They’ll be going to work because they have jobs.
Fantastic post, very well written. I totally agree, and would add that over the past two decades Republicans have expertly utilized their Conservative Media propaganda machine to keep those poor and middle-class white Christian Americans moving further and further away from not just the Liberal/Democrat ideals, but from supporting the kind of government that would actually benefit them, the government “of the people, by the people, for the people”. Instead they’ve been conned into believing that if we just give rich people and corporations all the money and power, it will then benefit us because money, jobs and prosperity all come from the top and trickle down to those deemed worthy.
It’s going to have to get worse before it gets better. The GOP is approaching critical mass in terms of it’s power to seriously damage the American economy, reputation and people. Even their vaunted media machine is having a difficult time spinning what it happening as positive. When the balance tips, it’s going to get ugly. The GOP is so far down the garden path at this point that there is no predicting what they might do to try and retain control.
I think it’s fairly predictable:
- Scapegoat muslims and immigrants
- Double down on voter suppression efforts in poor/ brown areas
- Continue to lie to their base about nearly everything
The difficult part is predicting how far this will all go. We’ve seen that few GOP politicians possess any sense of shame or any regard for the good of the country, as distinct from their own interest in retaining power. Hopefully, we find out soon where the actual boundaries are.
Full disclosure, we explored the possibility of putting together a 100-person swarm intelligence to predict this race, and eventually backed out of it. Weighting in Alabama is damned hard. Not just for race/age/gender, but also area. Area, we discovered, is a huge factor.
I’m going to predict here that Moore wins by 3-4%. I think, as was the case last year with Trump, there are ‘shy’ voters out there who don’t want to admit what they’re going to do in the privacy of their voting booth/station. I think the media called it the shy Trump voter, if memory serves. I suspect we’ll see a repeat here.
I’m saying probably Moore by single digits, but even so.
That a Republican is trying to squeak to a single digit win in Alabama…
(Shelby held his seat in 2016 by winning by a 37% margin.)
If I was a suspicious and distrusting person I would even speculate that FOX News and other conservative outlets are intentionally fluffing Doug Jones’ numbers to scare more Conservative Republicans into showing up at the polls tomorrow.
Note : I am a suspicious and distrusting person.
My gut says that Moore wins by double digits, but in the 10-12% kind of range. My feeling doesn’t have any basis in deep analysis or anything like that, I just think there are people that aren’t going to want to admit they’re voting for a pedophile.
I think it will be decided mostly by turn out and that your numbers are about right.
The FOX used two pollsters on this, one from the Democrats and the other Republican. Their polling methodology here is fairly sound.
For those wondering WTF Triggercut is talking about:
It’s been 2 years since then. Yes, democracy has been revolutionized and healthcare may be about to be transformed - but I don’t think triggercut wants the credit for either of those.
We’ll take credit for predicting #MeToo as Time’s Person of the Year in mid-November though, when it was the fifth-betting favorite. :)
That’s exactly what FAKE POLLSTERS would say! ;-)
As the old Chinese curse goes, “may you live in completely stupid, gross, and fucked-up times.”
In the CNN clip, Nelson says Moore locked the door when she protested. This is ridiculous, my companions in Opelika laughed. “The only way you can’t get out of a locked door is with child-proof locks,” Bennett says. And child-proof locks didn’t exist in the ’70s.
But he was larger than her, I say. He could have forced her to stay inside, regardless.
Exactly, Bennett says.
“If he wanted to do anything, he would have done it,” she says. “If he was turned on, he would have done it. He’s strong, he was into martial arts, he would have done it. He would have raped her.” The fact that Moore didn’t rape her (Nelson does not allege rape), that he relented, is proof enough.
I asked, is there anything that would make you believe Nelson?
“A blue dress,” she said, referring to Monica Lewinsky’s semen-stained garment.
There are endless ways to cast doubt on Moore’s accusers’ stories, or to diminish them. Why did these women wait decades to come forward? Why did these allegations only come out in the weeks before the elections?
and…
“People dog pile on people all the time and it’s not true,” he says, mentioning the 2006 case where a woman brought false rape allegation against Duke lacrosse players.
He also doesn’t like that Minnesota Sen. Al Franken is stepping down amid groping allegation. “I do not like Al Franken, I do not agree with what he did, but running people out on allegations alone, without being a trial, is a scary place for this country to be in.”
It’s interesting that the logical contortions engaged in defending Moore also lead some Republicans to suddenly be supportive of Al Franken.