5059

It’s that you’re not seeing what’s behind you, man. You’re so focused on your own perspective, that you aren’t considering anyone else’s, or how it’s perceived, or how it’s going to actually work.

I mean, look at this fucking bullshit that Alstein’s throwing out there. The idea of accerationism is trash. It’s the kind of thing that (not Alstein , but the progressives he’s referencing at least) childish imbeciles throw out there, because either they’re so secure in their lives that they don’t care about what kind of hardships that road will have for others, or they’re too fucking stupid to think about it.

That exact same crap was spouted by the far left in 2016, and gave us Donald Trump, and he caused immeasurable damage not only to the country as a whole, and the world, but to everything the left wants to achieve. There was no UPSIDE to Donald Trump. It was just fucking terrible.

The idea of “Well if we don’t get what we want, we’re just going to burn everything down, because then they’ll HAVE to make it better!” is dumb as shit. It’s a fucking child throwing a tantrum, and I’m not going to treat it with any more respect than it deserves, which is zero.

5060

If it makes you feel any better, when the GOP takes control of both houses in 2022 and maybe the White House in 2024, we won’t have to worry about any of this stuff anyway!

5061

That’s exactly why I get so worked up over this. The idea that if the left doesn’t get everything they want, then it’s better to get nothing, is not only stupid from the perspective of not actually making any progress… but it’s also going to usher the GOP back into power, and fucking DESTROY THE WORLD.

And that’s not intended as hyperbole. That’s what will happen.

We cannot make that kind of sacrifice on the altar of ideology. No one’s gonna give a shit about how you stood by your principles when authoritarian fascism takes hold.

You guys always talk about how nuts the dogmatic libertarians are for not considering how their ideas work in the real world, but then we’ve got folks talking about accelerationism as though it were any less fucking nuts.

5062

This is my hierarchy of blame/anger/whatever:

  1. Republicans
  2. Republicans
  3. Seriously. Fucking Republicans.
  4. Sinema
  5. Manchin
  6. Progressive wing holding out on the bill

I totally sympathize with the progressive wing. I consider myself most aligned with them. The things taken out of the bill? That’s stuff I’m seriously pissed at. I think all those things are desperately needed.

At the end of the day, though, you have to play with the hand you’re dealt. And the hand dealt to us in 2020 was pretty fucking weak. It’s what has put Manchin and Sinema in such a position where they can torpedo half the bill. It fucking sucks but the answer to that is win more seats. I know how much easier said than done that is, but that’s reality.

I wanted all the stuff in the bill. I hate to see anything go, but we just don’t have the leverage. MAD doesn’t really work when you’re dealing with a fucking death cult on the other side that would love nothing more than to see the country burn down under Biden’s watch.

5063

It’s like arguing with a vampire.

5064

I mean, incrementalism actually got us here – you understand that, right? The Democrats half-ass everything they do when they have power because we have basically-Republicans under our big tent, and the GOP capitalizes on it when two to four years pass and no one’s lives are materially any better.

I’m not excusing accelerationism, but if the Democrats actually implemented the Progressive agenda, people’s lives would be immediately, materially improved, and that would pay off electorally as well. The Progressives are making the best play to try and make that happen.

Frankly, I think you’re working yourself into a froth for nothing. The Progressive Caucus is bargaining, loudly and strongly, because Manchin and Sinema are negotiating in bad faith. But if a shit bill comes to the table, they’re passing it. No one except maybe Cori Bush is actually that much of an idealogue.

It’s total game shit. You have your XCOM guy take the 75% shot, because it’s better than the 50% shot. But if something happens and you no longer have the 75% shot, you take the 50% shot because it’s better than the 25% shot.

5065

I sincerely hope this is the case! As it is, I think the theater alone damages perceptions but that’s just a personal feeling, I’m no @triggercut with insight into data on how this is all playing out with the electorate.

5066

Maybe the better thing to think about is that a senate GOP would have spent this whole year investigating Hunter Biden, creating narratives that it was the Democrats that caused Jan 6, investing invented scandals and basically doing nothing but creating Fox News narrative drama, while holding the entire country hostage and demanding they get 100% of what they want or else nobody gets anything.

Now we’ve just got two people demanding that.

5067

And even she, with some minor complaining, said she will take the deal if the other side finally lives up to their end of the bargain that was originally offered and consistently maintained.

5068

Incrementalism is how you get anything done in the real world.

I hope you’re right, because if I’m wrong, then everything is cool.
I will be super happy to be wrong.

But the thing is, you are already suffering negative impacts from delaying this stuff.

Wasting time has a cost.

And ultimately, the only reason you’re wasting that time, is because you think that the only way to get Machin and Sinema to pass anything you want, is if you threaten them.

I do not think that’s an accurate perception of the world, no matter what folks on the far left are saying. They are democrats, and they do in fact agree with you on a ton of stuff that is not in the current BIP. You could get the BIP, and a bunch of other stuff, without holding the BIP hostage. And the BIP would already be passed and you’d have a huge win in your pocket.

5069

So, let’s look at the results so far of Manchin and Sienma’s strategy. Many weeks have passed all filled with democrats in disarray messages in the media. Apparently the victory these two have gained is the removal of paid family leave from the bill. A measure with incredibly strong support across the entire populace according to polling. They’ve also managed to reduce the timeline of most programs in the bill to five years.

