It will be nice to actually have off from work this year on the day of the storm, the BLC are much more enjoyable if not at work or on the road. :)
If y’all will indulge me in some weathergeeking…;)
Euro model this afternoon painted a dire picture for DC/Baltimore. But it may be a bit of an outlier with a southern path for the storm that “only” gives NYC 6-10".
NAM model ran about 8pm. Much bigger storm, with snow filling a corridor from Nashville/Memphis heading ENE. More northerly track. Full I95 corridor impact. Head NE when it hits the coast. Problem: NAM is really accurate inside 48 hours. Beyond that, it’s pretty awful and wobbly.
GFS model is underway and up to 72 hours. Will post when we know. Will be most accurate picture of storm impact possibilities we’ve gotten.
EURO runs again at 1am EST. Will be really fascinating to see how it and GFS converge. Maybe more accurate idea than GFS.
First reaction to GFS model?
This is Hurricane Sandy all over again. More in a bit.
22:30 GFS model snowfall totals. This would be…something.
EURO starting its run. Has been the outlier, suggesting the storm blasts a more straight line to the south and not heading up the coast as much. Will see if it finds some commonality to GFS and CMC (the Canadian model ran right after GFS and essentially echoed it.)
EDIT: Euro moving much slower, tracks south, then gets to the coast…and matches up with GFS and starts tracking up the coast instead of scooting out to sea…and with lots more moisture it picks up in the gulf. Holeeeeeee
Significance of EURO is that its the first model we have with the Pacific storm entirely on land. So, yeah.
I’m watching this with interest from my vantage point just north of that line along the Ohio.
I am in PA , just about where that number 4 is in green, I hope it stays at 4 inches. :)
I’m in southeastern NH - pretty big difference between the models and the impact here, but it’s looking like we will either miss it entirely or get a few inches. Whew.
I don’t doubt that there’s going to be a butt-load of snow, but I feel like the weathermen always whip the public into a frenzy on the first big storm of the season. And they seem to love making the big predictions far in advance of knowing the track of the storm. I’m in Northern Va, same as Trigg, on the 30 to 35 inch area, but I’m not panicking… yet. Definitely going to spend the weekend inside, though!
I live just south of DC and everyone seems to be looking around at each other and tacitly asking if it is OK to lose our shit just yet.
My 8th-grade daughter is indecently excited, even though the storm won’t technically hit until halfway through the school day on Friday. Her hope is that it will be such a massive storm that school will be canceled all NEXT week as well… which is not an unreasonable idea given the somewhat anemic snow removal equipment we have around here.
My jeep that I’ve been rebuilding is sitting in the (frigid) garage with half the transmission disassembled. My wife has informed me in no uncertain terms that this vehicle WILL be fully operational by Friday morning or I have to find a good divorce attorney. I also need to drag the snow-blower out from under the deck (where it sits 363 days out of the year) and make sure that it is fully gassed-up and ready to go.
My wife will be running to the store today to pick up a week’s worth of frozen dinners. I have plenty of scotch. My house is on the same grid that powers Dulles Airport, and all the lines are buried, so there is practically no chance of losing power.
This may be the weekend that I finally crack open Fallout 4.
Right now it’s sorta the opposite. It’s us weather geeks going nuts and overhyping. The Weather Channel and NWS right now are both loathe to make crazy predictions, and so they’re not. Which…I dunno. I mean, right now TWC has Northern Virginia looking at 6-8 inches of snow. They may be right to be skeptical.
Still…I’d plan for something a tad more dire, just in case.
CraigM
1993
So it looks like about 2 inches for me, according to that model. Considering that a light dusting overnight (about .5" or less) caused my commute to increase 3.5 fold, I’m not too keen on another snow right now. 1:45 in the car this morning, and I’m fit to burn it all down.
This is Chicago people, get your shit together.
On the plus side the power at my work is flaky as all get out, and we’ve already had half a dozen power flickers this week. So maybe it’ll be enough to knock out the lines for a day. Adults can appreciate a snow day too.
First NAM run with the storm at landfall running now.
It’s sort of agreeing with last night’s EURO and GFS a little. Will post more in a bit.
Oh, and as they say…keep in mind that models are not forecasts or predictions. They’re potential computer-generated scenarios based on the current snapshot of events. Storm has 2 1/2 days of movement.
The biggest thing about this particular storm that has folks a little geeked is the consistency of the modeling so far. A bit unprecedented.
NAM consistent with others, calling for 2 feet or so in the DC area, much more to the west. (Loudoun County gets pummeled in the NAM model just finished.)
Usual caveat: NAM is notoriously inaccurate at 48+, 60+ hours, which is what we’re at. That it shows agreement with GFS, Euro, and CMC however is worth heeding.
NWS throws down. Posts a blizzard watch for the greater DC area, stretching out 75 miles in every direction, west into the mountains. Watch in effect Friday afternoon through Sunday AM.
Significance is, they’re posting it 48 hours before the first snowflakes fall in this. If you live in the area, get prepared.
Wow. Maryland looks pretty fucked.
GFS for daytime running. It’s been the “oh shit” model…
SO MUCH FOR GLOBAL WARMING! RIGHT?! RIGHT!?!?
- Every tea party member in your office for the week following the snow.
