3012

This is what that math feels like to me.

As for the libertarian thing, I know someone who voted for LIbertarians beause they thought Biden wasn’t left enough. They are a complete wingbat though, so no loss there.

3013

I work with the numbers I have available. How many votes are left?

3014

We don’t know. Counts differ. But what we do know is that going off of the % reporting value isn’t accurate right now.

3015

ok, thanks!

3016

Didn’t they say ~90k remaining? I don’t have the official source on hand. Even if it’s 90k, it’s very doable.

3017

I’ve read 60k and 90k independently, so I think it’s a bit up in the air right now. I think “close” might be the best we can do until they start counting reporting again. :)

3018

All Trump signage taken down at the doughnut shop.

In related news, owners of said doughnut shop indicted for a million dollars of tax fraud.

3019

Here is your actual voter / election fraud:

Odd how major Democratic centers in swing states had such poor ballot delivery service compared to the national average.

3020

That’s cherry-picking a bit though. I’m not saying it’s wrong, but there are worse values from that report (I’ve picked the three worst):

  • 11/2: Colorado/Wyoming 53.15%
  • 11/3: Colorado/Wyoming 55.59%
  • 11/3: Appalachian 42.79%

Certainly how USPS was led leading up to the election needs to be investigated further, but it’s not just democratic swing states that suffered.

3021

I found this tweet in the thread helps with context

So yeah, every vote should be counted, but this is not (in absolute numbers) a large amount of votes. Really need to know the number of ballots that came in to each center and the number processed to understand the magnitude of the problem.

3022

Yes, those are both reasonable points / criticisms of the claim.

3023

Echoing that every vote should be counted, but:



3024

It looks like, if the ballots counted last night are representative of the ballots remaining, Trump is going to win Arizona. For me, that kind of puts a little bit of doubt over Nevada as well. I was really hoping that Arizona would be out of reach for Trump after last night.

This will be academic if Pennsylvania comes through for Biden, as predicted.

3025

Some GA news.

3026

Did they release more numbers after the initial batch last night? Because there were questions about what kind of ballots those actually were.

Edit: referring to:

3027

I can’t find anything on that, although Biden’s lead is substantially less than it was.

Here’s an AP piece on the remaining states; this doesn’t include AZ as they haven’t yet retracted their call for Biden. Includes a link on why the AP called AZ for Biden.

3028

They released some about midnight AZ time?

The vote distribution in those was pretty Trump-favorable. I don’t know that there is a good, non-wishful-thinking reason to believe that those are not representative of the uncounted ballots. Even if the remaining ballots are a few points less Trump-friendly, there still are more than enough to put him over.

3029

I could have sworn that someone tweeted last night that we’d see an initial swing towards Trump as rural counties came in and then a swing back to Biden but perhaps that was a different state.

3030
3031

It appears that there are about 500,000 votes left to count in PA (vote total ~6.8 M). Biden would need to get 67% of them to make up his deficit. I think it’s going to be uncomfortably tight.