You’re inventing a lot of stuff here? I was only pointing out that your argument was nonsensical because your data did not support your position.
Houngan
5946
To his point though, it’s entirely accurate that registered Democrats in Red states vote for Republicans in federal elections. They are not even close to the same as the average democrat from a blue state. We’ve covered this ad nauseum for decades. Dixiecrats, etc. A registered Republican from a historically union poor area is probably going to be so far right as to have a pointy hood in a closet somewhere, while the Democrat candidate is going to be what the rest of the country would call a mildly progressive (particularly in the labor sense) Republican.
Timex
5947
I had presented data supporting my position previously.
The rain why Sanders win in the primary against Clinton, was because Trump supporters voted for him… Not because they actually supported him, as a full 40% of those supporting Sanders in the Democratic primary said they were going to vote for Trump in the general election.
And the idea that west virginians probably don’t like the gay urban professional seems like something that is pretty obvious.
West Virginia isn’t a super progressive place, dude.
Alstein
5948
It isn’t, but there was a strain of labor rights that still exists from time to time there. It’s why folks like Manchin keep getting elected, and well, as much as I want to see Manchin made irrelevant, I’d rather him be the relevant voice than Murkowski.
Yes, this view is more or less what I was thinking when I wrote that comment.
I would be surprised to learn that most Republicans lie in response to polls, since polls seem to regularly predict actual Republican support to within a few percentage points. That would mean that most Republicans didn’t actually lie in response to the poll.
And I would be really surprised to learn that most Republicans lie in response to polls about the issues rather than about their choice for candidate. I’m not sure there is any good reason to believe that. On the other hand, they regularly vote for people against their own obvious economic interest, so maybe you’re right. But if that’s the case, then we don’t have any idea where they actually stand on any issue, and nobody should venture opinions about where they stand because those opinions are groundless.
Alstein
5950
Often, they agree with Dems on economic issues, at least for themselves, but they vote on the social issues, mostly abortion/gun rights.
That said, if Dems gave up on those things , they’d be manipulated into another part of the culture war.
You lose elections on the economy, you win them on social issues.
All the climate provisions are in BBB are they not? To me that makes it the more important bill.
You mean like the pollsters’ predictions races in New Jersey, and Virginia and not just the governors races the Lt. Governor and Attorney General were suppose to be for Democrats
Remember how Biden was up by 10 points over Trump in many polls in Oct and Nov of 2020, and instead, we got a squeaker of an election decided by several hundred thousand votes in a handful of states and the Dems almost lost control of the house.
The only polls that we should give a lot of weight to are the ones that happen on election day. In those polls progressive candidates and issues don’t do well in most states.
I’m sure you can do math well enough to understand that if ~5% of Republicans lied on a poll, then that means ~95% of Republicans told the truth on the poll. How you go from there to gah a poll showing 65% of people support X is meaningless is, well, beyond me.
Lantz
5954
His most narrow win was by over ten thousand. So more like several hundred hundred votes.
I meant several hundred thousand of votes. The important point is being that for the last 5 years when the polls have been wrong, as they have been often, the polling errors Republican are outperforming by enough to change elections or at least turn large Democratic wins into small ones.
It defies common sense to think West Virginia is filled with voters who support progressive ideas and if only the Democrats and the right message and/or messenger their issues would be popular.
As Trigger can explain better than I can, the result of polls is heavily influenced by how the questions are phrased as well the context around the whole poll. Advocacy groups are notorious for conducting bad polling, which is why polling conducted by other than reputable market research organizations should be ignored.
The questions in that poll are right there in the snaps I posted. Maybe you can point to the loaded phrasing?
The measures in the (original) BBB proposal were broadly popular across the country. They may be less so now, given the relentless false claims opponents make about them, but that is to be expected. It’s hardly surprising that poor people in WV might look favorably on measures that will make their lives better. I’m sure they want to keep receiving fully refundable child tax credits. I’m sure they’d like to benefit from more affordable child care and more reasonable parental leave policies. I’m sure they’d like better and more affordable housing, help with caring for their senior parents and so on. They’re people, many of them poor people, and these are actual problems they have.
Strollen
5957
When I go to filesforprogress.org
it gives me
HELLO
go try it yourself.
