The Biden Won & it's OVER, Deep dish pizza is delicious, & Gilmore Girls is awesome thread

[MikeOberly]

DJT’s message, as always, is cheat/ rob/ steal, whatever, until someone stops you.

[Menzo]

@Koz

If you trust the AP they just need to call NV and MI and that would be enough.

Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia say they’ll be done or mostly done today.
Nevada says it’ll be several more days.
PA says by Friday.
North Carolina counts until 11/12.

[Guap]

This is nervewracking.

[Grifman]

@ReptileHouse

@RayRayK

Interesting

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346

Very. I’m curious why they expect Pima to break for Trump, though. That’s Tucson which is pretty solidly blue.

I think the issue in AZ is most of the outstanding votes are Election Day votes, which they believe will break for Trump, just like mail ins are breaking for Biden elsewhere.

[Gordon_Cameron]

@MikeOberly

DJT’s message, as always, is cheat/ rob/ steal, whatever, until someone stops you.

Yup.

“I admire its purity.”

[dionisus1122]

I’ve heard this, but I’m not sure it is accurate. They are late arriving early votes, not election day votes from everything that I have read.

[Strollen]

@Rightbug

Imagine voting for Donald Trump after all his bullshit. Collins I get. I may not agree with her but she’s a functioning adult qualified to hold office. I have joked in the past that it’s hard to find a human being less qualified to be president than Trump but it’s true. After everything we’ve seen from him over the last four years, tens of millions of people across this country voted for more.

It is hard for me to get too upset about Susan Collin. I realize that her voting recording of supporting Trump 67% of the time is too much for most everyone. But she is the most independent Senator and I guess the people of Maine like that… The 1/3 of the time she voted against Trump were important votes like ACA, and against Justice Barrett.

Susan Collin and possibly Lindsey Graham is somebody that Joe Biden can work with to get things done. I’m far more upset that good guy like Steve Bullock didn’t win, or an asshole like Perdue got re-elected.

[Rightbug]

@Woolen_Horde

This is like the 4th quarter of every Seahawks game, except it never ends

Thank you for this analogy. Beautiful.

[rowe33]

@Strollen

Susan Collin and possibly Lindsey Graham is somebody that Joe Biden can work with to get things done.

OH FUCK THAT. They’re not going to work with Democrats on shit, unless it’s to backstab them at the appropriate moment.

[magnet]

For those who were concerned about the USPS, here is a decent analysis.

on the eve of such a critical election, a total sweep of the facilities in question as ordered by the judge is a prudent move. Why risk having ballots sitting around?

Unfortunately, the USPS did not complete the sweeps of the facilities by the court-mandated 3 p.m. EST, which has understandably raised concern, especially considering that Republicans have pushed in numerous states to throw out ballots that have not been delivered by the end of the day today.
…
Per standard operating procedure, USPS personnel sweep every facility, including the ones in question here, for ballots at least once a day during election cycles and report “all clear” certifications after they’re complete. The latest sweeps occurred this morning at 10 a.m. To order and coordinate a sweep by independent observers—of which there is often only one in entire sorting facilities which are often massive warehouses—in a matter of hours is no easy feat. It is likely the USPS was unable to comply with the court order due to the same bureaucratic inefficiencies that make the USPS unable to do anything differently on a rapid time scale. At any rate, those same independent observers were already scheduled to be on hand at the facilities from 4 to 8 p.m. to ensure no ballots were left behind, and Judge Sullivan decided that was good enough (before adding the USPS should be “prepared to discuss the apparent lack of compliance with the Court’s order” at their noon conference call tomorrow.)

[Daagar]

Agreed, this is laughable.

[KevinC]

@Guap

This is nervewracking.

But also enlightening. For instance, did you know that ulcers can develop ulcers?

[Noman]

Peters in MI is now 42000 votes behind, but there are at least 250000-300000 votes left to be counted, if not more. There’s a good chance, he can get ahead.

[Wallapuctus]

@Timex

Double rainbow dude died to covid.

I actually laughed, out loud, when I read this.

Ayyyyyy

[magnet]

It’s ulcers all the way down.

[antlers]

I don’t think we can say shenanigans.

Pollsters need a model of how the people who respond to their polls correspond to the electorate as a whole. Trump has broken their models with a proven appeal to people who previously had not voted; such people are discounted in pollsters’ models (other factors, such as cell-phones, phone spam, and caller id have probably broken their models as well…) It turns out that lots of previously low-engagement voters are turned on by a straight-up appeal to elect an authoritarian figure who will ignore the political process and the rule of low. Trump had vastly more resources to pull the same play this time around, and he was nearly(?) successful enough.

There are lots of people who feel that institutions will forever be unaccountable, and like the idea of personal rule because it is clear to them who they can hold accountable.

[ravenight]

@Matt_W

Are polling errors consistent nation-wide or just in battleground states? Do states with the worst errors use DRE voting? Stuff like that, I’d imagine, but yeah, I doubt it too and I don’t really know either. Thanks for the response!

A consistent shift in votes in one direction in similar areas over a large number of different precincts is far less likely to be shenanigans than a large shift in a single place (cough Miami-Dade). Though I suppose if voting machines can be hacked then any possibility is on the table - you’d have to figure out who made the machines in each area and look for interaction effects between, say, the 2016 vote, the 2018 vote, the shift since 2016, the shift since 2018, and the maker of the voting machines.

I doubt the results being close in the same places he had a surprise victory last time is due to shenanigans.

What pollsters will have to disentangle is: 1) how much of their miss was due to faulty turnout models vs. non-response bias?, 2) how can you handle the idea that undecided voters might break strongly for one candidate?, and 3) are there other questions you can ask that can give you a better sense of how a location is trending, instead of focusing on such a polarizing top of the ticket race? (or the corollary to that: how much better/worse were polls that asked first about a down-ballot candidate and only later about the top of the ticket?)

I really wonder where 538 goes from here - it’s clear that simply averaging the polls is not going to be a trustworthy approach in future elections, even if their constant “Trump can win” drumbeat has been somewhat validated.

[Grifman]

@dionisus1122

I’ve heard this, but I’m not sure it is accurate. They are late arriving early votes, not election day votes from everything that I have read.

Yeah, I keep hearing conflicting things on this.

[Rightbug]

@antlers

I don’t think we can say shenanigans.

Give it a week!

[Strollen]

@Daagar

Completely anecdotal based on my experience yesterday as a first-time poll worker - while there is ample opportunity for shenanigans, it isn’t happening. Any and all goofiness is from having a bunch of poorly trained people making simple mistakes because the provided direction in many cases is written worse that IKEA furniture instructions. I will likely never vote in person again after seeing the process first-hand - I trust mailing my ballot in a LOT more.

Obviously, this is just at the polling place level - lots of room for sleight of hand elsewhere in the process.

Thanks for being a poll worker, it is truly an eye opening experience isn’t it? I did it twice, and once as (trained) poll watcher. The training I received by GOP to be poll watcher was better than election worker. The training wasn’t bad, but it is really hard to cover all the contingencies. E.g. The person is registered at another polling location, but his current address is for this polling place.

Mail in ballots, just eliminate many of these special cases, and there are trained professional at the election centers who actually understand the fine points of election law, as opposed to a bunch of 1/2 trained volunteers at the precincts.

And as added bonus, less people catch a deadly disease with mail-in voting.