The Biden Won & it's OVER, Deep dish pizza is delicious, & Gilmore Girls is awesome thread

[triggercut]

@Wallapuctus

PA just updated on NYT again and it looks like Trump expanded his lead. I don’t think Biden’s gonna get there.

It’s showing the same numbers for me, and I just refreshed it. Hasn’t updated since very early this AM.

About 135,700.

[magnet]

@Wallapuctus

Point is, why make a trade agreement, or climate agreement, or disarmament agreement with the US when every 4 years we reserve the right to blow up that deal because we swapped political parties?

Because agreements are beneficial in the short term, even if they are later discarded.

Keep in mind that Trump left the Paris agreement as well as other agreements using predefined exit procedures specified by the treaty. That should tell you that the drafters anticipated from the start that signatories might not stay in the treaty. But the treaties were signed anyway, because there are immediate benefits.

[Juan_Raigada]

@triggercut

@Wallapuctus

PA just updated on NYT again and it looks like Trump expanded his lead. I don’t think Biden’s gonna get there.

It’s showing the same numbers for me, and I just refreshed it. Hasn’t updated since very early this AM.

About 135,700.

Also, in CNN they just say they estimate about 700k absentee ballots left to count.

[Wallapuctus]

@Juan_Raigada

Also, in CNN they just say they estimate about 700k absentee ballots left to count.

Mine went from 89% to 91% and it looked like Trump gained votes. The gap was like 120k and now it’s 135k.

I could be hallucinating. I need to stop looking at it.

[triggercut]

I’ve got to run to set up some stuff for work.

Look: this could all come up pear-shaped, for sure. Donald Trump still has a path to re-election, even now. It’s a very, very narrow path, but it’s there for now. Estimates of remaining ballots at this stage can be notoriously unreliable. Georgia could just say “Oops, we goofed. There were just a few left.” Same with Pennsylvania. I doubt it, but you never know.

But your default setting on this right now should be at least somewhat optimistic, until evidence suggests otherwise.

[Juan_Raigada]

@Wallapuctus

@Juan_Raigada

Also, in CNN they just say they estimate about 700k absentee ballots left to count.

Mine went from 89% to 91% and it looked like Trump gained votes. The gap was like 120k and now it’s 135k.

I could be hallucinating. I need to stop looking at it.

I think they changed their estimate of remaining votes. It’s now at about 540k

[Wallapuctus]

@magnet

Keep in mind that Trump left the Paris agreement as well as other agreements using predefined exit procedures specified by the treaty. That should tell you that the drafters anticipated from the start that signatories might not stay in the treaty. But the treaties were signed anyway, because there are immediate benefits.

And the Iran deal, and the Kurds… I’m sure there are others but those two come to mind.

North Korea played us right. Get a deal, reap all the benefits, then just don’t do what you said you’d do.

[abrandt]

@triggercut

But your default setting on this right now should be at least somewhat optimistic, until evidence suggests otherwise.

Yeah, and the logical part of my brain understands that. But then some other part of my brain looks at the big number gap in PA and freaks out, because how could Biden really make that up? Anyone freaking out probably just needs to keep looking at where MI was at Tuesday night and then compare to where it’s at today.

[DeForrestation]

Trump’s presidency is what finally pushed me over the edge to start dealing with my lifetime anxiety disorder in a meaningful way. Turn’s out, doing that can make you feel better.

[Dejin]

@Wallapuctus

I don’t think Biden’s gonna get there.

You are worrying too much. All the election experts say Biden almost certainly has it in hand. Cohen (at the NYTimes estimated late last night that Biden should win by about 2% or more).

Nate Cohn (Nate_Cohn)

Here’s his updated article from 10 minutes ago:

Biden Appears to Hold Edge in the Key Votes Left to Be Counted

On Pennsylvania:

There is every indication that Mr. Biden remains on track to pull ahead when all of the votes are in and counted, whenever that may be.

So far, Mr. Biden has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. That’s a pretty decent cushion.

[rhamorim]

@Dejin

All the election experts say Biden almost certainly has it in hand.

That “almost” is the problem. How many of us have missed that 95% shot in XCOM?

[Gordon_Cameron]

I feel like continuity of policy is always going to be an issue with democracies. We’ve all managed to trundle along so far.

[magnet]

I don’t think we had a treaty with the Kurds.

And Iran will rejoin a deal if we offer them significantly more than the last deal, because that’s in their national interest. Even if it only lasts 4 years. Diplomats can’t take things personally.

[KevinC]

@DeForrestation

Trump’s presidency is what finally pushed me over the edge to start dealing with my lifetime anxiety disorder in a meaningful way. Turn’s out, doing that can make you feel better.

That’s honestly great! Silver lining to the shit show, right? :)

[Dissensus]

@Menzo

if you’re going to wallow, use the separate thread that now exists for it. But please stop trying to make me depressed too.

I agree. I come to this thread for three reasons:

1. Election updates
2. Speculation about those updates that go a bit beyond simple wish- or doomcasting
3. Discussion about the beloved dramedy Gilmore Girls

[DeForrestation]

I’m genuinely excited to see how much better I (WE ALL) feel once we don’t have to hear this man’s name, see his antics, or watch another government agency/norm/decency be destroyed on a daily basis. Excelsior!

[jpinard]

@DeForrestation

I’m genuinely excited to see how much better I (WE ALL) feel once we don’t have to hear this man’s name, see his antics, or watch another government agency/norm/decency be destroyed on a daily basis. Excelsior!

Well 1 out of 3 ain’t bad.

[dionisus1122]

I understand why everyone is worried. God knows my emotions go up and down… but I personally think you would rather be Joe Biden in every remaining state save North Carolina.

I personally think Trump’s margins in Maricopa are just a hair behind where he needs to be, like 1%

And I think the opposite in Georgia, where I think Biden is over-performing what he needs for the remaining ballots.

And I just don’t see any indication of Pennsylvania slipping away… even if there are only 425k outstanding ballots.

But, like Trigger said, there is plenty of room for error and it could all go sideways

[Dave_Perkins]

@DeForrestation

I’m genuinely excited to see how much better I (WE ALL) feel once we don’t have to hear this man’s name, see his antics, or watch another government agency/norm/decency be destroyed on a daily basis. Excelsior!

Me too! I’ve considered starting a Biden presidency thread, if and when that happens, in which my only stipulation is that no one links to any tweets by Trump, McEnany, Conway, or Brett Favre.

[MichaelD]

Please don’t jinx us!