I want to see the screening criteria, response rates, and the script for the interview.
At the very least i want to know who the hell is we are in this sentence
“We provided likely voters in West Virginia”
If it is Data for Progress that should have URL to give me that info.
At least try.
From April 30 to May 4, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 440 likely voters in West Virginia using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
Strollen
5959
Here is more recent polling from the right leanng, but well know Rasmussen reports.
While 49% of Democratic voters in West Virginia say they support the Build Back Better legislation, the bill is opposed by solid majorities of both Republicans (72%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (58%). Even among Democrats, however, only 33% support the provision that offers legal status and work permits for up to 8 million illegal immigrants without any extra enforcement to gain control of the country’s border with Mexico or to deter future illegal migration.
Rasmussen provides information about their polling mythodolgy, and other information if I’m willing to subscribe to the reports.
Now both of these polls are advocacy polls and not worth a damn for accurately assessing support.
Oh and the link you gave me was polling about support of the American Families plan (Aka the Covid) relief bill, so it is not particularly shocking that West Virginia liked getting $1,400 checks from the government.
That was only the first two questions. Maybe read the original post you’re responding to?
It looks like they only talked about the immigration measures in the bill, and with that as context, asked people what they thought of the bill. That’s pretty special. You can’t even see the actual polling questions, unless there aren’t any. Maybe you can point to similar shenanigans in the actual questions in the Think Progress poll, which are right up there for you to read ☝️
I’m not really sure what you’re after. You’ve said the poll is cooked, but you won’t say how it is cooked. You’ve said all Republicans lie on polls, but that’s nonsense given the actual track record of polls. I get that you want to dismiss the poll, but it isn’t at all unreasonable that poor West Virginians would support some of the measures in the bill.
And if you want to say that they’ve changed their mind and no longer support the bill? That’s fine. Here’s me, just a few hours ago:
Strollen
5961
“We provide a description of the American Rescue Plan’s (note not BBB) major provisions” What was in the description? Did the description include things like increase the SALT cap, benefiting high earners in blue states, did include the fact that popular items like the increase child tax credit expires after a year or two. Did the description include the CBO score?
You keep saying the report includes the questions. When clearly it doesn’t. Here is a simple test to see if something is a polling question. The sentence will end in a question mark
Only, the last page from your post has an actual polling question. It is leading as hell. A fairer way of asking the question is. Federal subsidize childcare, long-term care for seniors and those with disabilities is estimated by the CBO to cost 1.X trillion dollars over ten years. It will allow families members currently stuck at home to enter the workforce and generate economic growth. Do you agree or disagree that these programs are worth the cost?
No, my friend, I keep telling you that the original post TO WHICH YOU RESPONDED includes the questions. Here is just one example:
The polling question offers a list of measures in the BBB bill and asks respondents to say how much they support or oppose it. It’s a pretty standard way of asking polling questions, even ones without a question mark!
Are you confused about what you responded to? Is that the problem?
No I am saying that actually interviewer script, contains additional verbiage beyond those words.
When you say insurance subsidies, what insurance are you talking about life, long-term care, automobile, health insurance, how much is the subsidy? who is eligible?
I guarantee you the question wasn’t
Do you strongly, somewhat support, … strongly oppose expanded CTC.
First of all only small % of the folks would have a clue that CTC is child tax credit (I think that’s what they mean). But before asking this question. The interview would provide some context. The American Families Plan would give families a check from the government for $300/child. What interviewer says matters a lot, do they mention it is only for one year, do they talk about the phaseout, do they mention taxpayer to cost of providing it? We don’t know the answer to any of those questions.
What I keep telling you and you don’t seem to believe is You are not seeing the actual questions, you are seeing a summary of the result.
The last time I got a political survey was for the mayor race. One of the biggest issues in the race was what to do with our horribly, late and overbudget proposed rail system. The interviewer provided a lot of detail, including the fact that there was no more Federal money available. He then describe several options for completing the rail, and asked what I supported. The details the interview provide were biased in favor of killing the project.
When the result were published a few days, all the detail was left out, and just the fact that if favored stopping it you like Candidate A and favored finishing it you liked Candidate B.
