3072

Correction: down to 135,000 now.

3073

25000- 5000 split, I think.

3074

So key question, how many left to count after those updates? That’s the issue I’m hearing. Any idea?

3075

Yes, I read they separated those out and are not being included in the reported numbers exactly because of this.

3076

From 538 posted an hour ago.

Trump and Biden are now separated by about 164,000 votes, with Trump leading. But the more than 460,000 outstanding mail ballots left to be counted are likely to lean heavily Democratic. And at least 116,000 of them come from Philadelphia, a very Democratic-leaning city where mail ballots so far have gone to Biden by more than a 9 to 1 ratio. If Biden wins those outstanding mail ballots by something approaching the margins he has been winning mail ballots statewide, those mail ballots should give him the lead statewide.

Still, there’s some uncertainty here, with different sources showing different numbers of outstanding mail ballots. The New York Times’ dashboard, for instance, may overestimate the outstanding votes in places like Philadelphia; its current estimate implies turnout for the two major parties in excess of 800,000, a sizable increase over the roughly 693,000 votes cast for major parties in 2016 at a time when lots of college students aren’t in town due to remote learning. That discrepancy could reflect a lag in adjusting for mail ballots that have already been counted. Or it could reflect provisional ballots — or the fact that mail ballots can arrive after Election Day, too.

And it’s hard to know how many total provisional ballots are out or how they are likely to break given all the voting by mail, although Biden won the large number of provisional ballots in York County, a GOP stronghold. The upshot: The votes are certainly out there for Biden to take the lead, and that’s my best guest, but there’s no guarantee. Caution is the word of the day.

3077

image
image752×521 76.7 KB

According to the NYT

3078

This is excruciating. I am going to have to step away from the news for a bit and do something else.

3079

So i mean, those ballots have effectively already been discarded then? Will they ever be counted? Or are they already considered “out of bounds”?

3080

I found at this point in the game where small batches of voting results are being released, the NYT data is not being updated on a timely basis. I would not base things on what you see there.

3081

I mean that text is from 9 minutes ago

3082

Seems all too easy for Trump to pull out AZ and we run out of blue votes in GA/PA. I’m taking the dog for a walk.

3083

They haven’t been discarded, they are still there to count, just not yet. They will be counted as a discrete batch so they can be taken out if required.

3084

Where are these numbers from? The PA SoS’s website still has a 216,000 vote gap with 763,000 ballots left to be counted. Also lists Dems has having about 65% of mail ballots by party affiliation, though that says nothing about how they actually voted. About 10% of mail ballots have no party aff. (And Dems would need about 64% of remaining ballots to win.)

3085

All I can tell you is what my experience has been over the last day in tracking results. Perhaps they are making a better effort as things get closer. But yesterday, even their updates lagged. YMMV.

3086

Please keep Safe and Sane all you Americans (and others that are tracking this election).

Have some fruit, get some sunshine, take deep breathes, stretch a little.
Take a break, go for a walk down to your favourite eatery, grab a bite and try relax a little.

3087

You want us to catch COVID?

3088

I have to lol at that. +1 like

3089

So, which remaining states should we expect to have called (barring court battles and recounts) by the end of today?

3090

They’re going to count them separately. They’re doing that to narrow the scope of any decision to exclude late-arriving ballots. Also, the reports I read said there are very, very few of such ballots.

3091

At this point, I’m feeling like PA and GA are just those things where a supervillain gives a little bit of hope just so that it’s all the more crushing when you finally lose.