Behold our glorious cubist financial predictions
Thrag
3023
Separate from the chart, I do love the description of someone as “at least enough of a big deal to have been on cable news”. Quite the damming with faint praise.
I thought that faint praise was so great too!
Put me in the camp that expects BTC to rise again. Speculators are getting crushed, across many crypto assets - as they should. But there are still a ton of people, with real money and energy, that will double down on BTC and other top uses once the dust settles (probably not until the Fed is done tightening… Next year?).
That’s an agnostic view - I dabbled with BTC in the past, it’s neat and was incredibly useful for me (moving my savings out of a country I wasn’t a citizen of or physically present in). Thankfully I was wholly out of it some time ago, so haven’t had to ride the emotional rollercoaster. But I can still see the enthusiasm among the true believers…
Thrag
3025
Does anyone expect this to be the final death knell for BTC? For other smaller projects and probably some exchanges, sure, but BTC is almost too big to fail and unfortunately at this point integrated into the general finance ecosystem to an not insignificant extent.
This is pretty stunning:
The above is a 24-hour chart for LUNA, which I guess is supposed to be a stablecoin.
At 9pm last night, one LUNA traded above $1.00 per coin, still (obviously waaaay down from when it traded over $100 per coin two or three weeks ago, but still). As of me typing this right now, it is trading for 1 and a half cents per coin.
Which…YIKES! If I was that dude on Twitter who created that coin, I’d be going into hiding right now.
That’s not necessarily true. Yes coinbase makes money via transaction fees, but they only get those fees when transactions are happening. When crypto is in a bull market it generates a lot of hype and a lot more people are buying and selling. When crypto is in a bear market there’s less hype and less transactions (in both individual user quantity and monetary value) and thus less fees are collected.
Shovels are only profitable to sell as long as people still believe there’s gold to dig up.
New Years Eve, 2021. $LUNA now trading at just above 1 cent USD.
Sweet hay-zoos:
I agree that Bitcoin is sticking around. Everything seems on shaky ground.
Basically Bitcoin found the first conch shell on the beach and declared it to be currency. All the other minted coins are people rushing around waving snail shells around. It’s all a shell game, but everyone agrees the Great Conch is a limited issue item and can hold its value. If there are more shellcoins then sand on the beach, it’s the late coming investors who are getting washed out.
Thrag
3030
That’s actually the coin tied to the stablecoin that is supposed to peg at 1 US Dollar.
The stablecoin it’s tied to is currently under 50 cents.
The way these silly things work in simplest form is you have a “stable” coin which is tied to a regular kind of coin. To keep the stable coin at 1 USD you transact on the other coin and raise or lower it’s value. Nobody wants to buy the backing coin now, despite the promises of 20% interest that are the only reason it had any money in it and thus had perceived value in the place. Terra can’t be devalued any more to prop up UST. It’s the stablecoin death spiral. It’s happened before, apparently to the same guy who created this scheme.
Luna isn’t a stablecoin. It’s the arbitrage mechanism for the stablecoin
Thrag
3032
It’s a little confusing because they are both “Terra”. Terra USD the stable coin and Terra Luna the magic box that is supposed to hold it up.
I’m going to start throwing “ad apparatum” into my casual speech randomly. That way people will know that I’m smart!
(If you’re wondering what “apparatum” means, Google doesn’t know either.)
$LUNA = exponential growth
How in the fucking world does anyone expect exponential growth to continue forever?
I was going to say BTC was already going up, but it’s already going down again.
Ah, stability.
I suppose we can be grateful for the accelerating heat death of the planet I guess.
JoshL
3037
Interestingly, Tether had a brief dip to 95 cents this morning, but has recovered. No idea what caused that or if it will shake people’s confidence.
Luna/UST meanwhile, is worthless. Luna is down to 1 cent (from $80 less than a week ago), and UST (the stablecoin!) is banging around between 40 and 60 cents, but I can’t imagine it has long to live now that the Luna coin can’t prop it up anymore.
To me, investing in crypto is like gambling.
Anyone putting serious money in crypto better be prepared to not have money.
I felt this chart needed an update to better reflect the situation.
