thing is, Youngkin in his campaign appearances – hell, even in a McAuliffe anti-Youngkin ad – doesn’t LOOK like DeSantis or Abbott, who look like Trump cultist grim-faced true believers. Youngkin always has this sort of dumb, vaguely Paul Rudd-like “aw shucks” smile on his face that can make moderates think “Hey, that’s a nice guy. He won’t do terrible things!”

4971

As angry as I am, and much as I want to see Sinema and Manchin locked up for corruption, this is how I feel overall.

4972

So how good are the chances now? I haven’t followed the news today. Is everyone on board with this plan yet?

4973

From The Guardian’s live updates earlier:

and

Some people are never satisfied. Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema might have been expected to dance a jig when Joe Biden announced a pared down $1.75 trillion reconciliation package with no billionaire tax, no paid family leave and no expansion of Medicare to cover dental or vision.

Instead both Manchin and Sinema offered cryptically milquetoast remarks welcoming the framework, implying that the president forged ahead without getting them to sign off on it, and raising the spectre that they could demand yet more cuts.

Manchin, senator for West Virginia, reportedly said: “This is all in the hands of the House right now. I’ve worked in good faith and I look forward to continuing to work in good faith and that is all I have to say today.” Sinema, from Arizona, said “we have made significant progress” and “I look forward to getting this done”.

For Biden today’s departure to Europe, and especially Cop26, was a natural cutoff point to draw a line in the sand with a definitive sum. He is daring conservatives such as Manchin and Sinema, and progressives such as Bernie Sanders, to accept the compromise rather than carry on fighting and potentially sink the party.

But Manchin and Sinema’s lukewarm words are likely to fuel progressive fears that, despite the White House’s assurances, the pair are not “negotiating in good faith” but rather serving corporate masters. If and when they achieve their goal of passing a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, the pair have given themselves enough wiggle room to say the Build Back Better plan requires further tweaks.

Judd Legum, author of the Popular Information newsletter, tweeted: “I think the strategy here is to pretend Sinema and Manchin have agreed to this and hope it gets enough momentum that they won’t sink it. Big gamble.”

4974

Pelosi seems kind of freaked.

4975

She should be. Her gambit has totally failed and there is a decent chance that they end up with nothing to show for all the effort.

4976

So according to Pelosi the “text is up”. Looking for a link. Not sure if text refers to a full bill or framework for one that needs to be put in final bill form. I believe the later.

Progressive caucus member Madeleine Dean on CNN right now talking it up very positively.

4977

What?