The Mother 'Effin WEATHER Thread

[triggercut]

Latest GFS restores some sanity for most. But for those of us around DC? Weee!

[Timex]

Hey, it’s cool. DC Deals with snow pretty well.

…

[Alan_Dunkin]

SO MUCH FOR GLOBAL WARMING! RIGHT?! RIGHT!?!?

• Every tea party member in your office for the week following the snow.

This is a step in logic that escapes many; if there’s such a big snowstorm, how is the planet warming? It’s because the planet is warming you idiots. Warmer climate will produce more storms, more humidity will mean winter storms with high precipitation, rather than just drier cold weather. Ugh.

Meanwhile, in California, El Nino has so far done exactly what we’ve needed it to do: produce trains of storm systems that are giving us lots of nice precipitation to refill the reservoirs and rebuild the Sierra snowpack. Even if this continued through March I’m not sure we’d be out of a drought officially, but it all helps, and it’s exactly what we need (which is not to say the rain isn’t causing issues, it is, including a few horrific wrecks over the weekend).

— Alan

[triggercut]

New NAM run doesn’t disappoint.

Which takes us to minimum/most likely/maximum snow output predictions. A quick commentary: one way to look at this, if you’re prone to bitching about meteorology, is to see this as some massive bet-hedging. I disagree. This is a storm THAT HASN’T EVEN FORMED YET, with elements developing in Texas right now.

Which is crazy that they can predict stuff like this, to me. It’s neat. And anyone who took even Physics for Lunkheads in high school (me!) knows that atmospheric changes of a minute nature can throw storm tracks off.

So. Minimum prediction at the moment from NWS:

“Most likely”:

Max:

This is the DC/Balmer weather station group at NWS, so it’s tightly focused. Once NAM finishes up, I’ll try to post a larger map for folks up the coast!

[triggercut]

New NAM snow forecast potentials. One huge caveat: this particular model gets a little loose and fast with QPF outputs (that’s the amount of liquid in the storm that becomes actual precip, in this case snow.) Probably safe to reduce these by at least 25-33%. Still.

[Fishbreath]

Sigh. Never a good blizzard in Pittsburgh, no.

[Aleck]

This may be the first time where my travel plans get completely shafted by a snow storm. My family and I were supposed to fly back to DC on Saturday afternoon. That ain’t happening. We’re now rebooked for Sunday evening, but my guess is that ain’t happening, either.

So I guess we’re stuck here in Florida for the time being. Could be worse.

Be safe, DC Qt3ers.

[Balasarius]

This is a step in logic that escapes many; if there’s such a big snowstorm, how is the planet warming? It’s because the planet is warming you idiots. Warmer climate will produce more storms, more humidity will mean winter storms with high precipitation, rather than just drier cold weather. Ugh.

Meanwhile, in California, El Nino has so far done exactly what we’ve needed it to do: produce trains of storm systems that are giving us lots of nice precipitation to refill the reservoirs and rebuild the Sierra snowpack. Even if this continued through March I’m not sure we’d be out of a drought officially, but it all helps, and it’s exactly what we need (which is not to say the rain isn’t causing issues, it is, including a few horrific wrecks over the weekend).

— Alan

I’d be terrified if I was those folks in Pacifica. Just waiting for their house to fall into the ocean.

[Alan_Dunkin]

I’d be terrified if I was those folks in Pacifica. Just waiting for their house to fall into the ocean.

Eh, only if you lived on those cliffs would I be a bit worried… they did have that sinkhole open up the other day though right on the beachwalk.

— Alan

[triggercut]

Euro running…

Tomorrow we’re going to start seeing more casts based on moisture and surface and high altitude pressure systems. Those will be telling.

[Shellfishguy]

The latest maps upthread (thanks Triggercut!) put my little slice of Maryland at about 24", better than the 28" to 44" the earlier maps were showing! I’m fairly close to the bay so we usually see a little less than places inland. My work building had a blown hot water pipe and no heat so we had a couple paid days off while it was fixed. Took that chance to do the grocery stock up and even grabbed a second shovel. Though after injuring my back late last year I think it will be up to the three teenagers to get out and shovel this one(hehe).

[triggercut]

The latest maps upthread (thanks Triggercut!) put my little slice of Maryland at about 24", better than the 28" to 44" the earlier maps were showing! I’m fairly close to the bay so we usually see a little less than places inland. My work building had a blown hot water pipe and no heat so we had a couple paid days off while it was fixed. Took that chance to do the grocery stock up and even grabbed a second shovel. Though after injuring my back late last year I think it will be up to the three teenagers to get out and shovel this one(hehe).

This won’t be a snow to shovel with a bad back! It’s going to be very, very wet and heavy. That, combined with winds are going to be a nightmare. So…yeah. Get the teenagers to shovel.

