For reference, here’s the Silver thread where he explains why he’s skeptical of Kornacki. It’s several tweets, so click through to read the whole thing.
Also, Kornacki does work for a TV channel (whose producers might encourage on air talent to do things to keep eyeballs on them, or simply to fill time), so there’s that too.
They routinely call states where there are more uncounted ballots than the margin in actual counted ones. It’s barely possible those ballots might upend the result we are predicting doesn’t seem to normally stop them.
Sure that’s possible, they call it at midnight when everyone’s too tired to go shoot up the newsroom… I think they’re just milking this as long as they can for advertising dollars.
DraiAC
5589
This may be cynical, but I think the networks are all loving the full week of crazy ratings and don’t have a ton of incentive to call it until somebody else does.
This is certainly possible, but whether it’s greed or fear, it’s irresponsible and dangerous.
My issues with Kornacki’s video
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He makes the claim that maybe 25k or 30k of the outstanding mail-in ballots or whatever could not be accepted. That seems extraordinarily high to me
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He basis his analysis of the provisionals on some of those coming back strong for Trump in Trump areas… but he doesn’t give a breakdown of whether those provisional ballots are in Philly or Pttisburgh or where. If 40k+ are in Philly and Pitt area, then this seems to be just enough to drive everyone’s anxiety. If only 5k are in Philly and Pitt, then yeah, there is reason to be worried.
Today’s PA counting (since this morning’s big blast) has gone… slowly. Very, very slowly. Pittsburg area is expected to drop 35k soon though.
Exactly right. We won a battle here, but it’s going to be a long damn war.
I think Gwinnett County just said a very loud hello down in Georgia.
Yeah. Unless someone has super fat fingers and it’s an error…
It’s for realsies.
That may have just ensured that Biden carries Georgia, even after overseas/military ballots and a recount.
Math for Georgia crystalizes. Trump needs to find a net of 5k votes with the cured ballots, remaining provisionals, the little remaining military vote…
Not impossible, honestly, but hard. Going to a recount regardless
It’s getting harder and harder to see a realistic path for Trump here.
Legacy. It becomes all about the legacy, IMO.
magnet
5603
According to my calculations, Trump’s probability of winning is now 40%.
the race is on a razor’s edge as Biden creeps forward, ever forward, more slowly than is visible to the naked eye, as we await, on the precipice of history, for the inevitable …