Can someone explain how these victories were worth the carnage?

5070

This statement is pure wishful thinking and has no basis in current reality. Manchin and Sienma have had ample time to negotiate hard details of a bill in good faith. They have spent a lot of time stalling. It’s their actions that have destroyed trust that your wishful thinking will happen.

When they finally got around to outlining some of their desires, the rest of congress worked crunch time to prepare the text we finally see. There’s no excuse for the weeks passing without them engaging in 24/7 negotiations to hash things out. Just look at how long it took to get out of them that the incredibly popular paid family leave measure had to go?

5071

That’s the thing… you could have just avoided the carnage by… simply voting on the bill that everyone already agreed was good.

Then you’d be having exactly the same negotiations with Manchin and Sinema that you’re having now.

The self inflicted wounds aren’t actually helping with that.

You’re operating under the assumption that Manchin and Sinema don’t want anything in the reconciliation bill, and that’s just a totally false belief, that’s not based on anything.

There are some things they don’t want… but you aren’t going to be able to force them to do what you want by threatening them with shooting yourself in the head.

That’s your “leverage” here. Causing massive, irreparable harm to YOURSELF. It’s not a good negotiation strategy.

5072

No I do not assume that. You are once again the one again making assumptions. You spend so much time getting worked up, ignoring what people say, and arguing with your assumptions.

5073

Timex thinks progressives should be less progressive, or at least not argue so much about progressive policies and just lie back and think of England, news at 11.

5074

If you accept that there’s lots of stuff they actually do want, on their merits from the reconciliation bill… then your position becomes even crazier.

That means that you’re not only delaying all the stuff in the infrastructure bill, but you’re also delaying all the stuff that you agree with them on.

The whole point of not voting on the infrastructure bill, which you 100% want, is because you are trying to use it as a hostage to force Manchin and Sinema to agree to things they don’t want to do. Is that not a fair description of the strategy?

So let’s think about how this plays out… about the different options.

  1. Manchin and Sinema yield to pressure, and give you what you want. This is probably the ideal outcome, but I’m not sure why we should expect it.
  2. Machin and Sinema do not yield, and you are left with a bill that contains what they agree with you on… but you could get this at any time, without holding anything hostage.
  3. Manchin and Sinema do not yield, and you decide to just blow everything up. In this case, you are objectively worse off than in option 2, unless you are a crackpot accelerationist… so this isn’t really an option.

So, given the existence of option 2, the hostage taking really isn’t effective negotiations, unless you’re willing to do option 3. But you aren’t actually interested in option 3, right? It’s just a bluff. But everyone knows its a bluff… or, if it isn’t, then you’re basically going to destroy yourself. So, the bluff kind of depends upon convincing everyone that you’re totally irrational, which means that you kind of can’t be negotiated with anyway.

Not in this case… Here, I’m saying, “You have a chance to get all this shit that you want… take it.”

My interests are entirely aligned with yours, if perhaps only a subset of your own. I want the democrats to successfully pass stuff (and the stuff that you can agree on would constitute the biggest change in government programs in our lifetimes) so that they can win in 2022 and hold onto power.

That is my ENTIRE motivation here, because the alternative is horrific.

5075

Decaf.

5076

I’m operating on the assumption that Manchin and Sinema have had weeks to just tell someone, anyone, what they do want.

Manchin first said the amount was too great, and we just needed to bring it down. We did, then he said what we actually need is to take out anything that might be bad for coal. That’s not a good faith negotiation, and I have no reason to believe Manchin supports anything else in the bill.

Sinema is, I don’t even know… For a corporate tax hike but against a wealth tax? Or the other way around? We could ask her to clarify, but she’s apparently too busy attending fundraisers and lining her pockets to tell anyone what she’s okay with.

So I think you need to show your work on your second clause here. There’s no reason to believe that we could get this at any time, given that Manchin and Sinema won’t simply be honest about what they would be okay with now.

5077

Agreed. Best I can glean from the evidence at hand is that they really don’t want the reconciliation bill. Most of it. But they don’t want to come out and actually say that and get blamed for its failure because the policies in there are important. That’s why they are just stalling. They are hoping the BIF passes, and then they can slow-walk the BBB bill and run out the clock to 2022. Then the Republicans will be in power, and they will no longer have to take the blame.

At least, that’s the only thing I can come up with given the evidence at hand. If they really want this to pass, like Timex theorizes, then I’m not sure why they would keep delaying but make no actual demands. The moment they spoke and wanted paid family leave taken out, it got taken out immediately.

5078

The stuff I agree with them on is being delayed by me? Do you hear yourself at all?

It’s not being delayed by me. It’s not being delayed by the progressive caucus. It’s being delayed by Manchin and Sienma. How do you not get this? The progressive caucus has been arguing openly and in good faith. While the a draft of the text in bill form didn’t exist until yesterday (and it does now exist) what progressives wanted and their general price tags have been open knowledge since the election. It’s basically Biden’s campaign platform.

So why haven’t Manchin and Sienma crunched down over the last few weeks and hashed out extensive detail on the things they agree with? They’ve spent weeks cagily sort of indicating what may or may not be acceptable. They use weasel words in almost all their statements. They are being practically catered to hand and foot by the white house and the rest of congress to get them to finalize what they agree with.