And especially there in Annapolis, you guys could see sustained winds between 30-35 for most of Saturday, with gusts going up to 50 or so. Be prepared for outages if you have above-ground power lines.

[triggercut]

Euro run last night shows a narrower band that hits DC and Virginia and DelMarVA coasts very hard. NAM currently running, and it takes a more northerly swing at the end to impact heavy on Philadelphia and central NJ, NYC, and SNE.

Stay tuned. We’ll get another EURO and GFS this AM to try to resolve that discrepancy…but when in doubt, toss NAM and GFS. EURO is not known as “King EURO” to weather geeks for nothing.

[ArmandoPenblade]

Fingers crossed that this thing entirely bypasses NC. Finally got the gf booked with a good cardiologist for tomorrow afternoon, and they’re calling for heavy freezing rain all day and snow in the night. Not nearly in the amounts you DC folks seem to be looking at (and thanks a million to triggercut for the fascinating analysis and modeling runs), but then again, North Carolinians handle snow about as well as armies handle winter invasions of Russia. Which is to say that they die by the boatloads and completely lose any sense of, uh sense. This might be a terrible metaphor.

In any case, it’s very likely to be completely bonkers to step within 100 ft of a North Carolinian road tomorrow, so guess we get to enjoy another 2 months of trying to get this thing re-booked -.-

[triggercut]

Fingers crossed that this thing entirely bypasses NC. Finally got the gf booked with a good cardiologist for tomorrow afternoon, and they’re calling for heavy freezing rain all day and snow in the night. Not nearly in the amounts you DC folks seem to be looking at (and thanks a million to triggercut for the fascinating analysis and modeling runs), but then again, North Carolinians handle snow about as well as armies handle winter invasions of Russia. Which is to say that they die by the boatloads and completely lose any sense of, uh sense. This might be a terrible metaphor.

In any case, it’s very likely to be completely bonkers to step within 100 ft of a North Carolinian road tomorrow, so guess we get to enjoy another 2 months of trying to get this thing re-booked -.-

Right now we’re in some severe modeling discrepancies that present a valid reason why good local meteorologists are so necessary. They can look for anomalies in the model runs that may be getting picked up and overcompensated and use those models as a base to come up with local forecasts for various areas on the east coast.

I say that, because right now as we wait for EURO to run for this morning, we’ve got a big discrepancy between the two big “American” models, NAM and GFS. NAM shows the storm taking a more crushing, up the coast northerly track, with the massive, closed off cell going offshore and then sitting around the Chesapeake and dumping. GFS shows that sucker going offshore around OBX, drifting north, and heading out to sea.

So, what’s the discrepancy? Well, if you’re in the Virginia Blue Ridge on into the WVA panhandle, Maryland, NoVA, DC and Baltimore…not much. You’re getting plastered. But here’s the precip total projections for NAM and GFS runs, both of which completed within an hour or so ago this morning.

Before I post these, please note that ESPECIALLY the NAM model tends to overdo it on precip totals. Look at these and reduce by 25-50%.

OK, then, deep breath. NAM:

Again, barnfulls of grains of salt.

Here’s GFS, which doesn’t overdo it as much on moisture and precip totals.

So what does all this mean? For Armando, it means that especially eastern NC is going to get hit pretty good. Don’t think that’s avoidable at this point, and it looks like a nasty mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow.

The biggie for a lot of folks here is PA/NJ/NYC/SNE. NAM says you’re getting a foot and a half. GFS says you’re getting 6".

So find yourself a local forecaster who doesn’t wishcast based strictly on a model and actually knows how to read the things and their various anomalies and put some trust in him or her. Also, wait for EURO here in a bit to settle the argument.

But…if you’re in the DC area…get ready. Here she comes.

[triggercut]

DC area NWS switches from blizzard WATCH (which means, “We think there’s a chance it could happen”) to blizzard warning (“Here she comes.”)

Right now weather maps showing huge amounts of lightning striking in Arkansas and thunderstorms and tornadoes developing along Texas/Louisiana border.

That’s the storm. It’ll grab a whole lotta water from the gulf, and start heading ENE.

[triggercut]

Importantly, this is not a model. This is the work of NWS meteorologists looking at all models, looking at developing conditions, and making a forecast.

And EURO is running…

[Shellfishguy]

ugh wet heavy snow AND heavy winds? Time to have everyone charge up their devices. Plus I’m glad that I have that extra propane tank, at least I can cook while the power is out. Our area has gotten better over the past 10 years, but we still have issues in weather like that.

[Timex]

Someone just sent me this screenshot, taken yesterday, when DC had only received ONE inch of snow.

I can only assume that by tomorrow people will have resorted to cannibalism.

[Abiding_Dude]

Here in Sterling, VA (in Loudoun in Northern Virginia in the northern-most county shaped like a boot (we are in the laces of the boot)) we are probably going to get 24 inches or so. We are fired up and ready to go!