So just to recap, at this point in time it looks like Biden is leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada with only mail-in votes left to count, and mail-in votes have been breaking around 2-1 in favor of Biden, meaning he should secure those leads, correct?
If that’s right, he doesn’t need any other states to get to 270 by my math? Pennsylvania or Georgia would be a nice feather in the cap, but everything else in play can go Trump and if Biden has Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona it’s over?
KevinC
1688
I believe that is correct. Who knew that Nebraska district could potentially be so important. Thanks, Omaha!
That’s right. And amazingly the 1 electoral vote in NE.
Timex
1690
I think at the end of the day though, I think folks really do need to start questioning sources like 538. They are not as good as folks seem to have given them credit for. We’ve had this discussion before, and Espresso sent me a link at 538 about how good their predictions were. I dug way down through their data… and it ain’t nearly as good as they suggest. When they’re doing stuff like calculating their own brier score, the dataset is being heavily weighted with garbage predictions (for instance, predicting that guys like Johnson would lose… no shit he’d lose. Saying he’s got a 99% chance of losing is not impressive… but it heavily improves the brier score they present).
I feel like folks gravitate to polls that tell them what they want to hear sometimes.
wahoo
1691
my understanding is that AZ mail in is not as pro-biden and may not be pro-biden at all. Lot of uncertainty there. But rest is correct.
Starting to look more like 270-268 Biden.
138
1692
Western Maryland, here. Right in the middle of Trump Country on the East Coast. I could not agree more with what you’ve written. I’m so disappointed in this country, it’s beyond belief.
Well, I guess I can breathe a little now.
Too bad about anyone needing another round of stimulus payments though.
What is the alternative? Is your point that 538 is systemically worse or polling, in general, isn’t effective?
It’s not up to him, or this is no republic.
Timex
1696
I feel like it’s not nearly as scientific as they lead people to believe.
Well, to be fair, there were a lot of 269-269 scenarios plotted out that hypothesized about Maine or Nebraska being the 1 point needed to secure victory…it’s just those were the supposed “Doom and Gloom” predictions, while most pollsters had an 85%-90% possibility of a Biden win.
One thing 2016 and 2020 has taught me, polls are an outdated methodology that needs to go away. You can’t get something this wrong this badly twice in a row and expect people to ever take you seriously again. I apologize to anyone here on QT3 that makes a living as a political pollster, but for fuck’s sake, this was supposed to be addressed form the 2016 fiasco.
The way I see it, we’re in a shitfight for the rest of our lives. Every election, every midterm, every campaign. It’s not for nothing that there are more of us. I take an iota of comfort in that (but take back one kadam to honor the fucked up anti-democratic system whose country this is)
I think the entire concept of polling needs to be rethought. They’re not right. They’re not even close.
Calling people on telephones is not relevant in 2020. Anyone who is a modern, working, average person is not picking up phone calls from unknown numbers, if they’ve even set up their phone to allow such calls through.
Either that, or Trump people could just be lying to pollsters specifically to fuck with the campaigns.
Diddums
1701
Rayrayk looks good in the aftermath, other folks with assorted NDAs and polling in general not so much.
I think they are lying, but I don’t think it’s specifically to screw with the polling. It’s a combination of a) some are embarassed to admit they’re going to vote for someone like Trump, and b) some are AFRAID to admit it because they believe the far right propaganda about antifa or whoever hunting them down.
Yup. You all raked that guy over the coals. He was dead on.
This is a racist country.
Dems need to start giving away AR-15s or something.
Informative thread regarding PA.
By asking him to show his work?
And I think some of them are Q fucktards who are looking to throw a monkey wrench into anything they can.
