dtolman
1908
Date point: Maricopa went 50/50 in 2016, and Trump got only 40% of the vote in Pima in 2016.
Right now Pima is 60/40 Biden, and Maricopa 52/46. Reversion to 2016 isn’t enough to overcome the gap.
That said, I have no idea about what kind of vote is left to be counted, and what the drift of that voter is. Perhaps there is a rabid Trump contingent left to be counted. Perhaps not.
First, “likelier” doesn’t mean it’s sewn up. Also,it’s depressing that there are enough fucking idiots out there who want four more years of Trump and yet we can’t get a handle on how many were likely to vote his way. It’s double depressing that, even though maybe, just perhaps, enough people voted for Biden that he tips enough critical states his way to get to 270 (despite massively outperforming Trump in the popular vote), enough bozos decided to split their tickets and return wastes of skin like Collins to the Senate, and as a result we’ll get jack squat in the way of pandemic relief, infrastructure spending, immigration reform etc. passed (and no federal court reform, of course). So things will keep getting shittier and then two years from now, like clockwork, the stupid American electorate will not learn from its mistake in 2010 and will repeat it in 2022, electing a big ol’ Republican Houseful of Trumppalos.
The GOP has this shit down to a science, and the US is on the way to becoming “The Brazil of the North.” Just in time for my retirement in a couple of years. Medicare will probably be gutted by then, let alone expanded, so, fun times!
Houngan
1910
That’s why Texas worries me, it sure seemed like it would be a different story early yesterday.
Also, Peters looks like he’s up about 1,100 votes in MI.
Yes, obviously. But the tone a few hours upthread was “it looks like a win, but we didn’t sweep Texas and Florida, so we feel lousy.”
I don’t think the other side would treat an equivalent scenario in the same way. We’re in a knife fight for the rest of our lives, so let’s just accept it and get to knifin’.
we’ll get jack squat in the way of pandemic relief, infrastructure spending, immigration reform etc. passed
Don’t forget climate action, which long-term is more important than all of the above.
Yup, I said this right before going to bed, Biden was winning 65% of the vote when he needed 75% plus. That said I slept soundly thanks to your assurances about Michigan. Still Nevada and WI, are both too damn close for me to not remain nervous AF.
“Knifin’” is for younger men than myself. I’m honestly too disgusted right now.
And yeah, the climate stuff too, FFS.
KevinC
1915
I think all the votes in WI have been counted with Biden up ~20,000. At least that posted sometime earlier this AM in this thread? Worry about AZ!
Fox says Biden won AZ fwiw.
Stephanie Saul, in Atlanta 7m ago
Of the 200,000 uncounted votes in Georgia, most come from left-leaning areas of metropolitan Atlanta, suggesting they’re likely to skew Democratic. See Georgia results ›
20K, is a razor thin margin and less than 1% lead. Why worry about AZ?
Decision Desk is showing
|VOTES|PCT%|
||Joe Biden|1,410,977|51.01%|
||Donald J. Trump *|1,317,468|47.63%|
||Jo Jorgensen|37,427|1.35%|
That’s a pretty comfortable lead, with most of the uncounted votes being mail in.
rowe33
1920
Well yeah, what do you expect the Deep State to say!
KevinC
1922
Because you’re a Democrat now, my friend. Flop sweat is just what we do.
EDIT: Okay, to be serious: the elephant types are saying the early results skewed Biden similar to how it skewed for Trump in many other states. So the outstanding votes in Maricopa should be friendlier to Trump than what we’ve seen thus far.
Is that accurate? I have no idea. But it’s what I’ve chosen to have gnaw at my gut this morning, apparently.
20K is much more than DJT will overcome with any sort of recount. I think a recount in WI in 2016 changed about 130 votes.
Having spent the bulk of 10 summers in Kentucky, I can assure you: it’s really not that great.
OH, I FORGOT THE BEST PART GUISE, GET SET FOR MORE DEBT CEILING DRAMA IF/WHEN BIDEN WINS! YAY!
