Ok, well I picked up a couple years worth of gold from Newegg today so I’ll give it a try in a few days.
Do let us know. Mine expired a few weeks back, I think.
A true shocker, i know.
I’m confused; the body of the article says,
“Microsoft also submitted that its internal analysis shows a [redacted]% decline in base game sales twelve months following their addition on Game Pass,” the CMA noted in its report.
Which isn’t exactly the same thing as cannibalizing sales. Makes a more dramatic headline, though. And with the redaction you can let your imagination run as freely as you like!
Don’t a lot of games have a [redacted]% decline in base game sales 12 months after some given date?
Pretty much every game but GTA, I’m thinking.
In the context of the report it’s more clear they mean the 12 month period following addition; pages 57-59ish.
If the sales dip happens at the one-year mark does that mean before the one-year mark there is no sales dip? Maybe this is why things leave GamePass after about a year, if you stay longer than a year you start to see it affect sales?
5.61 Microsoft also submitted that its internal analysis shows a []% decline in
base game sales twelve months following their addition on Game Pass.
On p.60 of
which references via footnote #123 = Microsoft response to the phase 1 Issues Letter. So this was also already revealed previously/elsewhere?
It’s the twelve month period of sales following being added to the service. They are noting a trend that after a game is added to the service the sale drop by a greater percentage than normally for a game in the same point of it’s lifecycle.
Did they do any comparison on how the revenue is impacted? I have no idea what kind of money they get just for allowing the game to go on there, but I wonder what a comparison between that money plus the money they get from people actually playing the game and the sales delta looks like.
That’s clearly not a consistent trend, given what other developers have had to say:
Even increased sales on other platforms on occasion:
Now, the common denominator for these games is that they are indie games and exposure is very important. Since the article, and part of the report it quotes, appears to be in context of Activision’s concern about putting its titles on Game Pass, I am guessing that the concern is with AAA games losing sales going to Game Pass, which would likely be true. They don’t need the exposure Game Pass would bring.
Hell, I’m betting the biggest victim of this “cannibalization”, if we’re going to call it that, is Microsoft itself. Why would anyone buy their biggest games when you get them day one on Game Pass? I didn’t buy Gears 5 or Halo Infinite or even Pentiment, because I don’t have to. But if we’re going to call Game Pass’ entire reason for existence “cannibalization” then I have to wonder why something so plainly evident is even worthy of a news article.
It’s an analysis of the aggregate effect. There will always be outliers that don’t adhere to a trend. That’s why you don’t rely on anecdotes.
I guess they mean a decline in comparison with a baseline ‘control’ sample of games (no put in gamepass).
About what some devs has said, it could be games gain a boost on the first 5 days as it can be free publicity for your game in a market where it’s hard to stand out over the competition, but after that to suppose a steeper decline over lifetime sales.
Anecdotal evidence aside, I could imagine that there was a general boost effect in the early years. After all, GP did have a smaller subscriber base then because the service was new, Microsoft’s first-party line-up was notably smaller prior to their big acquisition spree (in particular: Bethesda), there weren’t any collaborations like EA Play, and PC Game Pass wasn’t a thing yet. So, I can see how an indie game like let’s say Descenders would benefit from the exposure.
That also said, I always expected it to be a ‘money in the bank vs. potential money in the bank’ scenario for developers. Accepting that one would potentially lower the overall longterm sales a game might have, but getting that guaranteed upfront payment from Microsoft. I know some folks who got picked up by GP in the early days before there were any real insights on how that would affect your sales. It was a multiplatform game, and they figured GP will lower their overall sales, but the deal also meant they were able to recoup the development costs of the game before it even launched. Which is nothing to sneeze at when you’re an indie.
Which again, I would expect to be amplified for a triple A game, personally. A 10% (just to pick a number) drop for Madden 2023 over one year will be more than many other indie games combined.
Madden 23 is a weird one as it would be available on EA Play (and therefore GPU) anyway.
Replace it with the latest MLB The Show, then.
Also a tricky one as it has never been on Xbox without being on Game Pass day one.
Yeah, that’s my point, it’s a triple-A day one Game Pass release. How would the game’s sales differ if it were not? Not an insignificant amount, I’m guessing.