antlers
1768
Have they already done the RCV realloc, or did Collins get an absolute majority in the first round?
I too missed this in the hubbub of last night, my deepest condolences.
Absolute majority. She won rather handily.
Edit:
Yeah, from my perspective social conservatism is fueled by a natural inclination of people to think that things should stay how they always were (defined by how I remember them when I was young). We all have some of that – I hear similar stuff about gaming all the time, and I feel it myself regarding things like phones.
It gets more severe with age especially for people with relatively low power to pick and choose among the new stuff, especially when the times really are worse in some ways.
But it is a rolling thing. People move along a conveyor belt through their years, and finally die, but that conveyor belt is always bringing new people with a gradually changing crop of resentments. And, as you say, there’s currently a lot of people along the last portions of that conveyor belt.
It’s also that the GOP is masterful as weaponizing these feelings for political purposes, and probably also that Dems fall into the trap of overreacting. I told my grandfather I thought he was wrong about stuff, but I never went for the jugular when it came to his feelings. Sometimes liberal commentary can sound pretty heartless attributing normal human delusions to the worst possible motives. And that just helps the GOP weaponize this stuff.
At least, that’s how it looks to me.
LOL.
One of those strides isn’t accuracy then.
In fact, I’d argue that most private pollsters were more wrong than reputable public pollsters. The House map on the morning of November 4 looks nothing like the house maps predicted by both private Republican and Democratic pollsters working for the NRCC and DCCC.
Not only are we clustered, I suspect we generate the lion’s share of the GDP. Assuming that’s correct, Republicans should totally go for assigning the EC by capitalist contribution, rather than square miles of empty flyover, right?
In the last two recounts of Wisconsin statewide elections, 113 and 330 ballots changed hands.
Biden leads there by 21,000.
RayRayK
1776
Committee polling can be a mixed bag, campaign focused polling firms have been fairly on the money, at least the ones that I’ve seen.
NBC does not quite agree.
Noman
1778
Aaah, Susan Collins went above 50%!
Ok, even 48-49 won’t be bad. At least now Lisa Murkowski can’t just take her ‘principled’ stands knowing that it won’t change the majority. Susan Collins furrowed brows may also join in some cases.
CraigM
1779
Last election it was something like the counties that voted Clinton represented more than 2/3 of economic output.
This election will be more skewed. Probably closer to 75%.
I mean that’s good and all, I just wish it were DONE. I’ll be able to relax then. Until then I’m just mentally preparing for, as someone put it earlier, shenanigans.
I just realized I’ve been conditioned over the years to immediately think “fuck” when I see “cluster.”
I’ve seen about 20 from battleground states from campaign who had the funds to afford pollsters, and all but a handful weren’t even in the ballpark.
So the takeaway is, if Warren is the nominee and COVID doesn’t happen, Trump wins in a walk?
Yay.
I think with either one of those, Trump wins. With both COVID and Warren it would have been a total landslide for Trump.
Scrax
1785
We just need about 250,000 Californians to bite the bullet and move to North Dakota and South Dakota, each. Come on guys - do it for the team.
RayRayK
1786
Ones I’ve seen out of GA, NC, FL, ME, AZ where right on the money so far.
Enidigm
1787
I mean i think that’s all true, but it’s simpler. In fact i’m more and more an advocate of simple explanations because it feels like the wordier you get the more wrong you are.
Conservatives have an Us vs Them corralling that Liberals just don’t have and actually have a hard time even understanding. And Conservative media is entirely wired to reinforce and inflame this feeling. The deepest enemy Conservatives fear today is an internal, not external, enemy, and Conservative media drives the modern political conservation.
